Romo v Manziel

[jobberone]

Let me say not looking for Cowboys to draft manziel but for argument sake say Dallas does well there is more than 1 pick in the draft so the notion that they are giving up making the team competitive with Romo I don't think is true. In terms of cost for the 16th pick last year Buffalo with E.J. Manuel contract was four-year deal worth $8.9 million, with a $4.84 million signing bonus. The days of rookies coming in and getting 30 or 40 mill signing bonus making pro bowl money is gone. So the contract would not force Dallas to do anything in terms of sitting or playing the player

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/e.j.-manuel/

That's true but you are also giving up a #1 pick for a rookie to sit the bench for three years give or take.

 

[jobberone]

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. You can't neglect the qb position simply bc other teams have picked busts.

If you want a quick turnaround like Indianapolis, look at the blueprint for how they did it. Major structural changes were needed there just like theyre needed in dallas now. They werent scared to let Peyton go. They cleaned house. And they picked luck. They will be competitive for the next decade bc of it. This is what I'm hoping for next year.

Unless you like Carr or Bridgewater esp the latter you aren't getting a Luck with the 16th pick. Big difference. I don't think there's a Luck in this draft. I do like Carr and Bridgewater so if they go that route I promise not to throw things. Not the best idea IMO.

 

[LOBO7]

That's true but you are also giving up a #1 pick for a rookie to sit the bench for three years give or take.

I hope your right, I hope he last three years.
If JF is there at 16 I say go for it, especially if he is the BPA on their list.
The last thing I want to see is the Eagles drafting him.

 

[jobberone]

I hope your right, I hope he last three years.
If JF is there at 16 I say go for it, especially if he is the BPA on their list.
The last thing I want to see is the Eagles drafting him.

I respect your opinion but I hope the Eagles do draft him. He can sit behind their starter and they can waste their number one this year. [ I reserve the right to flip flop on this matter.]

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

If there was serious thought about drafting Manziel in the first round, the team would almost certainly have to make Romo a June 1st cut this year. Before you respond, let me go further. By drafting Manziel you are already effectively giving up on making this team competitive with Romo. That means there is very little reason to carry Romo's contract any longer than you have to. You aren't planning on winning this year with Romo, and you wouldn't be next year.

Making Romo a June 1st cut effectively does nothing to this year's salary cap figure, and gives us a 9 million dollar cap hit next year, which would put us about a million over a projected 140 million dollar salary cap, but more importantly it frees up 2016 and 2017 (~20 million per year).

Your logic is faulty saying we need to cut Romo this year as a June 1st cut if we are going to draft Manziel or another QB. Romo's base salary this year is 1m and it is guaranteed. He has already been paid the $$$ for redoing his deal. So all we are talking about is cap money. Also remember that 7.5m of Romo's base was guaranteed for 2015 when he was on the roster after the third business day of the new league year. So using your logic that he would have to be a June 1st cut this year....here is the cap impact....the only thing I am not sure of is if that guaranteed 7.5m of next year's base would accelerate into this year or stay on next year's books. I think it accelerates to this year.

June 1st 2014 cap cut
Current hit = 11.773m, 2015 =27.773m, 2016 = 17.635m, 2017 = 21.5m, 2018 = 22m, 2019 = 20.5
2014 hit with June 1st cut = 1m 2014 sal + 7.5m 2015 sal + 10.773m pro rata bonus = 18.273m + approx $400k to add a bottom salary to cap...so this year's cap would be 6.9m higher. We currently have 5.5m in cap space and have about 2.5-3m that is needed for draft picks so realistically we have about 2.5-3m in cap surplus. We still have Smith and Bryant to renegotiate on...while we can wait till next year....we still would be 3.9 to 4.4m over this year's cap. So that means we have to restructure Witten or Carr, moving more cap into coming years. 2015 hit would be almost 30m, an increase of almost 2.3m. The 2016-2019 figures come off the book. Since Manziel's cap hits would be covered by the 2.5-3m allotted above for draft picks there isn't an increase for him per say. It's perfect because Manuel, a QB was the 16th pick last year and his first year hit was 1.65m and second year will be 2.019m. So we would have over 20.2m in cap space tied up this year by the starting QB in theory, and over 32.0m in 2015.

If the 2015 guaranteed base salary 7.5m doesn't accelerate and just stays on next years cap....it would just move 7.5m from 2014 to 2015. Either way....bad mojo.

Of course, if we cut him now....the other 7.5m of his base salary for next year might hit the books because it is guaranteed for injury. If we are cutting Romo now, almost impossible to prove that it isn't due to injury. Doubly bad mojo.

The alternative of drafting Manziel(or another QB) would be to keep Romo this year and then cut next year as a June 1st cut but it has to be within 3 day of the new league year or 7.5m of his 2016 salary gets guaranteed.

So in theory we would be keeping Romo's 11.773m hit this year(only 1m is actual cash being paid out) plus adding the Manziel first year cap number of about 1.65m for a net of about 12.4m tied up at QB.

Make the June 1st cut within the 3 days in 2015 and the numbers are:
Current: 2015 =27.773m, 2016 = 17.635m, 2017 = 21.5m, 2018 = 22m, 2019 = 20.5
June 1st cut 2015 - 7.5m guar salary + 10.773m pro rata SB = cap savings of 9.5m, 2016 cap 19.135m (a 1.5m increase in cap hit) 2017-19 gone.

So long story short......if we are thinking of drafting QB....you do it now, keep Romo this year (only costs 1m in real money as he already got the money for restructuring), make him a June 1st cut next year but complete it within first 3 days of league year. It is the best way to spread the money, give Romo a year to win and Manziel (or whoever the QB is) a year to learn.

It doesn't have to be a first round QB....any QB you think could come in and be ready to play in 2015...whether it be Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Murray, Garrapalo or anyone else likely to be picked in first 3 rounds.

 

[jobberone]

The ole Romo Manziel trick. I love a new storyline.

 

[Doomsday101]

That's true but you are also giving up a #1 pick for a rookie to sit the bench for three years give or take.

I understand that and again not saying we should but there is logic in it. Yes he would sit and the cost factor given the rookie cap limits makes it do ‘able and it is not the 1st time a rookie would sit a year or 2 behind a proven vet.

I would just as soon get Arron Murray around the 4th rd but if the draft falls a certain way and a top prospect fell to you it would make sense to take that player. If not why bother putting QB's on your draft board, just pick for need.

 

[jobberone]

I understand that and again not saying we should but there is logic in it. Yes he would sit and the cost factor given the rookie cap limits makes it do ‘able and it is not the 1st time a rookie would sit a year or 2 behind a proven vet.

I would just as soon get Arron Murray around the 4th rd but if the draft falls a certain way and a top prospect fell to you it would make sense to take that player. If not why bother putting QB's on your draft board, just pick for need.

You rank QBs this year so that if one falls then you can discuss it as an option and not sit there an discuss who is an option. I'll be shocked if we draft a QB early. I like Murray and Shaw day 3; if they take any QB at all.

 

[Doomsday101]

You rank QBs this year so that if one falls then you can discuss it as an option and not sit there an discuss who is an option. I'll be shocked if we draft a QB early. I like Murray and Shaw day 3; if they take any QB at all.

and if a top QB falls to 16 then it becomes an option. For the top QB to fall likey means some of the defense guys we are looking at have gone before our pick. Like you I would shocked if we get a QB early.

My point early in this thread was that taking a QB does not mean they have given up on the season or even Romo it just means a top player on your board is sitting there to take if you choose. Unlike past years these contract are not pro bowl type contracts they are much more manageable the 16th overall last year was not a strain on the cap for the Bills so a team is not forced to start that QB right away

 

[Galian Beast]

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. You can't neglect the qb position simply bc other teams have picked busts.

If you want a quick turnaround like Indianapolis, look at the blueprint for how they did it. Major structural changes were needed there just like theyre needed in dallas now. They werent scared to let Peyton go. They cleaned house. And they picked luck. They will be competitive for the next decade bc of it. This is what I'm hoping for next year.

I didn't say we should neglect it, but that doesn't mean taking a QB at any time is prudent. There will be a time for Romo's career to end at least with the QBs, yet we haven't reached that point.

Your failure to realize that most teams that draft qbs end up with busts, and teams that have to draft multiple QBs early usually end up as jokes in the NFL.... Browns, Bills, Jags, Dolphins... e.t.c.

 

[Galian Beast]

Your logic is faulty saying we need to cut Romo this year as a June 1st cut if we are going to draft Manziel or another QB. Romo's base salary this year is 1m and it is guaranteed. He has already been paid the $$$ for redoing his deal. So all we are talking about is cap money. Also remember that 7.5m of Romo's base was guaranteed for 2015 when he was on the roster after the third business day of the new league year. So using your logic that he would have to be a June 1st cut this year....here is the cap impact....the only thing I am not sure of is if that guaranteed 7.5m of next year's base would accelerate into this year or stay on next year's books. I think it accelerates to this year.

June 1st 2014 cap cut
Current hit = 11.773m, 2015 =27.773m, 2016 = 17.635m, 2017 = 21.5m, 2018 = 22m, 2019 = 20.5
2014 hit with June 1st cut = 1m 2014 sal + 7.5m 2015 sal + 10.773m pro rata bonus = 18.273m + approx $400k to add a bottom salary to cap...so this year's cap would be 6.9m higher. We currently have 5.5m in cap space and have about 2.5-3m that is needed for draft picks so realistically we have about 2.5-3m in cap surplus. We still have Smith and Bryant to renegotiate on...while we can wait till next year....we still would be 3.9 to 4.4m over this year's cap. So that means we have to restructure Witten or Carr, moving more cap into coming years. 2015 hit would be almost 30m, an increase of almost 2.3m. The 2016-2019 figures come off the book. Since Manziel's cap hits would be covered by the 2.5-3m allotted above for draft picks there isn't an increase for him per say. It's perfect because Manuel, a QB was the 16th pick last year and his first year hit was 1.65m and second year will be 2.019m. So we would have over 20.2m in cap space tied up this year by the starting QB in theory, and over 32.0m in 2015.

If the 2015 guaranteed base salary 7.5m doesn't accelerate and just stays on next years cap....it would just move 7.5m from 2014 to 2015. Either way....bad mojo.

Of course, if we cut him now....the other 7.5m of his base salary for next year might hit the books because it is guaranteed for injury. If we are cutting Romo now, almost impossible to prove that it isn't due to injury. Doubly bad mojo.

The alternative of drafting Manziel(or another QB) would be to keep Romo this year and then cut next year as a June 1st cut but it has to be within 3 day of the new league year or 7.5m of his 2016 salary gets guaranteed.

So in theory we would be keeping Romo's 11.773m hit this year(only 1m is actual cash being paid out) plus adding the Manziel first year cap number of about 1.65m for a net of about 12.4m tied up at QB.

Make the June 1st cut within the 3 days in 2015 and the numbers are:
Current: 2015 =27.773m, 2016 = 17.635m, 2017 = 21.5m, 2018 = 22m, 2019 = 20.5
June 1st cut 2015 - 7.5m guar salary + 10.773m pro rata SB = cap savings of 9.5m, 2016 cap 19.135m (a 1.5m increase in cap hit) 2017-19 gone.

So long story short......if we are thinking of drafting QB....you do it now, keep Romo this year (only costs 1m in real money as he already got the money for restructuring), make him a June 1st cut next year but complete it within first 3 days of league year. It is the best way to spread the money, give Romo a year to win and Manziel (or whoever the QB is) a year to learn.

It doesn't have to be a first round QB....any QB you think could come in and be ready to play in 2015...whether it be Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Murray, Garrapalo or anyone else likely to be picked in first 3 rounds.

It doesn't seem like you understand how the cap works...

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

It doesn't seem like you understand how the cap works...

Yeah LOL....that's it.

I know pretty well how the cap works. Which part do you think I am wrong on?

Your numbers don't include the 1m guaranteed this year in salary and 7.5m in guaranteed salary for 2015....the only question is whether it gets accelerated if he gets cut now. Other than that the numbers are what they are. Worst move they could make from a cap standpoint would be to draft Manziel and cut Romo now. Makes much more sense if they wanted a QB to keep Romo at least this year and possibly even 2016.

Outside of that...Manziel is not the best choice to win now and keep Garrett's job....and the new Coach that would come in is gonna want to get his own guy. You know how that goes.

 

[ringmaster]

and if a top QB falls to 16 then it becomes an option. For the top QB to fall likey means some of the defense guys we are looking at have gone before our pick. Like you I would shocked if we get a QB early.

My point early in this thread was that taking a QB does not mean they have given up on the season or even Romo it just means a top player on your board is sitting there to take if you choose. Unlike past years these contract are not pro bowl type contracts they are much more manageable the 16th overall last year was not a strain on the cap for the Bills so a team is not forced to start that QB right away

I see what you're saying Dooms and that is why the media is hoping that Manziel falls to that spot and Dallas drafts him that would be nirvana for them coming up with the headlines like "Drafting Manziel could spell the end for Romo" just to name a few if a QB falls to them if they think he can be the heir apparent to Tony then I'm all for it.

 

[Doomsday101]

I see what you're saying Dooms and that is why the media is hoping that Manziel falls to that spot and Dallas drafts him that would be nirvana for them coming up with the headlines like "Drafting Manziel could spell the end for Romo" just to name a few if a QB falls to them if they think he can be the heir apparent to Tony then I'm all for it.

I think Romo will remain the starting QB for at least the next 2 years. While I'm not a big Johnny Football fan I do understand based on the rookie pay scale that it is very possible to select a QB at 16 and not pay a kings ransom for that player as it has been in the past. In my view one of the positives that the NFL has put in place.

 

[jnday]

Right, but the only position that impacts your entire team's future is the QB position. Right now we have a franchise QB, and he gives us our best shot at winning. If we build around him and build a defense that is the most logical course of action. Drafting a QB, giving up on Romo, and hoping that he turns out great... it's a long shot.

Building a defense is going to take more than a year or two. Romo will be history by then. The salary cap hit for Manziel to sit behind Romo is a small price to pay for proper development of a future starting QB. If a good QB prospect drops in the draft, you take him. It rarely happens, so you better take advantage of it. For all the talk of never repeating the post-Aikman years, very few fans wants to sacrifice the investment needed. With Romo's health and age , it is a terrible gamble to pass on a good QB.

 

[jnday]

Your logic is faulty saying we need to cut Romo this year as a June 1st cut if we are going to draft Manziel or another QB. Romo's base salary this year is 1m and it is guaranteed. He has already been paid the $$$ for redoing his deal. So all we are talking about is cap money. Also remember that 7.5m of Romo's base was guaranteed for 2015 when he was on the roster after the third business day of the new league year. So using your logic that he would have to be a June 1st cut this year....here is the cap impact....the only thing I am not sure of is if that guaranteed 7.5m of next year's base would accelerate into this year or stay on next year's books. I think it accelerates to this year.

June 1st 2014 cap cut
Current hit = 11.773m, 2015 =27.773m, 2016 = 17.635m, 2017 = 21.5m, 2018 = 22m, 2019 = 20.5
2014 hit with June 1st cut = 1m 2014 sal + 7.5m 2015 sal + 10.773m pro rata bonus = 18.273m + approx $400k to add a bottom salary to cap...so this year's cap would be 6.9m higher. We currently have 5.5m in cap space and have about 2.5-3m that is needed for draft picks so realistically we have about 2.5-3m in cap surplus. We still have Smith and Bryant to renegotiate on...while we can wait till next year....we still would be 3.9 to 4.4m over this year's cap. So that means we have to restructure Witten or Carr, moving more cap into coming years. 2015 hit would be almost 30m, an increase of almost 2.3m. The 2016-2019 figures come off the book. Since Manziel's cap hits would be covered by the 2.5-3m allotted above for draft picks there isn't an increase for him per say. It's perfect because Manuel, a QB was the 16th pick last year and his first year hit was 1.65m and second year will be 2.019m. So we would have over 20.2m in cap space tied up this year by the starting QB in theory, and over 32.0m in 2015.

If the 2015 guaranteed base salary 7.5m doesn't accelerate and just stays on next years cap....it would just move 7.5m from 2014 to 2015. Either way....bad mojo.

Of course, if we cut him now....the other 7.5m of his base salary for next year might hit the books because it is guaranteed for injury. If we are cutting Romo now, almost impossible to prove that it isn't due to injury. Doubly bad mojo.

The alternative of drafting Manziel(or another QB) would be to keep Romo this year and then cut next year as a June 1st cut but it has to be within 3 day of the new league year or 7.5m of his 2016 salary gets guaranteed.

So in theory we would be keeping Romo's 11.773m hit this year(only 1m is actual cash being paid out) plus adding the Manziel first year cap number of about 1.65m for a net of about 12.4m tied up at QB.

Make the June 1st cut within the 3 days in 2015 and the numbers are:
Current: 2015 =27.773m, 2016 = 17.635m, 2017 = 21.5m, 2018 = 22m, 2019 = 20.5
June 1st cut 2015 - 7.5m guar salary + 10.773m pro rata SB = cap savings of 9.5m, 2016 cap 19.135m (a 1.5m increase in cap hit) 2017-19 gone.

So long story short......if we are thinking of drafting QB....you do it now, keep Romo this year (only costs 1m in real money as he already got the money for restructuring), make him a June 1st cut next year but complete it within first 3 days of league year. It is the best way to spread the money, give Romo a year to win and Manziel (or whoever the QB is) a year to learn.

It doesn't have to be a first round QB....any QB you think could come in and be ready to play in 2015...whether it be Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Murray, Garrapalo or anyone else likely to be picked in first 3 rounds.

The Romo contract was a bad decision from the start. It has the team in a position where they are stuck with a 34 year old QB that is coming off two back surgeries and it will put a strain on getting his replacement as he declines.

 

[Galian Beast]

Building a defense is going to take more than a year or two. Romo will be history by then. The salary cap hit for Manziel to sit behind Romo is a small price to pay for proper development of a future starting QB. If a good QB prospect drops in the draft, you take him. It rarely happens, so you better take advantage of it. For all the talk of never repeating the post-Aikman years, very few fans wants to sacrifice the investment needed. With Romo's health and age , it is a terrible gamble to pass on a good QB.

If the team doesn't think it can win with Romo, and thinks it should draft a QB to replace him, they should release him, and use that salary cap money in the future to help out said new QB.

Romo got his contract before the back surgery. And the first back surgery was on a cyst.

 

[Galian Beast]

Yeah LOL....that's it.

I know pretty well how the cap works. Which part do you think I am wrong on?

Your numbers don't include the 1m guaranteed this year in salary and 7.5m in guaranteed salary for 2015....the only question is whether it gets accelerated if he gets cut now. Other than that the numbers are what they are. Worst move they could make from a cap standpoint would be to draft Manziel and cut Romo now. Makes much more sense if they wanted a QB to keep Romo at least this year and possibly even 2016.

Outside of that...Manziel is not the best choice to win now and keep Garrett's job....and the new Coach that would come in is gonna want to get his own guy. You know how that goes.

His 2015 salary is only guaranteed for injury, not if he is released, which is why my numbers don't include any guarantees. As I said, cutting him in June has nearly no impact on this year's salary cap.

 

[Avery]

Am I the only one who sees Manziel as a poor man's Michael Vick?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

If there was serious thought about drafting Manziel in the first round, the team would almost certainly have to make Romo a June 1st cut this year. Before you respond, let me go further. By drafting Manziel you are already effectively giving up on making this team competitive with Romo. That means there is very little reason to carry Romo's contract any longer than you have to. You aren't planning on winning this year with Romo, and you wouldn't be next year.

Making Romo a June 1st cut effectively does nothing to this year's salary cap figure, and gives us a 9 million dollar cap hit next year, which would put us about a million over a projected 140 million dollar salary cap, but more importantly it frees up 2016 and 2017 (~20 million per year).

Rebuilding of this nature simply doesn't make any sense. There is very little reason to believe that Manziel would be more effective than Romo with the current team, and by the team the team is rebuilt around Manziel, you're looking at some pretty expensive contracts all around.

The most prudent action to take is not investing in a first round quarterback at the moment, and continuing to build up the defense. The correct time to draft a replacement for Romo is around the time in which this team is rebuilt in other areas through the draft. This maximizes the ability of a young QB to step into an already decent team, as opposed to a team that struggles and goes 8-8 with an already top 5 QB.

The biggest worry is Romo's back, but I'd like to make the argument that betting on Romo and his health is a much more sensible bet than rebuilding this team and giving up on Romo.

For those who will try to make the argument (who probably didn't read this whole post) that we should keep Romo and draft Manziel. My counter to that idea is how much do you think Manziel will cost as a top 16 pick, yet not directly contribute towards any short term success. You are now taking up salary cap space and using valuable cap resources for someone sitting on the bench. On top of that how many years are you going to pay Romo while Manziel sits? You've got 4 years, with a 5 year option, and then you have to start paying pretty big money (assuming he even works out). In the mean while, you have no money to help build a team around Manziel, and all the core players he would be playing with will also become older and more expensive. It's simply not sensible.

why would you be giving up being competitive. that's the wrong assumption. Lets say we do draft Manziel. then he sits and learns for a couple of years behind romo. you can still be competitive. didn't GB do that when they went from Favre to Rodgers? or Philly from Vick to Folk?