Rookie LBs Making Mark; Hitchens Gets Starter Reps

[Bluestang]

http://isportsweb.com/2014/05/02/seattle-seahawks-five-late-round-sleepers-target/

4. Anthony Hitchens, OLB, Iowa

This 6’0”, 240-pound linebacker plays with great aggression and packs a lot of pop in his tackles. He’s not an injury risk, missing only game at Iowa, and while is short, he plays much bigger than his reality. He’s not a coverage linebacker, but he will fight in the trenches and will be unyielding against bigger-bodied blockers. Right now, he’s either getting drafted in the seventh round or will be a priority free agent. Keep in mind that Malcolm Smith was a seventh round pick, and he has come up big. Smith and Hitchens are the same height, and Smith is 14 pounds lighter, so criticisms about Hitchens’ size may not have too much merit. A hard-nosed guy out of the Big Ten, Hitchens could become a nice backup early in his career.

This is the only report that I could find about Hitchens and the Seahawks interest in them.

Note where they thought he would fall.

I'd love to see the report where he was going to be drafted in the 4th.

 

[Risen Star]

http://isportsweb.com/2014/05/02/seattle-seahawks-five-late-round-sleepers-target/


This is the only report that I could find about Hitchens and the Seahawks interest in them.

Note where they thought he would fall.

I'd love to see the report where he was going to be drafted in the 4th.

Trust me. It was just. about. to. happen.

 

[Bluestang]

Trust me. It was just. about. to. happen.

I'm curious if this report will surface or if I'll be asked to pay for it instead.

 

[ZappaFrank]

Ooohhh. Don't hold out on us!!!

I am betting the rest of the crew is pretty awful and the coaches are trying to give a rookie reps in the hopes that he runs with it and makes the job his.

 

[Alexander]

http://isportsweb.com/2014/05/02/seattle-seahawks-five-late-round-sleepers-target/


This is the only report that I could find about Hitchens and the Seahawks interest in them.

Note where they thought he would fall.

I'd love to see the report where he was going to be drafted in the 4th.

The Seahawk interest was from that Birddog person on Twitter. Supposedly he is some sort of insider or something.

 

[Wood]

I guess we find out if Dallas knew more than other teams but many felt he was a back up. Dallas drafted him at spot that you want to see starters. There will be no middle ground. If he is legit starter than McClay looks great.

 

[Bluestang]

The Seahawk interest was from that Birddog person on Twitter. Supposedly he is some sort of insider or something.

Ah that explains it for me.

 

[Tawney88]

You have NO possible way to know that Hitchens would be available later just like people had NO possible way to know that Fred would be available later.

Obviously, if teams had a time machine and could go forward in time to see where players would be drafted, then they wouldn't take a guy in the 4th that would be available later.

While you have NO possible way to know if the Draft Media was right or wrong on Hitchens, you can look at the same Draft Media and know for certain that they were wrong on guys like Jackson Jeffcoat.

Of course I don't know and it seems odd you felt the need to point it out. It is hilarious to me that you don't think it would be safe guess that someone deemed to be A 7th round pick or UDFA, would have been there a couple rounds later. Fred was anywhere from 2 to 3 so that would have been riskier to wait on him. Hitchens not so much. Draft guides, analysts, media and front offices are wrong all the time. But that doesn't mean you take a risk when your team is full of holes and chances are high that the guy is going to be around later. You don't reach. It's a bad strategy and has contributed to the depth and talent issues we have on defense.

You're spinning your wheels trying to prove you're right. It's a faulty draft strategy regardless if it works from time to time. It's a strategy this team employs way to often and leaves us with holes. Most people rational people would agree.

 

[fatboygixxer]

I am really starting to hate all the day to day jumping around in the LB corps. Why can't we let three of these guys at least learn a position and stay there.

ook, but how do you decide which guys?

 

[Alexander]

ook, but how do you decide which guys?

It seemed pretty set until Holloman's injury. Then it looked like they just flipped everything upside down right before the dress rehearsal. Very odd.

 

[honyock]

I guess we find out if Dallas knew more than other teams but many felt he was a back up. Dallas drafted him at spot that you want to see starters. There will be no middle ground. If he is legit starter than McClay looks great.

There's a pretty big middle ground on 4th round picks in general. There was a stat floating around pre-draft - I've got the whole thing saved somewhere if I can find it - that gave the percentages of draftees, by round, who are still with the team that drafted them by the end of their rookie contract.

For 4th rounders, it was 25%. Let that sink in. That's not 4th rounders that became starters. That's 4th rounders that just are still on the team at the end of their fourth year in the league. So 75% of all 4th rounders are gone from the team that drafted them by then.

This isn't really directed to Hitchens as much as it is to fan expectations. I'd love it if Hitchens is a quality starter. Same for every Cowboys 5th round pick, 6th round, etc. But to have the expectation that a 4th rounder should be a starter...the recent history of the league, not just the Cowboys, doesn't bear that out.

It'd be nice if 4th rounders all turned into Richard Shermans. When you hit on one and he is a valuable starter, that's great. But the odds are working against you by the time you get to day three. I think that's why you see a lot of teams - not just the Cowboys - start taking flyers at around that stage in the draft.

As for Hitchens, I have no idea how he'll pan out. But if your scouts have someone rated as a 4th rounder, and the draft gurus have him much lower, how silly could it possibly be to not take him because Kiper/McShayet al didn't agree with you? You take your guy unless YOU'RE confident you can get him much lower, then you get proved wrong or right on the field, not in preseason of his rookie year.

 

[xwalker]

According to your method, if the Cowboys had drafted Jackson Jeffcoat in the 4th round, then it would have been a good pick because the draft guides said so. That does not make sense to me.

I understand that you believe what you're saying. It was a reasonable discussion with 2 different opinions but now the trolls have entered the thread. Once the trolls enter the threads to tell us Jerry sucks and RG3 is great, then I exit. Just send me a PM if you want to discuss it some more.

 

[Alexander]

There's a pretty big middle ground on 4th round picks in general. There was a stat floating around pre-draft - I've got the whole thing saved somewhere if I can find it - that gave the percentages of draftees, by round, who are still with the team that drafted them by the end of their rookie contract.

For 4th rounders, it was 25%. Let that sink in. That's not 4th rounders that became starters. That's 4th rounders that just are still on the team at the end of their fourth year in the league. So 75% of all 4th rounders are gone from the team that drafted them by then.

This isn't really directed to Hitchens as much as it is to fan expectations. I'd love it if Hitchens is a quality starter. Same for every Cowboys 5th round pick, 6th round, etc. But to have the expectation that a 4th rounder should be a starter...the recent history of the league, not just the Cowboys, doesn't bear that out.

It'd be nice if 4th rounders all turned into Richard Shermans. When you hit on one and he is a valuable starter, that's great. But the odds are working against you by the time you get to day three. I think that's why you see a lot of teams - not just the Cowboys - start taking flyers at around that stage in the draft.

As for Hitchens, I have no idea how he'll pan out. But if your scouts have someone rated as a 4th rounder, and the draft gurus have him much lower, how silly could it possibly be to not take him because Kiper/McShayet al didn't agree with you? You take your guy unless YOU'RE confident you can get him much lower, then you get proved wrong or right on the field, not in preseason of his rookie year.

The 4th round is a strange point because teams have had all night to digest the previous three rounds and start plucking those players who were, at one time, considered possible premium round choices.

It is where you pick up the talented who fell. It is one of the rounds that I would have an open mind about because I think it is crazy that scouts can say someone has a "fourth round talent". That does not exist. Players taken from rounds 4-7 are pretty much the same.

 

[honyock]

The 4th round is a strange point because teams have had all night to digest the previous three rounds and start plucking those players who were, at one time, considered possible premium round choices.

It is where you pick up the talented who fell. It is one of the rounds that I would have an open mind about because I think it is crazy that scouts can say someone has a "fourth round talent". That does not exist. Players taken from rounds 4-7 are pretty much the same.

I wouldn't go quite that far on the bolded part, but I think you're closer than most people think. That same stat I was talking about pretty much validated that. The percentages of players who stuck, dropped each round, but not really that much from round 4 to round 7.

The surprising thing to me about the article was that third rounders didn't fare that much better than fourth rounders. It got me wondering if maybe the third round isn't as much a premium round as we all think. But that's for another thread some day.

 

[Alexander]

I wouldn't go quite that far on the bolded part, but I think you're closer than most people think. That same stat I was talking about pretty much validated that. The percentages of players who stuck, dropped each round, but not really that much from round 4 to round 7.

The surprising thing to me about the article was that third rounders didn't fare that much better than fourth rounders. It got me wondering if maybe the third round isn't as much a premium round as we all think. But that's for another thread some day.

I did a poor job of explaining what I meant. It does drop from round to round obviously, but the difference between a fourth round choice and a seventh is minimal. You see some teams reach for their favorite small school players and pretend they can play, others prefer to go with stable big school products. Hitchens falls in that category. If he was not the third player taken in Dallas' entire draft, I probably would not care. It is just perception.

But it is hard to look at Hitchen's college footage and think we stole the player. He was okay then and likely to look to being okay now as a career goal.

It is not like he is a Burfict who took over games.

 

[honyock]

I did a poor job of explaining what I meant. It does drop from round to round obviously, but the difference between a fourth round choice and a seventh is minimal. You see some teams reach for their favorite small school players and pretend they can play, others prefer to go with stable big school products. Hitchens falls in that category. If he was not the third player taken in Dallas' entire draft, I probably would not care. It is just perception.

But it is hard to look at Hitchen's college footage and think we stole the player. He was okay then and likely to look to being okay now as a career goal.

It is not like he is a Burfict who took over games.

I agree with you that the Hitchens pick was probably perceived differently by a whole lot of people in part because the team traded away their 3. After the opening moments of Round 2, there was a long wait until that 4th round selection the next day. Add in the teams recent 4th round history to the frustration as well.

But I care less about a steal in that round than a solid contributor. That's pretty much a win with a 4th rounder if he contributes, and if he can be a solid starter at some point, then you made a really good pick. If you get a Sherman-like All Pro steal or land someone who turns into Geno Atkins, there's a lot of luck involved in that.

 

[Craig]

If you get a guy that can contribute as a starter/2nd stringer in their first year in the 4th round, be very happy. Hitchens hasnt shown he can do that, but if he does, people need to shut up about reaching.

 

[Tawney88]

If you get a guy that can contribute as a starter/2nd stringer in their first year in the 4th round, be very happy. Hitchens hasnt shown he can do that, but if he does, people need to shut up about reaching.

Even if he does produce it doesn't negate the reach. You get another player that can help at Hitchens spot and then grab Hitchens a round or two later. Reaching regardless of the outcome is never a good strategy.

 

[Alexander]

But I care less about a steal in that round than a solid contributor. That's pretty much a win with a 4th rounder if he contributes, and if he can be a solid starter at some point, then you made a really good pick. If you get a Sherman-like All Pro steal or land someone who turns into Geno Atkins, there's a lot of luck involved in that.

Not nearly as much as you think. If teams pick players that fit what they do best in those rounds, it can pay off and eventually becomes more skill than chance.

The problem is the fact that Dallas really does know "what they do" well enough, especially defensively, to make that tough choice that defies the pundits.

 

[Alexander]

If you get a guy that can contribute as a starter/2nd stringer in their first year in the 4th round, be very happy. Hitchens hasnt shown he can do that, but if he does, people need to shut up about reaching.

There is also something to be said to look at the back end of the draft to go with the players you think can make it.

There is a reason we do better with UDFAs. That is where the scouts dictate the targets and can say, these are the best available. It is far more specific and there is a lot less noise.