Saints went from last to 4th in defense- So does that give us hope?

[MichaelWinicki]

Maybe this would explain the difference between a 19th ranked defense in 2012 and a 32nd ranked defense in 2013:

# of snaps in 2012
Ware 896
Spencer 872
Hatcher 784
Spears 394
Lissmore 329
Brent 320
Crawford 303
Ratliff 269

# of snaps in 2013
Hayden 843
Hatcher 773
Selvie 762
Ware 648
Wilber 511
Wynn 280
Nevis 262
Brown 159

Again compare the top 3 in snaps in 2012 to the top 3 in 2013:

Ware, Spencer, Hatcher

Hayden, Hatcher, Selvie

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Sean has as much to do with that as Rob did...

At first I didn't give your post much credence.

But after thinking about and reading what others have posted, i.e. the huge flip in time of possession by the Saints offense this season combined with the generally less than average offenses the Saints faced week after week, I'm inclined to agree with you. Rob Ryan should get some props for what he did in New Orleans, but he didn't exactly turn water into wine either– at least not by himself.

 

[joseephuss]

It didn't matter who they played in 2012, they were pissed on every single week.

I don't know why there's a need to water things down by nitpicking who they played. It's not like Oakland, KC, SD or Philly were offensive juggernauts in 2012 and they put up yards on that defense.

Every team plays some garbage, some good, and a whole lot of in between. I doubt anyone would take cracks at Seattle's defense for having played Houston, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Tennessee, St. Louis twice, and Arizona twice. Not that Arizona was all that bad. Little better than average.

The initial post discussed the NFL defensive rankings. Those rankings are based solely on total yards allowed. There is more to defense than allowing yards. Looking closer at the Saints or nitpicking and they aren't as good as their NFL rank. They improved from 2012, but they weren't really the 4th best defense in the league.

Now let's nitpick the Seahawks. The league average for a team was 5575.7 yards(348.5 ppg) produced on offense. Only 10 teams finished above that league average. Seattle faced only one of those top 10 teams, the Saints and played 15 games against teams that finished below the league average in offense. The Saints put up 429 yards against the Seahawks. The worse team they faced, the Jags put up 479 yards. Again this is only based on total yards per the NFL standard. When you really nitpick the Seahawks they were good at forcing turnovers, good at limiting points and held offenses to a lower passer rating. The Aikman efficiency ratings had the Seahawks defense ranked #1. Watching them play you can see that they are really good. Their NFL ranking really is pretty close to where they should rank after you nitpick them and even though they faced some of the poorer offenses this season.

Of course, the insane yards they gained against Dallas helped put them there!

No, it really didn't. Those teams gained yards throughout the season.

 

[dstovall5]

Our only hope is if Marinelli can work his magic again this year, though this time he'll actually have talent to work with instead of guys off the street. I think we can turn this thing around if we can solidify our d-line in the draft and stay healthy this year, Claiborne, Carr, and Scandrick will definitely look a lot better with better pressure from the d-line.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Our only hope is if Marinelli can work his magic again this year, though this time he'll actually have talent to work with instead of guys off the street. I think we can turn this thing around if we can solidify our d-line in the draft and stay healthy this year, Claiborne, Carr, and Scandrick will definitely look a lot better with better pressure from the d-line.

The talent is the big thing... Look at the snap numbers given to guys who were quite frankly awful... Hayden, Wynn. Then you had the "bad" in Brown, Nevis and Wilber (as a defensive end).

There were a ton of snaps given to guys who were either below or well below average.

 

[percyhoward]

This is from an 18-season sample (1995-2012) that compared these stats to wins.

Correlation Coefficient to Win %
Points Per Drive Diff .92
Pass Rating Diff .81
Yards Per Drive Diff. 69
3rd Down Conversions Diff .64
Turnover Differential Diff .64

These stats refer to the differentials -- the offense's number minus the defense's number. Take a team's offensive point total and divide that number by their total drives. Do the same thing with the defense's points allowed and drives faced. Subtract defense from offense and you get the differential. Do that with all the teams and rank them according to that differential. Teams with the best differential will be the teams with the most wins. These are the most accurate "team efficiency rankings" that you'll get.

Things like yards, 3rd down conversions, turnovers, and even (to a lesser degree) pass rating are secondary to the most important stat -- points.

Look at the Saints', Seahawks', and Cowboys' defenses. Seattle ranked 1st in points allowed per drive, New Orleans 8th, and Dallas 30th. (If you add those teams' offensive averages in points per drive to get differentials, the team rankings put the Seahawks at 2nd, Saints 3rd, and Cowboys 17th.)

 

[NJ22]

The Saints literally went from no head coach last year to a great head coach this year. We had no head coach in 2013 and that's not changing in 2014. The team gets its toughness and discipline from the head coach not the coordinators. Hence it wouldn't matter if we had buddy Ryan or Dick lebeu as the DC.

 

[jobberone]

The Saints literally went from no head coach last year to a great head coach this year. We had no head coach in 2013 and that's not changing in 2014. The team gets its toughness and discipline from the head coach not the coordinators. Hence it wouldn't matter if we had buddy Ryan or Dick lebeu as the DC.

I thought our team was pretty tough even to the end. They just didn't have enough talent on defense.

 

[NJ22]

I thought our team was pretty tough even to the end. They just didn't have enough talent on defense.

I watch the seahawks and 9ers and i see a whole different level of hitting and swarming to the ball that I havent seen in Dallas under JG.
You Can coach effort and intensity for guys that are not 1st rd picks.

 

[percyhoward]

Maybe this would explain the difference between a 19th ranked defense in 2012 and a 32nd ranked defense in 2013...

The drop-off wasn't quite that extreme. If every defense had faced the same number of drives in 2012, we'd have ranked 27th instead of 19th.

Yards Allowed Per Drive
2012 34.11 (27th)
2013 36.48 (31st)

Points Allowed Per Drive
2012 2.14 (26th)
2013 2.31 (30th)

This defense has been terrible for the last four seasons. On a per-drive basis, Dallas ranks 31st in yards allowed since 2010.

 

[jobberone]

I watch the seahawks and 9ers and i see a whole different level of hitting and swarming to the ball that I havent seen in Dallas under JG.
You Can coach effort and intensity for guys that are not 1st rd picks.

I agree. I saw our team do the same. Where they fail is coverage, rush, and tackling. There are too many holes to overcome with just hustle. And you can teach guys to tackle but when I played there were guys who tackled you and guys who sometimes didn't. That's a big problem for me.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

This defense has been terrible for the last four seasons. On a per-drive basis, Dallas ranks 31st in yards allowed since 2010.

Agreed.

 

[Risen Star]

The Saints literally went from no head coach last year to a great head coach this year. We had no head coach in 2013 and that's not changing in 2014. The team gets its toughness and discipline from the head coach not the coordinators. Hence it wouldn't matter if we had buddy Ryan or Dick lebeu as the DC.

That's right. Blame it all on the head coach. You might get a head pat from Jerry.

I'm sick of seeing all our talent wasted by incompetent coaches. When will it end?

 

[Risen Star]

I agree. I saw our team do the same. Where they fail is coverage, rush, and tackling. There are too many holes to overcome with just hustle. And you can teach guys to tackle but when I played there were guys who tackled you and guys who sometimes didn't. That's a big problem for me.

I agree. Besides covering, rushing and tackling we're not really that bad on defense.

 

[Deep_South]

Yes, our D certainly played Philly tough in the last game. I was proud of them.

But, in general, for our D to improve enough to make a difference in 2014, we have to come up with a much better pass rush. The linebackers need to learn how to cover. The safeties need to plan for the ball eventually coming down. The B.W. Webb mystery needs to be solved.

 

[percyhoward]

2012 New Orleans TOP was 27th in the league (% of time with ball)
2013 New Orleans TOP was 3rd in the league

Keep the ball away from the other team and your defense is going to look better. (note: Dallas was 26th in 2013)

When you look at TOP for the whole game, it doesn't tell you whether the offense or defense is more responsible for the number. You have to look at TOP per drive to find that out. The Saints were 3rd in TOP per drive, so their defense did nothing to bring down that number for the whole game.

The Cowboys were 14th in TOP per drive, so the Dallas defense brought that number down to 26th for the whole game.

 

[jobberone]

I agree. Besides covering, rushing and tackling we're not really that bad on defense.

I didn't mean everyone! But nice one.

 

[jobberone]

This is from an 18-season sample (1995-2012) that compared these stats to wins.

Correlation Coefficient to Win %
Points Per Drive Diff .92
Pass Rating Diff .81
Yards Per Drive Diff. 69
3rd Down Conversions Diff .64
Turnover Differential Diff .64

These stats refer to the differentials -- the offense's number minus the defense's number. Take a team's offensive point total and divide that number by their total drives. Do the same thing with the defense's points allowed and drives faced. Subtract defense from offense and you get the differential. Do that with all the teams and rank them according to that differential. Teams with the best differential will be the teams with the most wins. These are the most accurate "team efficiency rankings" that you'll get.

Things like yards, 3rd down conversions, turnovers, and even (to a lesser degree) pass rating are secondary to the most important stat -- points.

Look at the Saints', Seahawks', and Cowboys' defenses. Seattle ranked 1st in points allowed per drive, New Orleans 8th, and Dallas 30th. (If you add those teams' offensive averages in points per drive to get differentials, the team rankings put the Seahawks at 2nd, Saints 3rd, and Cowboys 17th.)

Good stuff. If you think about it you get back to matchups although I admit its not completely that simple.

 

[Primetime42]

Not the Saints, but I think those of you who haven't should give this a read. New Orleans didn't get better just because Rob showed up, and Dallas isn't slacking because Monte Kiffin showed up.

http://grantland.com/features/whos-laughing-now/

Anyone remember one of the first things Monte told the defenders when he was hired?

It's personell. Dallas doesn't have it.

 

[NJ22]

That's right. Blame it all on the head coach. You might get a head pat from Jerry.

I'm sick of seeing all our talent wasted by incompetent coaches. When will it end?

Head pat from jerry? You can't be so dumb that you dont blame jerry for us being stuck with this coach! Can you?