Saints went from last to 4th in defense- So does that give us hope?

[NJ22]

Man Wade Phillips must have been the best coach in the history of the NFL to go 11-5 and win a playoff game with this awful collection of players!

 

[Screw The Hall]

The biggest problem that springs up from a catastrophic string of injuries, besides the predictably poor performance, is that you completely lose your ability to evaluate what you have with any degree of certainty. It's by far the most discouraging part of this whole scenario. In fact the only thing you can evaluate concretely is that some players seem to be getting injured more often than others.

But what do you do with that information when what you gleam from it is that it is in fact your very best players that are the one's that can't stay on the field or are getting more dinged up as they get older? In other words guys that you have already paid for future performance. This is a gigantic mess.

 

[joseephuss]

Man Wade Phillips must have been the best coach in the history of the NFL to go 11-5 and win a playoff game with this awful collection of players!

I know you are joking, but Wade didn't have this collection of players. That 2009 defense was not ravaged by injuries the way the defenses that last two seasons has been.

 

[links18]

Dallas played 11 games against teams ranked in the top half of the league in total yards. That included 8 of the top 10 teams in total yards. New Orleans played 10 games against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in total yards. That includes facing Tampa twice who finished as the worse team in the league for total yards.

Aikman efficiency rankings had the Saints defense at #15.

http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficie.../62/Aikman-Efficiency-Ratings-2013-Final.aspx

Anyway you slice the numbers, the Saints defense was better than ours this year.

 

[DeaconMoss]

Simple answer. NO.

Not unless we have about 7-8 new starters.

 

[khiladi]

NO shaved almost 135 yards per game off of their 2012 average.

While I'm not goofy enough to expect a top-10 defense next season, could this defense get up to say middling of the pack?

People, in their infatuation with trying to favor a unit like offense over defense and vice versa, simply don't want to accept how a unit plays is dictated by the other unit. A defense can be more aggressive knowing their offense can make up for a mistake.

 

[khiladi]

Dallas played 11 games against teams ranked in the top half of the league in total yards. That included 8 of the top 10 teams in total yards. New Orleans played 10 games against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in total yards. That includes facing Tampa twice who finished as the worse team in the league for total yards.

Aikman efficiency rankings had the Saints defense at #15.

http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficie.../62/Aikman-Efficiency-Ratings-2013-Final.aspx

That's cause they played us, meaning our giving them five hundred yards a game boosted their averages.

 

[Jerryrage]

If the Cowboys could find a way to hire their defensive coordinator, it would go a long way.

He managed to take the worst defense (by yardage) in the history of the NFL and bring them up to 4th in the NFL in a single year.

The guy is pretty much a miracle worker and is obviously talented and brilliant. A real up and comer.

Anybody know his name?

I'm sure Jerry Jones knows his name.

 

[joseephuss]

Anyway you slice the numbers, the Saints defense was better than ours this year.

I never said that Dallas had the better defense or even hinted that they were.

That's cause they played us, meaning our giving them five hundred yards a game boosted their averages.

I've already pointed out a couple of times in this thread that isn't the case. Those opposing offenses that Dallas faced this season did well against most of the teams they faced. Denver put up yards against everyone. Philly put up yards against everyone and actually did worse against Dallas. Dallas faced more potent offenses than the Saints did this season. That is just a fact. That doesn't mean the Dallas defense would have suddenly gotten better if they faced the Saints schedule, but who you play does matter.

 

[links18]

I never said that Dallas had the better defense or even hinted that they were.

I never said you said that.

 

[Frozen700]

NO shaved almost 135 yards per game off of their 2012 average.

While I'm not goofy enough to expect a top-10 defense next season, could this defense get up to say middling of the pack?

Is Ware still on this team, eating damn near half the cap space while playing like an Average Joe?

 

[Brooksey]

When you look at TOP for the whole game, it doesn't tell you whether the offense or defense is more responsible for the number. You have to look at TOP per drive to find that out. The Saints were 3rd in TOP per drive, so their defense did nothing to bring down that number for the whole game.

The Cowboys were 14th in TOP per drive, so the Dallas defense brought that number down to 26th for the whole game.

The Offense is still in control of their time of possession. They are still going to get their 10-12 drives per game regardless of what the defense does. If it was so bad that we were only seeing 7-8 drives per game because the defense was being dominated in 18 play 8:00 minute drive fashion...then that would be a problem. Teams are scoring on us in 2:41 on average, so although there is a statistical connection by breaking down the TOP per drive, there's no "Real Game Time" connection, that I see. Our low TOP on offense is not the result of our bad defenses high TOP on it's own, but the result of running the ball only 35% of the plays. When you pass, incompletions stop the clock. (Romo completes only 65% when he's on). If you are passing 65% and 35 % of those plays stop the clock, that's has to taken into account.

If we run only (10) drives in the game and average 4:00 minutes per drive then we have the ball for 40 minutes regardless of what the defense does.

 

[TwoDeep3]

I agree that is noteworthy that he hasn't had a lot of success in the past coaching top ranked defenses.

I am sure you will also agree that it noteworthy that he took the worst ranked defense in the history of the NFL and brought it all the way up to 4th in the NFL in a single season. That was his most recent performance.

Which means what exactly?

It's the players and not the coaching that matters most.

You can coach up good players. But if the player pool is sorry, then all the coaching in the world ends up with a stat like this and people blaming the coach.

 

[percyhoward]

If we run only (10) drives in the game and average 4:00 minutes per drive then we have the ball for 40 minutes regardless of what the defense does.

Not really. If we average 4:00 per drive, then that's half of what decides how many drives we'll have in the game. What the defense does (what the opponent averages per drive) is the other half, assuming no return TD. Our offense's average drive was the 14th-longest. The fact that our average TOP for the whole game did not rank as high as 14th means our defense didn't match that.

 

[Brooksey]

Not really. If we average 4:00 per drive, then that's half of what decides how many drives we'll have in the game. What the defense does (what the opponent averages per drive) is the other half, assuming no return TD. Our offense's average drive was the 14th-longest. The fact that our average TOP for the whole game did not rank as high as 14th means our defense didn't match that.

Blaming the defense for the offense's TOP issues is a reach.

I appreciate your statistical analogies but disagree.

 

[percyhoward]

Blaming the defense for the offense's TOP issues is a reach.

I appreciate your statistical analogies but disagree.

The per-drive ranking is offense only. The whole-game ranking is net (offense+ defense). It's just common sense that if the net ranking is significantly lower than the offense's ranking, that difference is attributable to the defense.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

Go down to the 2nd list, 3rd column "Net TOP per Drive." Three columns to the right of that is offense. Three more to the right is defense. Look at the Chiefs' net. They ranked 6th. Look at our net. We ranked 20th. That does not mean the Chiefs' offense was great at possessing the ball. They're a great running team, but their average possession was :01 longer than ours. Their net TOP ranked 6th and ours 20th because their defense was 4th and ours was 21st.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

NO shaved almost 135 yards per game off of their 2012 average.

While I'm not goofy enough to expect a top-10 defense next season, could this defense get up to say middling of the pack?

no.

 

[StarBoyz83]

No confidence in kiffin or in jerrys drafting. This will continue to be a bottom 5 d next year.

 

[john van brocklin]

If the Cowboys could find a way to hire their defensive coordinator, it would go a long way.

He managed to take the worst defense (by yardage) in the history of the NFL and bring them up to 4th in the NFL in a single year.

The guy is pretty much a miracle worker and is obviously talented and brilliant. A real up and comer.

Anybody know his name?

We sure could use him to revamp our defense!
Maybe Jerry could lure him away ????????????

 

[Brooksey]

Go down to the 2nd list, 3rd column "Net TOP per Drive." Three columns to the right of that is offense. Three more to the right is defense. Look at the Chiefs' net. They ranked 6th. Look at our net. We ranked 20th. That does not mean the Chiefs' offense was great at possessing the ball. They're a great running team, but their average possession was :01 longer than ours. Their net TOP ranked 6th and ours 20th because their defense was 4th and ours was 21st.

Seattle is #1 in OFF. TOP/Dr while their defense is 25th in TOP/Dr. The NET still makes them #2 overall.

So the Seattle Defense is handicapping the Seattle Offense?

Houston had one of the worst offenses in the league yet the defense TOP/Dr was #1. They got teams off the field faster than anyone...Didn't help the offense.

Once again although there is a statistical connection when you look at the net #'s, there's nothing here to support your claim that a defense is handicapping an offense when it comes to TOP. The net TOP/dr is kind of silly. It just tells you how long the opposing offense was on the field in comparison to yours. Time of possession is "controlled" by the offense, meaning the offense can dictate the tempo, play selection, the run the pass, the pace etc. The defense can only try to defend it. They are not in control of these things so "net" means very little.

There is plenty to suggest that Yards and 3rd down conversions contribute to the success of the drive and TOP, while the red zone scoring will determine if the points are 6 or 3.

Lets take the case of SD 2013:

Offense:
#5 in yards
#12 in points
#1 in TOP/Dr
#1 in 3rd down conv
OFF. DSR #2

Whisenhunt did a great job revitalizing SD's offense this year with balance and control.
If they converted more TD's in the red zone, they could have made a bigger run.







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