Saints went from last to 4th in defense- So does that give us hope?

[bark]

The saints made major investments to the defense last offseason in the draft and FA. Maybe we should do the same

 

[17yearsandcounting]

Did we rehire Rob Ryan?

 

[percyhoward]

Seattle is #1 in OFF. TOP/Dr while their defense is 25th in TOP/Dr. The NET still makes them #2 overall.

So the Seattle Defense is handicapping the Seattle Offense?.

Hold on. I said the difference between the net TOP and the offense's TOP is attributable to the defense. "Handicapping" implies that this hurts the offense -- that it has a negative effect on offensive efficiency. That would mean that more TOP = more wins. It doesn't, as I've told you before.

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/pass-offense-vs-pass-defense-2011-13.281173/page-2#post-5418302

Houston had one of the worst offenses in the league yet the defense TOP/Dr was #1. They got teams off the field faster than anyone...Didn't help the offense.

Of course it didn't help the offense. What was it supposed to help them do? It's a stat with only a moderate correlation to winning. The best offenses are the ones that score the most points, not the ones with the most TOP.

there's nothing here to support your claim that a defense is handicapping an offense when it comes to TOP.

You're misunderstanding. I'll use the Seattle example to explain. First, you read two of the three numbers wrong. Defense was 25th, as you said. Offense was 7th (not 1st). Net was 15th (not 7th). What I'm saying is that, if the net is 15th, and the offense is 7th, it follows that the difference in those two rankings is attributable to the defense. IOW, since we know Seattle only ranked 15th in TOP per drive (and 17th in TOP per game) AND we know the Seattle offense was 7th in TOP per drive, it follows that the Seattle defense must have ranked significantly lower -- it did -- and that this low ranking is what brought down the team ranking -- it was. Simply put, the defense's 25th lowered the offense's 7th to a net of 15th.

I'm not claiming that the Seattle defense handicapped their offense in any way. I"m just showing you how you can figure out which unit (offense or defense) was more responsible for the team's TOP ranking. The key here is to understand that being better at TOP (whether it's offenses staying on the field or defenses getting off the field) isn't the same as being more efficient offensively or defensively.

Rank in Scoring (Rank in TOP)
Offense
1 Denver (23)
2 San Diego (1)
3 New Orleans (3)
4 Dallas (15)
5 Chicago (4)
6 New England (22)

Defense
1 Seattle (25)
2 Carolina (16)
3 Cincinnatti (3)
4 San Francisco (11)
5 Kansas City (4)
6 Arizona (2)

 

[Brooksey]

Hold on. I said the difference between the net TOP and the offense's TOP is attributable to the defense. "Handicapping" implies that this hurts the offense -- that it has a negative effect on offensive efficiency. That would mean that more TOP = more wins. It doesn't, as I've told you before.

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/pass-offense-vs-pass-defense-2011-13.281173/page-2#post-5418302


Of course it didn't help the offense. What was it supposed to help them do? It's a stat with only a moderate correlation to winning. The best offenses are the ones that score the most points, not the ones with the most TOP.


You're misunderstanding. I'll use the Seattle example to explain. First, you read two of the three numbers wrong. Defense was 25th, as you said. Offense was 7th (not 1st). Net was 15th (not 7th). What I'm saying is that, if the net is 15th, and the offense is 7th, it follows that the difference in those two rankings is attributable to the defense. IOW, since we know Seattle only ranked 15th in TOP per drive (and 17th in TOP per game) AND we know the Seattle offense was 7th in TOP per drive, it follows that the Seattle defense must have ranked significantly lower -- it did -- and that this low ranking is what brought down the team ranking -- it was. Simply put, the defense's 25th lowered the offense's 7th to a net of 15th.

I'm not claiming that the Seattle defense handicapped their offense in any way. I"m just showing you how you can figure out which unit (offense or defense) was more responsible for the team's TOP ranking. The key here is to understand that being better at TOP (whether it's offenses staying on the field or defenses getting off the field) isn't the same as being more efficient offensively or defensively.

Rank in Scoring (Rank in TOP)
Offense
1 Denver (23)
2 San Diego (1)
3 New Orleans (3)
4 Dallas (15)
5 Chicago (4)
6 New England (22)

Defense
1 Seattle (25)
2 Carolina (16)
3 Cincinnatti (3)
4 San Francisco (11)
5 Kansas City (4)
6 Arizona (2)

Percy, I understand your theory 100%. I couldn't disagree more.

3 of the top 5 scoring offenses you just named are top 5 in TOP.
The other two run a lot of no huddle offense.
1 is off balance with a 65/35 pass run ratio

Here's some advice, stop hanging out on football outsiders they have corrupted your brain with nonsense.

 

[percyhoward]

Percy, I understand your theory 100%. I couldn't disagree more.

3 of the top 5 scoring offenses you just named are top 5 in TOP.
The other two run a lot of no huddle offense.
1 is off balance with a 65/35 pass run ratio

Here's some advice, stop hanging out on football outsiders they have corrupted your brain with nonsense.

What is my "theory?"

I'm saying two things:
1) Yes, there is a way to tell whether an offense or defense is more responsible for a team's TOP.
2) TOP doesn't correlate highly to winning.

 

[Brooksey]

What is my "theory?"

I'm saying two things:
1) Yes, there is a way to tell whether an offense or defense is more responsible for a team's TOP.
2) TOP doesn't correlate highly to winning.

You got it chief.

 

[percyhoward]

This is not even debatable.

Correlation Coefficient to Win %
Points Per Drive Diff .92
Pass Rating Diff .81
Yards Per Drive Diff .69
3rd Down Conversions Diff .64
Time of Possession Per Drive Diff .64
Turnover Differential Diff .64