Salary Cap fact versus fiction

[jterrell]

Here is a fact: There is no difference to signing your own star free agent vs a star free agent from another team. Suh paid off for the Rams. How many defensive tackles paid off for the Pats over the years. It's about signing the right guy for your team. Some teams do it better than others. There is no system.

As to your fact: It simply ISN'T one.

Your own stars you try to prevent from hitting free agency and when you do you have a lot more info than anyone else.
You also have a relationship with player and agent and the player likely lives in your town with kids in local schools.

But yes if they are determined to take the largest deal and free agency then it CAN be very like an outside free agency and sometimes you must simply walk away.
There are very much rules to free agency good teams follow.
And ones desperate teams follow. Those are the ones fans like the best during the off-season then cry about most in-season because fans are generally people operating off passion not logic.

 

[xwalker]

Over the cap is over the cap. Once that happens the team is severely limited in obtaining players.

Nope, it's not that simple.

I convinced the biggest critics of the concept here years ago.

I have a term I call burn-rate. If a team is operating at over 100% burn-rate the bill will come due; however, a team can be over the cap at the beginning of each year without getting to 100% burn-rate and can operate in that mode indefinitely as long as the NFL cap is static or increasing.

 

[jterrell]

Nope, it's not that simple.

I convinced the biggest critics of the concept here years ago.

I have a term I call burn-rate. If a team is operating at over 100% burn-rate the bill will come due; however, a team can be over the cap at the beginning of each year without getting to 100% burn-rate and can operate in that mode indefinitely as long as the NFL cap is static or increasing.

That is now and has always been flawed logic.
The guy who invented invented operating over the cap and scheduled restructures (Stephen Jones) has actually changed his tune and is now a cap purist.
Stephen and Jerry will telly ou they hosed Tony Romo by exercising poor cap mgmt.

The real issue with your burn rate theory is two-fold:
1. Unplanned occurrences with a player. See Pitt and Antonio Brown or DAL and Ratliff.
2. Future caps rise but so do future player costs. You need MORE money in future years because the SAME players get yearly raises by and large.

Pretending the cap is only rising and nothing else changes is flawed financial theory and would get anyone who has a budget in deep trouble quickly.

People make a lot more money now than they did in 1970, yet they actually have less... why? Cost of living has increased at a faster rate than salaries.

 

[Rockport]

Nope, it's not that simple.

I convinced the biggest critics of the concept here years ago.

I have a term I call burn-rate. If a team is operating at over 100% burn-rate the bill will come due; however, a team can be over the cap at the beginning of each year without getting to 100% burn-rate and can operate in that mode indefinitely as long as the NFL cap is static or increasing.

I don’t buy it. When you’re flirting with the cap at the high end, it limits what you can do with other players. I’m not saying you can’t sign a couple, but you’re not going to sign anyone with a big contract.

 

[xwalker]

That is now and has always been flawed logic.
The guy who invented invented operating over the cap and scheduled restructures (Stephen Jones) has actually changed his tune and is now a cap purist.
Stephen and Jerry will telly ou they hosed Tony Romo by exercising poor cap mgmt.

The real issue with your burn rate theory is two-fold:
1. Unplanned occurrences with a player. See Pitt and Antonio Brown or DAL and Ratliff.
2. Future caps rise but so do future player costs. You need MORE money in future years because the SAME players get yearly raises by and large.

Pretending the cap is only rising and nothing else changes is flawed financial theory and would get anyone who has a budget in deep trouble quickly.

People make a lot more money now than they did in 1970, yet they actually have less... why? Cost of living has increased at a faster rate than salaries.

It's not dependent on the cap increasing per se.

The concept is that a team can be over the cap at the beginning of each year or projected to be over the cap for the next season as of Nov/Dec without the bill coming due if they are below the 100% burn-rate.

I have not defined burn-rate here at CZ as of yet.

 

[xwalker]

I don’t buy it. When you’re flirting with the cap at the high end, it limits what you can do with other players. I’m not saying you can’t sign a couple, but you’re not going to sign anyone with a big contract.

That's not what I said.

I said a team can be over the cap at the beginning of each year or projected to be over the cap as of Nov/Dec without the bill ever coming due if they stay below 100% of the variable that I call burn-rate.

 

[Mr_Strol]

Like everything in life it is all about balance. Spend a little in FA and draft well. Both can be done.

 

[Rockport]

That's not what I said.

I said a team can be over the cap at the beginning of each year or projected to be over the cap as of Nov/Dec without the bill ever coming due if they stay below 100% of the variable that I call burn-rate.

And my point is it hamstrings the organization in player acquisitions. You said or implied that was not the case.

 

[eromeopolk]

You don't have to worry. Will McClay, Lionel Vital, Ciscowski, Judd Garrett, or Hall will find some cheap, previously injured, former top draft pick free agent that will fill in until they draft someone or replace someone they drafted who that they are not going to give a 3rd contract.

I do not see Jerry/Stephen giving Dak, Zeke, Cooper or Lawrence a extension until the 2019 season plays out and the Cowboys are playoff bound looking like a contender. Remember Troy and Emmitt 2nd deals did not happen until the tail end of the 1992 season (Troy) and the start of the 1993 seasons (Emmitt). Jerry tried to replace Emmitt Smith with Derrick Lassic to delay paying him.

The Deion Sanders (Jerry's deal) and dead money from the 90's contracts has Stephen Jones always frugal and under control.

Cowboys money is tighter than....well you know.

 

[xwalker]

And my point is it hamstrings the organization in player acquisitions. You said or implied that was not the case.

No, I didn't say how if affected the team. Just that it's possible.

There is a long list of limitations that come into play when a team is always tight against the cap.

A simple example is that using the Franchise Tag can become difficult or impossible.

 

[LittleD]

No one said to break the bank but you have to do something. Again if this team flops this year like they do every time they have any success then maybe its time to change the way your doing things.

Guy, they are doing something. Jerry is making millions and the value of the franchise is escalating each year...now over 4billion. The Jones family is running a business first and always. Winning a SB is nice but, it is not required to keep the business making millions. And, zoners keep coming to this venue to vent year after year which has no effect whatsoever on the Jones family top priority. Making Money!

 

[Nightman]

1. Unplanned occurrences with a player. See Pitt and Antonio Brown or DAL and Ratliff.

Again with the PITT fallacy

PITT rolled over 18m because they restructured ABrown in 2018
AND
they saved 1m on the cap with his trade this year and 10s of millions in the future

And that was worst cast scenario..... all of your doomsday scenarios are actually cap space windfalls

 

[jterrell]

Top FA signings per position of 2018:
QB: Cousins, 3 years 84m fully GTD. Team got worse. Dud.
WR: Allen Robinson 3 years 42m 25 GTD.. DUD. 55 catches 750 yards 4 TDs.
DL: Suh 1 yr 14m dudish. 4.5 sacks and was often missing in action in games.
OL: Andrew Norwell 5 years 66M 33M GTD. Played in only 11 games ended up on IR. DUD
Safety: Honey Badger 1 yr 7M. HIT. Played well and will bring them a comp pick. WIN x2.
CB: Malcolm Butler 5 years 61M, 30M GTD. Only started 11 games. Dud.
LB.. we all know Anthony Hitchens was a dud for KC right?

The high end FA market just generally sucks for the buyer.
Stephen Jones is simply right about this one and he is right because he has tried the other way for 20 years and had life experience to back up why it didn't work.
He was right enough, had data and convicted enough to convince 80 year old Jerry to be patient with the results and play the cap true.

 

[Creeper]

Good post. Capture almost all of my thoughts on free agency and roster building.

But let me state the obvious. The object of the game is to improve at every position possible all the time. Draft, trade, or free agency doesn't matter. If you can get a player who is better than the one you already have then do the financial analysis and if that works, make the deal. Of course for your worst players, the equation is easier to visualize. Its not as easy with your better guys. This is where the better GMs come in. They can see things like how a downgrade when they lose a Free Agent can be offset by an upgrade at another position. Jimmy Johnson was a master at this strategy. Jimmy was always trying to improve his roster. Of course it was different when there was no salary cap, but the cap shouldn't change the philosophy, only the variables.

Look at the Eagles over the past few years. They were not a very good football team just a few years ago. Then they made a bunch of deals to get players like Alshon Jefferey. In a very short time, using the draft, trades and free agency, they went from a poor team to a Super Bowl contender.

 

[jterrell]

Guy, they are doing something. Jerry is making millions and the value of the franchise is escalating each year...now over 4billion. The Jones family is running a business first and always. Winning a SB is nice but, it is not required to keep the business making millions. And, zoners keep coming to this venue to vent year after year which has no effect whatsoever on the Jones family top priority. Making Money!

This is nonsense.
Jerry makes FAR more money when they win than when they lose.
But he makes money either way.
Spending isn't an issue as you will see when they pay Dak.
They will also pay DLaw 40+M for 2 seasons of work.
They are simply exercising fiscal responsibility which leads to a business advantage over the long haul.

Any fan complaining about last year should be made to wear a dunce cap.
They made the right call on Anthony Hitchens, replaced him in the draft and upgraded to arguably a top 15 ILB.
They were the 2nd youngest team in the NFL yet won the division and a playoff game.

 

[LittleD]

This is nonsense.
Jerry makes FAR more money when they win than when they lose.
But he makes money either way.
Spending isn't an issue as you will see when they pay Dak.
They will also pay DLaw 40+M for 2 seasons of work.
They are simply exercising fiscal responsibility which leads to a business advantage over the long haul.

Any fan complaining about last year should be made to wear a dunce cap.
They made the right call on Anthony Hitchens, replaced him in the draft and upgraded to arguably a top 15 ILB.
They were the 2nd youngest team in the NFL yet won the division and a playoff game.

They keep running the team as a business focusing on the draft to keep salary costs under tight control and
managed to keep the organization buying land in Frisco. Jerry makes his money off corporate entities buying
expensive box seats which is about conducting business at games. The game and the outcome is secondary.
Don't be naïve.

 

[jterrell]

Good post. Capture almost all of my thoughts on free agency and roster building.

But let me state the obvious. The object of the game is to improve at every position possible all the time. Draft, trade, or free agency doesn't matter. If you can get a player who is better than the one you already have then do the financial analysis and if that works, make the deal. Of course for your worst players, the equation is easier to visualize. Its not as easy with your better guys. This is where the better GMs come in. They can see things like how a downgrade when they lose a Free Agent can be offset by an upgrade at another position. Jimmy Johnson was a master at this strategy. Jimmy was always trying to improve his roster. Of course it was different when there was no salary cap, but the cap shouldn't change the philosophy, only the variables.

Look at the Eagles over the past few years. They were not a very good football team just a few years ago. Then they made a bunch of deals to get players like Alshon Jefferey. In a very short time, using the draft, trades and free agency, they went from a poor team to a Super Bowl contender.

The Eagles short-circuited a very talented roster and have now lost about 35% of the starters off their SB team.
Jeffrey has given them 1600 yards in TWO seasons. That's a bad return on investment for what they are paying.
If they cut Jeffrey this year they eat 21M in cap space.
Yet they are scheduled for 15M, 16M and 16M in cap hits for a guy 4 or 5 years form his career best season.

Jimmy didn't have a cap at all and STILL built his team primarily through the draft.
The trades were merely to acquire draft picks 9 times out of 10.

 

[jterrell]

They keep running the team as a business focusing on the draft to keep salary costs under tight control and
managed to keep the organization buying land in Frisco. Jerry makes his money off corporate entities buying
expensive box seats which is about conduction business at games. The game and the outcome is secondary.
Don't be naïve.

You are naive.
Jerry makes more money when they win because the brand is worth more.

Jerry is going to make money either way.
He will until he dies.
He made a smart investment and built it up insanely well.

Jerry basically built Frisco.
He bought Starwood along what is now the North Dallas Tollway before it even ran there.

The new Star is only 2 streets away and was grass fields not long ago.
Frisco is adding a new HS a year and is one of the fastest growing cities in the entire country.

 

[Nightman]

This is nonsense.
Jerry makes FAR more money when they win than when they lose.
But he makes money either way.
Spending isn't an issue as you will see when they pay Dak.
They will also pay DLaw 40+M for 2 seasons of work.
They are simply exercising fiscal responsibility which leads to a business advantage over the long haul.

Any fan complaining about last year should be made to wear a dunce cap.
They made the right call on Anthony Hitchens, replaced him in the draft and upgraded to arguably a top 15 ILB.
They were the 2nd youngest team in the NFL yet won the division and a playoff game.

Yeah that was a great strategy getting rid of all of Dak's receivers and adding no one to the D

This place was a morgue on Nov 5th after losing to TENN to fall to 3-5

There was talk of tanking but we just wasted our 1st round pick on ACooper

It was a flippin miracle ACooper and Dak clicked and we went 7-1 to saved the season, not fiscal planning

 

[Rockport]

They keep running the team as a business focusing on the draft to keep salary costs under tight control and
managed to keep the organization buying land in Frisco. Jerry makes his money off corporate entities buying
expensive box seats which is about conducting business at games. The game and the outcome is secondary.
Don't be naïve.

Go check out the Tampa Bay Bucs and Steelers and then come back and admit who is naive. They don’t even have enough cap space to sign their draft class this year. Naive? No, stupid.