Nice writeup.
I also agree that running backs are not a dying breed. Unfortunately the statistical people have gotten into coaching staff's heads that you must throw the ball early and often and that running the ball only 'closes out games.'
Working as a statistician for a living and applying this statistical knowledge and research competency along with having read 'Moneyball' style analysis for over the past 25 years...the idea that you should run the ball only to help close out a game is missing a big part of the story. With statistics, you are not likely to get a perfect understanding of the game. But, you hope to get a more accurate understanding of the game. I think too many statisticians have uncovered that the passing game was much more important than traditional football wisdom suggests and thought they had the most accurate understanding of the game instead of delving much further into how running and passing the ball work towards success and offensive and defensive efficiency.
Anyway, during the draft I started to think What is the next big schematic and/or personnel change that will shape the NFL.
What we are seeing today is that most of the offenses are very shotgun and pass happy. Using very short pass patterns, particularly outside the hashmarks. There are some offenses still using a form of the read-option, although I think it's going to feature less and less QB running.
Defenses are starting to counter that by going to a 4-3 scheme and having plenty of speed on defense. Using FO.com's Defensive Rankings, 6 of the top 8 teams were 4-3 teams almost exclusively, with 1 of them not being the Cardinals, who use a mix of 3-4 and 4-3.
And with the Seahawks success and this being a copycat league, I think we'll see more of the same idea....Big DB's and a small, fast front 7. Your DB's may not be fast for DB's, but they are still fast as football players, being able to run 4.6 or better. And now with a small, but fast front 7, you have a lot of team speed.
I believe we'll continue to see most of the league using the shotgun, spread 'em out and throw-throw-throw style or the read-option scheme for years to come and teams will slowly integrate more of a Seahawks style of personnel and get out of the 3-4 scheme. Or if they stick with the 3-4...they'll make it very diminutive in nature.
And the next style of offense will counter that change to the defensive scheme. It leaves the running game, particularly if you have a fairly large and punishing tailback. I also believe that teams will go to larger WR's to help counter those bigger cornerbacks and help with blocking for the run. They'll probably try to get WR's with good speed and we'll eventually start to see less bubble screens from some coach looking to beat the changes we are seeing on defense. But again, I think it starts with the tailback first.
