Seattle called about pick 50

[Nightman]

the value of picks is fixed, but as much pressure as teams and FOs are under to produce short term results

That is why I said the difference in value was fake.....it isn't real

It is a construct of pressure

Groupthink says that if someone wanted #50 in 2018 then it would cost a 1st from 2019..... that is crazy ..... that pick could end being worth 3-7x as much next year

A mid 2nd this year should be worth a mid 2nd next year..... the trick is guessing were in the round the pick may fall...... pressure to win now causes teams to overpay

When we paid a 6th round pick in 2016 to draft Swaim in the 7th round in 2015 we still ended up with a 7th round player..... we paid 178 for 246....... getting the player a year earlier is negated by having the other player a year longer

 

[RJ_MacReady]

Haha it cracks me up every time I read someone way "30 year old safety".

Earl Thomas is 28 years old.

And he's very, very good at football and will be for the next 5 years.

You're totally correct that people who throw around "30 year old safety" (if they're talking about acquiring him for 2018 season) don't know what they're talking about and have parroted some exaggerated narrative, but in 5 calendar days you'll also be incorrect in stating he's "28 year old".

Either way, he's been in the league since 2010 so he's not that worn down but with the way he likes to lay the wood for a 205lb guy, I don't exactly see him having Ed Reed/Charles Woodson longevity. I think he could play a couple of more years (my best guess is 3), but 5? I just don't know about that..

 

[beware_d-ware]

That is why I said the difference in value was fake.....it isn't real

It's very real, otherwise teams wouldn't pay it.

And next year's first is the only acceptable future trade for this year's second. Delayed gratification only works if there's more value to be had by waiting - if someone offered you something now, or offered to give you the exact same thing later, why would you ever wait? A future first is a very steep price, but offering a future second gives a trading team absolutely no benefit over keeping their present second.

 

[Nightman]

It's very real, otherwise teams wouldn't pay it.

And next year's first is the only acceptable future trade for this year's second. Delayed gratification only works if there's more value to be had by waiting - if someone offered you something now, or offered to give you the exact same thing later, why would you ever wait? A future first is a very steep price, but offering a future second gives a trading team absolutely no benefit over keeping their present second.

If someone offered me 50 yd tickets to the Super Bowl last year with PHI or next year for Free I would take next year in a heartbeat

My fun would be delayed a year but I'm not paying for the tickets either way and there is no way I would want to see the Eagles win..... I would take my chances with next year and my experience would be better

Are you saying the experience this year would be 20% greater because I took it a year early even though I hated the choices

 

[beware_d-ware]

If someone offered me 50 yd tickets to the Super Bowl last year with PHI or next year for Free I would take next year in a heartbeat

My fun would be delayed a year but I'm not paying for the tickets either way and there is no way I would want to see the Eagles win..... I would take my chances with next year and my experience would be better

Are you saying the experience this year would be 20% greater because I took it a year early even though I hated the choices

So you're saying that trading a present known negative for a future unknown (that's very unlikely to be negative) is worth it. I guess you could say if the expected value of a future gain is greater than a current gain plus the time value lost, it's a smart deal to take.

So if the draft board was wiped out and there were only say 7th round talents available at #50, then yeah, a 2019 second would be worth more than a 2018 second. But in the context of the ET trade offer, that's not what happened. We definitely liked Connor Williams at 50, and God knows the OL starved Seahawks could have used him too. That 2nd was a valuable pick, and if we wanted to both keep it and get Thomas, a 2019 1st would be the only equal alternative. A 2019 second is very unlikely to be better than what was on the table in 2018, and certainly not better enough to make up for the lost time as well.

 

[Wood]

Well I'm absolutely thrilled to have Connor Williams.

But I really want Earl Thomas as well. Either way would've been a win, but I like the end result better for us.

That said, I'm in the minority who still absolutely wants to make a deal for Thomas. Maybe both teams kind of agreeing on the second rounder this year makes the possibility of trading him for next year's #2 possible. That's my hope.

Just curious. Why is not other NFL team offering 2nd round pick for Thomas.

 

[EMMITTnROY]

Just curious. Why is not other NFL team offering 2nd round pick for Thomas.

More than likely because Thomas has made it clear that he wants to be a Cowboy, so he's probably not gonna agree to any contract extension besides with Dallas or Seattle. For other teams, he is likely a one year rental.

Which is also why a lot of cowboys fans here don't wanna pony up a draft pick for him, cause we are supposedly assured to get him in a year in free agency. But that's risky to make that bet. A lot changes in one year. Does he sign an extension with Seattle? Does he get mad at Dallas for not trading for him? Does another team step in with a 3rd round pick offer and seattle does that deal to spite us?

To me if there's an impact elite player at a position of need who wants to play for you and you can get 5 years of elite play from him, it's worth next year's second rounder.

 

[stilltheguru88]

Just sign tre Boston and be done with it.

 

[dallasdave]

The way it always works is a pick next year is generally up a level from this year, although it isn't written down anywhere. So, we probably would have had to offer next year's one to get Seattle's attention during the 2nd Round for Thomas.

Good point !!!

 

[dallasdave]

The way it always works is a pick next year is generally up a level from this year, although it isn't written down anywhere. So, we probably would have had to offer next year's one to get Seattle's attention during the 2nd Round for Thomas.

Glad Dallas did not give up a top pick.

 

[Jake]

Haha it cracks me up every time I read someone way "30 year old safety".

Earl Thomas is 28 years old.

And he's very, very good at football and will be for the next 5 years.

He'll be 29 five days from now, and what he's been to this point of his career is irrelevant to his future value. The Cowboys aren't getting the benefit of his previous 8 seasons and only a fool would pay for them. Most players decline as they age. There's little reason to believe Earl Thomas will be exempt from that process other than wishful thinking.

I'm not opposed to Thomas being a Cowboy. I'm against giving in to Seattle's price for acquisition and ET's contract expectations. They're the team who should pay him, since they've benefitted from his play, and they're unwilling to do it. It makes no sense for the Cowboys to rescue both parties from their plight.

 

[cern]

It's always about the money.

 

[morasp]

"if any other player was on the board besides connor williams, they would've made the trade for earl thomas." - broaddus

interesting he noted that schneider called dallas first and offered earl thomas for pick 50.

That's too bad, I thought Bates might have been on their board. The veteran experience that Thomas is hard to overlook though.

 

[Fletch]

if that's the case, then why don't we just offer our 2nd next year and get it over with?

No thanks.

 

[JoeKing]

If they don't extend Earl before July (like he wants and most players expect a year before their contract expires) then resigning him in the 2019 offseason is not looking good at all. Sure, there's been talk about franchise tagging him for 2 years straight, but if you thought Earl was a little disgruntled now, wait until next year when they want to tag him. He'll probably talk about not signing the tag and holding out/retiring, etc. We've seen how their FO got strong-armed by Bennett and Chancellor when they weren't happy with their contracts. If they're truly trying to rebuild and install a new culture, it be in their best interest to part ways with such an impressionable person in your locker room and legacy player like Earl on amicable terms.

For the record, again, I'm not down with paying him the contract he wants, on top of any draft capitol we'd have to give. He looked great back there behind that uber talented Seattle secondary all those years but there's no guarantee that a 29 year old, final contract Earl Thomas will look the same behind ours. The way that little guy likes to leave his feet to hit guys all of these years has to take a toll. And remember, he spoke of retirement after breaking his leg in 2016. I've got a gut feeling that once he gets paid (guaranteed money), the next injury he incurs might be when he calls it quits, again, but this time means it. Once you start thinking about retiring, it starts you down a different mindset..

You've done a good job of explaining the NFL politics of this subject for those that don't understand it. That's not me. But thanks for taking the time to do that. I stand by my comments that you never contradicted because you can't. I was never a proponent of giving up the draft capital that Seattle was asking for to acquire ET's services. When they come to the realization it's best for them to cease making him a discruntal employ, they will allow him to go to another team. I'm still not convince that team will be the Cowboys because of the price tag of his new contract.

 

[Carter]

Its funny that almost no one can get ETs Age right.

Earl Thomas was Born May 7th 1989 so he will be 29 next week.