Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

[Setackin]

Just curious, seeing a lot of discussion about this. it’s difficult to see if this is a 50/50 type argument or if one side is just a vocal minority.

 

[TWOK11]

It shouldn’t be an argument at all, there’s a mathematical right and wrong answer. Those claiming it’s better to wait until the second TD to attempt the try are objectively incorrect.

Not everything is a matter of opinion.

 

[Setackin]

It shouldn’t be an argument at all, there’s a mathematical right and wrong answer. Those claiming it’s better to wait until the second TD to attempt the try are objectively incorrect.

Not everything is a matter of opinion.

So far looks like the majority agree with you.

 

[TheDank]

It shouldn’t be an argument at all, there’s a mathematical right and wrong answer. Those claiming it’s better to wait until the second TD to attempt the try are objectively incorrect.

Not everything is a matter of opinion.

Agreed and don’t understand why this is an “argument”. You always want as much information as possible in that situation. If you don’t go for it the first time you don’t know if you need to play for another score or if you’ll get the 2 point the next time. This shouldn’t be a debate.

Edit: To add on, this information is important because it dictates how you manage the clock/your drives over the final few minutes. Not making it we knew we had to save every second we could and would need an onside.

 

[Doomsday101]

I put unsure because ultimately I don't think it really matters if you go for it on the 1st or 2nd, in that situation you know you need the 2 point conversion at some point. Traditionally most will take the extra point and try the 2 point should they be able to get the TD on the next possession leaving it to a do or die attempt. I think the usual suspects that are constantly critical of anything this team does will say there is only 1 option

 

[Future]

It shouldn’t be an argument at all, there’s a mathematical right and wrong answer. Those claiming it’s better to wait until the second TD to attempt the try are objectively incorrect.

Not everything is a matter of opinion.

That math is based on thousands of data points. It's not 2+2=4

 

[blueblood70]

I was on the side of second score but after really understanding what the coaches are thinking i finally get it..

explanation they used and now i get is you go for it on the first TD so you then either have the successful conversion and now can win with a td and xpoint much easier , however if you dont have successful 2p conversion you now know you need two scoring drives

VS

waiting until the 2p conversion is needed for the win which is a longer shot then actually 2 scores given its the final play of the game and now you are desperate and they know its coming..

im being converted on the conversion analytic..

i was pissed they didnt go for the point to make it one score but i get it now

 

[endersdragon]

First, and this game is exactly why... If we had tried after the 2nd we wouldn't be in such a rush to score the 2nd (might event be milking clock to prevent a repeat of the end of the first half), and thus we don't leave ourselves enough time to kick the FG if we fail.

 

[Setackin]

I was on the side of second score but after really understanding what the coaches are thinking i finally get it..

explanation they used and now i get is you go for it on the first TD so you then either have the successful conversion and now can win with a td and xpoint much easier , however if you dont have successful 2p conversion you now know you need two scoring drives

VS

waiting until the 2p conversion is needed for the win which is a longer shot then actually 2 scores given its the final play of the game and now you are desperate and they know its coming..

im being converted on the conversion analytic..

i was pissed they didnt go for the point to make it one score but i get it now

Good job keeping an open mind. Some are very quick to stay hardheaded.

 

[TWOK11]

That math is based on thousands of data points. It's not 2+2=4

The real world data is, but the statistical theory is a standard undergrad STATS 101 problem. Removing as many unknown variables from the equation as early as possible increases your odds of overcoming the deficit simply as a matter of opportunity.

 

[OmerV]

It shouldn’t be an argument at all, there’s a mathematical right and wrong answer. Those claiming it’s better to wait until the second TD to attempt the try are objectively incorrect.

Not everything is a matter of opinion.

Going for it on the first one may have been the better choice (or not), but explain the mathematics you are talking about. Is there some mathematical explanation for why a 2 point conversion would have a greater chance of success the first time than the second?

 

[aikemirv]

I was on the side of second score but after really understanding what the coaches are thinking i finally get it..

explanation they used and now i get is you go for it on the first TD so you then either have the successful conversion and now can win with a td and xpoint much easier , however if you dont have successful 2p conversion you now know you need two scoring drives

VS

waiting until the 2p conversion is needed for the win which is a longer shot then actually 2 scores given its the final play of the game and now you are desperate and they know its coming..

im being converted on the conversion analytic..

i was pissed they didnt go for the point to make it one score but i get it now

I understand it - I would rather do it the other way. I think the play called was unimaginative and would have been better had they needed it to tie the score at the end. We are poor in short yardage plays.

I think I was more upset with the play call than the decision. I understand the decision.

For those thinking it was a great call.... with time running out and you need an onside kick and drive to score for the win or a 2 pt conversion to tie the game, which would you choose? - just flat out, what would your choice be?

I would play for the second scenario all of the time!

Once the try was missed I have read that we had a .1% chance to win. Once we got the first TD we had a 6% chance to recover the onside mulitplied by the percentage chance to drive to FG range multiplied by the percentage chance to make the FG

If the XP had been attempted and made, once we scored we had a 50% chance to tie.

That simple to me.

 

[pancakeman]

@JD_KaPow laid out the argument for the first option in a crystal clear way in the other thread. This poll should be 100 to 0.
But I know from the Coronavirus zone that logic doesn’t always rule the day around here, no matter how well it’s explained.

 

[TWOK11]

Going for it on the first one may have been the better choice (or not), but explain the mathematics you are talking about. Is there some mathematical explanation for why a 2 point conversion would have a greater chance of success the first time than the second?

The two point try timing has no effect on success rate, however going for it after the first TD removes a previously unknown variable earlier in the game.

Down 15, you know you need either two or three scores depending on whether the two point try you will attempt at some point is converted. Statistically, your odds of winning go up if resolve that variable earlier as a matter of opportunity. If you fail the two point try, you want to know that information as early as possible.

 

[aikemirv]

The real world data is, but the statistical theory is a standard undergrad STATS 101 problem. Removing as many unknown variables from the equation as early as possible increases your odds of overcoming the deficit simply as a matter of opportunity.

Disagree, any decision that you make that then makes it so you have to recover onside kick to win is a bad decision!

5 times out of 10 the team that kicks the xp in that situation and then scores later would tie the game.

1 time out of twenty at best, probably 1/30 or 40 statistically , the team that goes down by 9 wins the game.

 

[Doomsday101]

Question, should Alt have tried their 2 point conversion? in the end their failed 2 point try cost them the game since they lost by 1.

 

[Hennessy_King]

People that aren't brain dead know to go for 2 after the first td.

 

[Hennessy_King]

Question, should Alt have tried their 2 point conversion? in the end their failed 2 point try cost them the game since they lost by 1.

Analytically that call was correct to go up 21 rather than 20. They just didn't execute just like we didn't lol

 

[OmerV]

The two point try timing has no effect on success rate, however going for it after the first TD removes a previously unknown variable earlier in the game.

Down 15, you know you need either two or three scores depending on whether the two point try you will attempt at some point is converted. Statistically, your odds of winning go up if resolve that variable earlier as a matter of opportunity. If you fail the two point try, you want to know that information as early as possible.

There are other variables too though. For example, if you fail on 2 points after the first TD it may cause you to take risky chances on defense knowing you need to score twice, and also take risky chances on offense knowing you have to score quickly enough to get another possession. Fundamentals and smart decisions can be replaced by desperation.

 

[Doomsday101]

Analytically that call was correct to go up 21 rather than 20. They just didn't execute just like we didn't lol

True but then that is why I am not an analytical guy, in my view every point matters and odds are much higher of getting the extra point than the 2 point conversion. In the end that point was the difference in the game.