Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

JD_KaPow

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If we can’t agree 8 points is a potential 1 point possession then there’s no need to continue the argument. That’s the basis of my argument and the conventional wisdom.

I suppose you’ll argue 7 points isn’t a 1 possession game next since it’s not automatic either. Lol

This is really becoming ridiculous. You’re just arguing to argue now. I really don’t care if we can’t establish this basis.
An 8 point game is a potential one-possession game, yes. You've added the word "potential," which makes all the difference.

A 7-point game is also a potential one-possession game. It's just that the odds of the XP are so high that taking them into account would never change your strategy, so there's no need to when making plans. That is completely untrue in the 8-point case.

But none of this matters. The basis of your argument has nothing to do with it. You conceded the math long ago. Your argument is that "emotion" and "momentum" are incredibly powerful forces that destroy a team that tries the 2-pointer early and give superpowers to the team that defers the 2-point try. You've been very clear about that. (It's hard for me to square that with the fact that the success rate on 2-pointers gets lower the later you get into the game, but whatever.)

Your argument has nothing to do with the numbers, and yet you keep trying to come back and argue the semantics of "one-possession game" vs. "potential one-possession game" and pretend that the only possible outcome of the early 2-point try is failure. If your argument isn't about the numbers, just own it, dude.
 

Diehardblues

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An 8 point game is a potential one-possession game, yes. You've added the word "potential," which makes all the difference.

A 7-point game is also a potential one-possession game. It's just that the odds of the XP are so high that taking them into account would never change your strategy, so there's no need to when making plans. That is completely untrue in the 8-point case.

But none of this matters. The basis of your argument has nothing to do with it. You conceded the math long ago. Your argument is that "emotion" and "momentum" are incredibly powerful forces that destroy a team that tries the 2-pointer early and give superpowers to the team that defers the 2-point try. You've been very clear about that. (It's hard for me to square that with the fact that the success rate on 2-pointers gets lower the later you get into the game, but whatever.)

Your argument has nothing to do with the numbers, and yet you keep trying to come back and argue the semantics of "one-possession game" vs. "potential one-possession game" and pretend that the only possible outcome of the early 2-point try is failure. If your argument isn't about the numbers, just own it, dude.
You’re right. None of it matters because I’m convinced it’s better not risking a 9 point deficit over 8.

If there was more mathematical evidence the percentage was dramatically higher to risk a 9 point deficit I’d be interested. I can’t get past that detail.

I appreciate your respectful debate and cordial approach. Very refreshing. Good day!
 

CarolinaFathead

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You’re right. None of it matters because I’m convinced it’s better not risking a 9 point deficit over 8.

If there was more mathematical evidence the percentage was dramatically higher to risk a 9 point deficit I’d be interested. I can’t get past that detail.

I appreciate your respectful debate and cordial approach. Very refreshing. Good day!

But you’re convinced you’d rather risk a 2 point deficit with no chance to recover.

Because “feels”...

Brilliant...
 

Them

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...?...If they actually would have scored the first 2 point conversion...they would have been down by only one score...IMO they wouldn't have played as aggressively after that 2 pointer, and would have probably lost the game by just running out of time! ...Sometimes things just happen the right way despite your best efforts...or ...Sometimes it's just better to be lucky!...
:flagwave:
 

Buzzbait

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You know, after giving it some thought I decided not to pretend to know more about football than Mike McCarthy. The guy has a Super Bowl victory and 4 trips to the NFC Championship game.
Garrett played to not lose, McCarthy is playing to WIN! I'm siding with Mike McCarthy. If it takes a little time to happen, so be it.
 

LovinItAll

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not only was it the right call but others have convinced me that you should go for 2 even if you are down by 14.you go for 2 and you are down by 6 and all you need is a XP to win.The probability of you missing both 2 point conversions is low too.I wonder if MM will go the next step and do this

Teams convert 2 point attempts 60% of the time. If they missed the first attempt, they'd have a 60% chance the 2nd time as well.
 

DanA

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Is it right to discount the possibility of going for two twice?

Lets say we score to go down by 1 with seconds on the clock. Could the correct call be to go for 2 again and win it right there instead of going to overtime?
 

pansophy

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You’re right. None of it matters because I’m convinced it’s better not risking a 9 point deficit over 8.

If there was more mathematical evidence the percentage was dramatically higher to risk a 9 point deficit I’d be interested. I can’t get past that detail.

I appreciate your respectful debate and cordial approach. Very refreshing. Good day!
You still have to risk a 2 pt deficit on the next TD to get to zero. I don’t understand why finding that out later feels better to anyone.
 

Diehardblues

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You still have to risk a 2 pt deficit on the next TD to get to zero. I don’t understand why finding that out later feels better to anyone.
Because it leaves you with 1 possession down (8 points)instead of 2 possessions ( 9 points).

In the end if you miss the 2 point conversion it doesn’t change things but until the failed conversion it leaves the possibility open longer you could tie or extend the game with only 1 more possession.
 

Future

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No it isn't. It's based on game theory and access to information. Game theory isn't based on "data points" or data collection it is based on math and logic theory.
Information is just another word for data points....
 

CarolinaFathead

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Because it leaves you with 1 possession down (8 points)instead of 2 possessions ( 9 points).

In the end if you miss the 2 point conversion it doesn’t change things but until the failed conversion it leaves the possibility open longer you could tie or extend the game with only 1 more possession.

No lmao..

All you’re doing is leaving the game open for a longer period of time when you DON’T KNOW if it’s one or two possessions you need to win the game, you know, since 8 points is just as likely to be a two possession game as a one possession game.

Like literally...

An 8 point lead is ....

50% likely to be a two possession game.

50% likely to be a one possession game.

That’s equal.

That means it’s the same.

50% = 50%

Or do you disagree?

The ONLY thing you would do different then MM is waste a bunch of time to recover from a failure of the conversion because you chose to wait so damn long to find out if you needed one or two possessions to win. MM chose to find out if he needed one or two possession to win on the first touchdown so that he could plan accordingly with the most time possible, so that if he needed two possessions he’s maximizing the amount of time in the game to get them.

You, otoh, would choose to find out it was a one or two possession game with FAR LESS time on the clock and the LEAST amount of time possible in the game, which if you needed two possessions is absolutely kneecapping your chances at recovering from a conversion failure because you’ve given yourself far less time than MM did.

And you think not only that your decision is smarter, you ALSO think MM’s is actually dumb!

LMAO!!
 
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JD_KaPow

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Because it leaves you with 1 possession down (8 points)instead of 2 possessions ( 9 points).

In the end if you miss the 2 point conversion it doesn’t change things but until the failed conversion it leaves the possibility open longer you could tie or extend the game with only 1 more possession.
The goal is to win the game, not to maximize the chance of theoretically being within one possession as long as possible. If you miss the 2-point conversion you're down an extra score: it makes no difference to the universe whether you find yourself down that extra score sooner or later.

What exactly is your argument? Is it:
1. Going for two later is mathematically advantageous? Or
2. If the team waits to go for two, the team has a better chance of scoring the second TD, because of emotion and momentum and other stuff? Or
3. The chances of converting the two-pointer are greater later than earlier, because of emotion and momentum and other stuff? Or
4. A combination of 2 and 3: the team will play better in all respects if they wait to go for 2, because of emotion and momentum and other stuff?

If your argument is 2, 3 or 4 (which you used to claim it was), then this whole one-possession two-possession debate is irrelevant and I don't know why you're dwelling on it. There's no evidence to support your argument (and a fair amount of counter-evidence) but it's ultimately unprovable one way or the other.

If your argument is 1, well, it's just wrong.
 
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Diehardblues

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After the fact as I stated the math is the same if you miss the conversion but only being down 8 instead of 9 allows the opportunity to tie or extend the game with only 1 possession. Unless there’s a 9 point possession I’m not familiar with.
 

JD_KaPow

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After the fact as I stated the math is the same if you miss the conversion but only being down 8 instead of 9 allows the opportunity to tie or extend the game with only 1 possession. Unless there’s a 9 point possession I’m not familiar with.
The math is the same before or after the fact. But you still seem to be arguing the math, even though you previously said your argument was based on subjective factors.
 
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