CarolinaFathead
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An 8 point game is a potential one-possession game, yes. You've added the word "potential," which makes all the difference.If we can’t agree 8 points is a potential 1 point possession then there’s no need to continue the argument. That’s the basis of my argument and the conventional wisdom.
I suppose you’ll argue 7 points isn’t a 1 possession game next since it’s not automatic either. Lol
This is really becoming ridiculous. You’re just arguing to argue now. I really don’t care if we can’t establish this basis.
You’re right. None of it matters because I’m convinced it’s better not risking a 9 point deficit over 8.An 8 point game is a potential one-possession game, yes. You've added the word "potential," which makes all the difference.
A 7-point game is also a potential one-possession game. It's just that the odds of the XP are so high that taking them into account would never change your strategy, so there's no need to when making plans. That is completely untrue in the 8-point case.
But none of this matters. The basis of your argument has nothing to do with it. You conceded the math long ago. Your argument is that "emotion" and "momentum" are incredibly powerful forces that destroy a team that tries the 2-pointer early and give superpowers to the team that defers the 2-point try. You've been very clear about that. (It's hard for me to square that with the fact that the success rate on 2-pointers gets lower the later you get into the game, but whatever.)
Your argument has nothing to do with the numbers, and yet you keep trying to come back and argue the semantics of "one-possession game" vs. "potential one-possession game" and pretend that the only possible outcome of the early 2-point try is failure. If your argument isn't about the numbers, just own it, dude.
You’re right. None of it matters because I’m convinced it’s better not risking a 9 point deficit over 8.
If there was more mathematical evidence the percentage was dramatically higher to risk a 9 point deficit I’d be interested. I can’t get past that detail.
I appreciate your respectful debate and cordial approach. Very refreshing. Good day!
not only was it the right call but others have convinced me that you should go for 2 even if you are down by 14.you go for 2 and you are down by 6 and all you need is a XP to win.The probability of you missing both 2 point conversions is low too.I wonder if MM will go the next step and do this
Do you know why?Yes and they did. I was on it last night when it occurred.
Do you happen to remember what the % were looking like?Yes and they did. I was on it last night when it occurred.
Teams convert 2 point attempts 60% of the time. If they missed the first attempt, they'd have a 60% chance the 2nd time as well.
Do you happen to remember what the % were looking like?
You still have to risk a 2 pt deficit on the next TD to get to zero. I don’t understand why finding that out later feels better to anyone.You’re right. None of it matters because I’m convinced it’s better not risking a 9 point deficit over 8.
If there was more mathematical evidence the percentage was dramatically higher to risk a 9 point deficit I’d be interested. I can’t get past that detail.
I appreciate your respectful debate and cordial approach. Very refreshing. Good day!
Because it leaves you with 1 possession down (8 points)instead of 2 possessions ( 9 points).You still have to risk a 2 pt deficit on the next TD to get to zero. I don’t understand why finding that out later feels better to anyone.
Information is just another word for data points....No it isn't. It's based on game theory and access to information. Game theory isn't based on "data points" or data collection it is based on math and logic theory.
Because it leaves you with 1 possession down (8 points)instead of 2 possessions ( 9 points).
In the end if you miss the 2 point conversion it doesn’t change things but until the failed conversion it leaves the possibility open longer you could tie or extend the game with only 1 more possession.
The goal is to win the game, not to maximize the chance of theoretically being within one possession as long as possible. If you miss the 2-point conversion you're down an extra score: it makes no difference to the universe whether you find yourself down that extra score sooner or later.Because it leaves you with 1 possession down (8 points)instead of 2 possessions ( 9 points).
In the end if you miss the 2 point conversion it doesn’t change things but until the failed conversion it leaves the possibility open longer you could tie or extend the game with only 1 more possession.
The math is the same before or after the fact. But you still seem to be arguing the math, even though you previously said your argument was based on subjective factors.After the fact as I stated the math is the same if you miss the conversion but only being down 8 instead of 9 allows the opportunity to tie or extend the game with only 1 possession. Unless there’s a 9 point possession I’m not familiar with.