Significance of the running game in today's NFL

[Super_Kazuya]

Baltimore Dallas Denver all out rushed their opponents last weekend. They all lost. Baltimore had 140 rushing yards to 14 for New England. Didnt matter. Teams that average 2 more yards rushing per play than their opponent, win 53% of the time. Compared that to teams that average 2 more yards passing per play than their opponent , win 92% of the time.

To me this just shows why teams are moving away from RBs and on to WRs, TEs and QBs. The reason dallas went 13-5 is because tony romo played at an MVP level. If murray prices himself out of town, I think Jerry will let him go. It's just not a position to overpay for anymore.

For the Dallas Cowboys I think the running game is more important than most teams because they have to try to keep the defense off the field. But in that GB game, passing the ball is what put points on the board.

Generally, being able to pass and defend the pass is what wins. Don't get me wrong, a running game helps. But if dallas is going to win in the playoffs, they should emphasize defending the pass this offseason, even if demarco murray is a casualty of that.

Here is a website that really illustrates how much more important passing is in the NFL.

http://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

I agree with most of this. I actually think we run just a little too much. It's hard to argue with the results obviously, but I think we should pursue a split that has our leading rusher closer to about 1300-1400 yards. I thought there were some games earlier in the season we could have run away with if we hadn't stuck with "three yards and a cloud of dust". I don't want to go anywhere near our old run/pass splits obviously, I am talking about just a slight shift.

 

[Frozen700]

There is a significant amount of randomness to who actually scores TDs in a game.

 

[KalEl]

GB rushing attack was big for them and kept Dallas off balance, Lacy had over 100 yards and a TD. it is not a matter of who ran for more yards just as who threw for more yards does not determine the outcome of a game.

Not to mention Lacy broke some big gains on 3rd down that killed our defense

 

[Idgit]

Easier for some than others, not every team is playing the west coast offense or the pistol for some if their run game is not effective it will have a major impact on their ability to pass the ball. I'm a proponent of both run and pass because over the course of the season you will face defense who are very good vs the pass but not so much vs the run and vise versa and to be able to exploit the weakness of a team is what a top offense is able to do. I maintain the object is for an offense to move the ball down the field and put up points and a good way to do that is to keep a defense off balance.
If someone tells me the only thing that matter is how you pass the ball sorry I don't agree and have heard enough NFL HC talk of the importance of running and being able to stop the run, this does not mean I do not think the passing game is unimportant it is very important

It's never the case that passing the ball is the only thing that matters. You *always* have situations where the rushing game is critical. As you say, you can't survive against enough varieties of defenses if all you're doing is passing. The point, though, is that you can get into those down and distance situations if you display a willingness to run it--even if you're not all the effective at actually doing so. The same with getting teams into run-defensive formations. Teams react to your tendencies and not to your effectiveness. They're not going to not deploy a run defense in a rushing situation just because your RB is not very good. They're going to defend it, and then they're going to likely stop you. But if they do, and you can still convert from say, 3rd and 6 instead of from 3rd and 4, because you can pass effectively, it ends up not mattering that your running game is sub-optimal. You need to do it, you don't need to be good at it.

These debates always come down to people suggesting doing it is not all that important, but that's not the actual argument. I'm not sure why. There are tons of examples of things in our own lives and jobs that are really important to getting your work done, but that don't require a particular unique skill to do. Ie, doing it better than the other guys doesn't give a particular competitive advantage. And there are other essential skills that are absolutely essential in determining the success or failure of a project. It's no different in the NFL. Except, I think it's particularly emotionally rewarding to see players running the ball down the other team's throats. So, even if that doesn't necessarily correlate with winning all that closely, fans really like to see it. The same goes with time of possession, because they're not then worried as much of the game about the bad guys scoring. The reality is, though, as the Eagles like to show us, if you can score quickly, the points count just the same. It's only the emotional experience while watching the game that changes.

 

[Stryker44]

I agree, I guess where I come down on this is both passing and rushing is what makes an offense tick. There are ways to stop the run if you are willing to commit enough players to the line of scrimmage but in doing so you expose your team to the passing game. To me what made the 90's team as great as they were was the ability to run it or pass it and let the defense choose how they wanted to die that day. You bring the safeties up? fine we attack, you drop into nickel or dime packages we will attack you on the ground. I have seen drives were as you said it would be 10 straight handoffs but we would drive the field and put points on the board.

If you have the power run game going, and a great OL...you don't need to pass because you over power the other team enough to just get first downs on the ground at will.

 

[Doomsday101]

Not to mention Lacy broke some big gains on 3rd down that killed our defense

He kept us off balance and for GB it will be critical for them to use that run vs the Seahawks, if not then the results will end up as they have the last 2 times the Seahawks have played GB. If you do not run the ball effetely vs the Seahawks they will be all over your QB. When Dallas faced the Seahawks we ran and were physical and Seahawks had no sacks in that game

 

[Doomsday101]

It's never the case that passing the ball is the only thing that matters. You *always* have situations where the rushing game is critical. As you say, you can't survive against enough varieties of defenses if all you're doing is passing. The point, though, is that you can get into those down and distance situations if you display a willingness to run it--even if you're not all the effective at actually doing so. The same with getting teams into run-defensive formations. Teams react to your tendencies and not to your effectiveness. They're not going to not deploy a run defense in a rushing situation just because your RB is not very good. They're going to defend it, and then they're going to likely stop you. But if they do, and you can still convert from say, 3rd and 6 instead of from 3rd and 4, because you can pass effectively, it ends up not mattering that your running game is sub-optimal. You need to do it, you don't need to be good at it.

These debates always come down to people suggesting doing it is not all that important, but that's not the actual argument. I'm not sure why. There are tons of examples of things in our own lives and jobs that are really important to getting your work done, but that don't require a particular unique skill to do. Ie, doing it better than the other guys doesn't give a particular competitive advantage. And there are other essential skills that are absolutely essential in determining the success or failure of a project. It's no different in the NFL. Except, I think it's particularly emotionally rewarding to see players running the ball down the other team's throats. So, even if that doesn't necessarily correlate with winning all that closely, fans really like to see it. The same goes with time of possession, because they're not then worried as much of the game about the bad guys scoring. The reality is, though, as the Eagles like to show us, if you can score quickly, the points count just the same. It's only the emotional experience while watching the game that changes.

Thing is if you are a poor running team and unable to run effect you leave yourself in down and distance that become harder to overcome. When Washington beat us they did so by keeping McCoy in down and distance that did not put the offense on his arm. I think all teams are not built alike and there are teams Seahawks being one of them that it is through their run that sets up their pass, when you can stop the Seahawks from running their passing game is not that good. Dallas gave Wilson a lot of problem when they could not run the ball on us and as we all know Dallas pass defense is not the best in the league.

 

[Idgit]

Not to mention Lacy broke some big gains on 3rd down that killed our defense

And yet it was Cobb playing RB and Rodgers going 10/10 on his final passes that put that game away for GB. Because, you know, passing effectively wins ball games. Not being able to stop the pass loses them.

 

[Doomsday101]

If you have the power run game going, and a great OL...you don't need to pass because you over power the other team enough to just get first downs on the ground at will.

You guys are going make me defend both situations up aren't you? lol I think a power running game is very big weapon to have but again if Defense is willing to expose themselves vs the pass to stop the run they will do so and it is there that a quality offense will strike with the pass. Bring 8 and 9 into the box but man you leave the down the field open

 

[Idgit]

Thing is if you are a poor running team and unable to run effect you leave yourself in down and distance that become harder to overcome. When Washington beat us they did so by keeping McCoy in down and distance that did not put the offense on his arm. I think all teams are not built alike and there are teams Seahawks being one of them that it is through their run that sets up their pass, when you can stop the Seahawks from running their passing game is not that good. Dallas gave Wilson a lot of problem when they could not run the ball on us and as we all know Dallas pass defense is not the best in the league.

The Seahawks win because you can't pass against them. So it matters a lot less how your own passing game works. As long as you can stop from turning it over in the air, you're going to win that passing differential battle. And the easiest way to not turn the ball over in the air is to do what they're doing--including having that running game. But we were able to beat them at home because Tony was able to pass effectively against that defense and they ultimately couldn't match it.

The WAS game, they kept us from passing effectively because of the blitz. I don't remember exactly, but how was our rushing effectiveness that game? No matter what they did with McCoy that game, though, if Dez doesn't drop that TD, or if Williams catches that deep pass over the middle, or if Witten doesn't drop the overtime conversion, or if Murray doesn't blow that goal line blitz pickup, we pass more effectively than we did and we probably win that game. Without regard for what more we might have done running the ball that day.

 

[Doomsday101]

And yet it was Cobb playing RB and Rodgers going 10/10 on his final passes that put that game away for GB. Because, you know, passing effectively wins ball games. Not being able to stop the pass loses them.

how GB would get the 1st would not have mattered. Had the roles been reversed and Dallas ran the ball to close the game out would that have mattered what is more important run or pass?

 

[KalEl]

And yet it was Cobb playing RB and Rodgers going 10/10 on his final passes that put that game away for GB. Because, you know, passing effectively wins ball games. Not being able to stop the pass loses them.

Cobb's big play shouldn't have happened. His prior catch should have been overturned.

The WR that killed us was Adams

 

[Doomsday101]

The Seahawks win because you can't pass against them. So it matters a lot less how your own passing game works. As long as you can stop from turning it over in the air, you're going to win that passing differential battle. And the easiest way to not turn the ball over in the air is to do what they're doing--including having that running game. But we were able to beat them at home because Tony was able to pass effectively against that defense and they ultimately couldn't match it.

The WAS game, they kept us from passing effectively because of the blitz. I don't remember exactly, but how was our rushing effectiveness that game? No matter what they did with McCoy that game, though, if Dez doesn't drop that TD, or if Williams catches that deep pass over the middle, or if Witten doesn't drop the overtime conversion, or if Murray doesn't blow that goal line blitz pickup, we pass more effectively than we did and we probably win that game. Without regard for what more we might have done running the ball that day.

They win because they play overall good defense, to me that is a cop out to say well it is just their pass defense. They are a running team with a great defense a defense who was 3rd vs the run and 1st vs the pass but that tells me they are just a great defensive team. This does not change the fact that as a pure passing team the seahawks are not that good, when you can stop the run and force them into being a passing team they do not fair very well

 

[Dave_in-NC]

Emmitt used to take over games in the fourth. If we get a legit defense a Murray type running game will do that again.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I agree with most of this. I actually think we run just a little too much. It's hard to argue with the results obviously, but I think we should pursue a split that has our leading rusher closer to about 1300-1400 yards. I thought there were some games earlier in the season we could have run away with if we hadn't stuck with "three yards and a cloud of dust". I don't want to go anywhere near our old run/pass splits obviously, I am talking about just a slight shift.

I agree with that.

1st down became mind-numbing predictable over the course of the season.

 

[AdamJT13]

This does not change the fact that as a pure passing team the seahawks are not that good, when you can stop the run and force them into being a passing team they do not fair very well

For the season, the Seahawks were the sixth-most effective passing team, behind Green Bay, Pittsburgh, us, Denver and Indianapolis. That's plenty good enough, especially considering how good their pass defense is.

The Seahawks were held to less than 4.0 yards per carry three times this season. They won all three games. In three of their four losses, they rushed for 5.5 or better.

Even for the Seahawks, they almost always win when they pass better than their opponent, and they almost always lose when they don't. Whether they run better doesn't make much difference.

 

[Doomsday101]

For the season, the Seahawks were the sixth-most effective passing team, behind Green Bay, Pittsburgh, us, Denver and Indianapolis. That's plenty good enough, especially considering how good their pass defense is.

The Seahawks were held to less than 4.0 yards per carry three times this season. They won all three games. In three of their four losses, they rushed for 5.5 or better.

Even for the Seahawks, they almost always win when they pass better than their opponent, and they almost always lose when they don't. Whether they run better doesn't make much difference.

yeah seahawks do not rely on their run. lol ok

 

[AdamJT13]

yeah seahawks do not rely on their run. lol ok

They run a lot, but that does not mean that they win more when they run better, or vice versa. They almost always win when they pass better than their opponent, and they almost always lose when they don't.

In the NFL, no matter whether a team runs a lot or runs a little, whether they win or lose is almost always decided by how well they pass and stop the pass.

 

[Doomsday101]

They run a lot, but that does not mean that they win more when they run better, or vice versa. They almost always win when they pass better than their opponent, and they almost always lose when they don't.

In the NFL, no matter whether a team runs a lot or runs a little, whether they win or lose is almost always decided by how well they pass and stop the pass.

They run a lot because if they went to the pass as a primary weapon they would lose the game it is that run and the fear of that run that opens up things for them. Say what you will I watch and understand football very well. Seattle does not only run a lot 525 rushes they run much more than they pass the ball 454 attempts. Their defense is great but not only vs pass they are top 3 defense vs run.

 

[AdamJT13]

They run a lot because if they went to the pass as a primary weapon they would lose the game it is that run and the fear of that run that opens up things for them. Say what you will I watch and understand football very well. Seattle does not only run a lot 525 rushes they run much more than they pass the ball 454 attempts. Their defense is great but not only vs pass they are top 3 defense vs run.

Like I said, they almost always win when they pass the ball better than their opponent. And if they don't pass it better, they usually lose.