Galian Beast
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Here are some nice cherry picked numbers going into Sunday...
Romo vs Rodgers
Tony Romo's away QB Rating has been 121.8. While Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception at home this year, it's noteworthy that Romo has only thrown two interceptions on the road. Rodgers' home QB rating is an astonishing 133.2...
In wins Tony Romo's QB Rating has been 125.4 where as in losses it has been 69. I point that out because when Tony Romo plays well, this team succeeds. We saw it in the second half of the Lions game. If we can do a better job on offense against the Packers, pick up the blitz, and be more consistent, I don't see any reason why we can't score 30+ points on them.
Not really numbers, but the idea that Rodgers isn't going to practice until late in the week, I expect an opportunity for rust.
In November Rodgers' QB Rating was 128.1 in December it was 94.8. Not pedestrian, but certainly not 2014 elite. The idea that he could have rust or be hampered in anyway is not good for the Packers as I see the team who starts the strongest in this game is likely going to win.
Lambeau and McCarthy
With that being said it was going to be an uphill battle. The Packers and Rodgers are really good in Lambeau, and they've had a week extra to prepare for us. Certainly don't think they were preparing for Detroit who they had just played a week earlier...
Mike McCarthy is 9-0 coming off a bye week (not including the playoffs). While that number is obviously inflated by random opponents compared to teams with winning seasons/playoff teams, it shouldn't be ignored given that it is completely unscathed.
I really think that the key to overcoming this difficult team, is to take it to them in a way they aren't generally accustomed at home.
Keys to Winning
Rodgers has an 88.6 quarterback rating when trailing, and that isn't a small sample size. He has thrown no picks this year when winning and only one when he is tied.
We need to go into Green Bay, take the crowd out of the game, take Eddie Lacy out of the game, and put the entire game on Aaron Rodgers as crazy as that might sound. The defense needs to play stout early and the offense needs to get going early. We then need to win the time of possession battle by running the ball and moving the chains. Packers opponents for the year had an average 3rd down conversion rate of 40.3 percent, leading them to have a healthy average TOP of 30:32. We are 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage with 46.98 percent, well above Green Bay's average.
The reality is that we do have the means to beat this team. We've gotten sloppy in the last few games, despite a really strong December finish, we were still a sloppy team. We can't afford that on Sunday.
2nd best in the NFL in TOP. We need to control the clock on Sunday. We need to limit 3rd downs, and convert when we're in them and more importantly we need to score in the red zone, preferably touchdowns not field goals, but we certainly can't miss from 40.
Recognizing Green Bay
In looking at games that Green Bay won you see a lot of common factors. They usually score first...often and early, and they lay on teams who now can't pin back on Rodgers and as a result he has a field day. When teams do score on Green Bay, generally they've let Green Bay back into the game with turnovers by poor quality QBs.
I'm certainly not downplaying how dangerous of a team they are, but when they've played QBs who are of a certain quality... They've lost nearly every time.
QBs they lost to
Russell Wilson
Matt Stafford
Drew Brees
Kyle Orton
QBs they beat
Geno Smith
Matt Stafford
Jay Cutler x2
Teddy Bridgewater
Christian Ponder
Ryan Tannaheil
Cam Newton
Mark Sanchez
(Tom Brady)
Matt Ryan
Josh McKown
They did beat Tom Brady though. Matt Ryan is also quality, but not so much this year. It should be noted that both the Falcons game and Patriots game were close by the end.
There really isn't a pattern to beating Tony Romo though. You need to get pressure on him, but you also have to shut down the run. I don't think Green Bay is built to accomplish BOTH of those tasks at the same time like Detroit was.
Our Defense
I actually think our defense has fared much better against elite quarterbacks. The biggest problem though has been speed. It'll be up to this defense to match up against the speed of their wide receivers and running backs, but I might go as far as to say that Philly was a tougher match up for us, and we crushed them in the 2nd outing.
We scored early, and we made them have to make plays to beat us. Sanchez is no Rodgers, but Rodgers isn't Rodgers when coming from a deficit.
Romo vs Rodgers
Tony Romo's away QB Rating has been 121.8. While Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception at home this year, it's noteworthy that Romo has only thrown two interceptions on the road. Rodgers' home QB rating is an astonishing 133.2...
In wins Tony Romo's QB Rating has been 125.4 where as in losses it has been 69. I point that out because when Tony Romo plays well, this team succeeds. We saw it in the second half of the Lions game. If we can do a better job on offense against the Packers, pick up the blitz, and be more consistent, I don't see any reason why we can't score 30+ points on them.
Not really numbers, but the idea that Rodgers isn't going to practice until late in the week, I expect an opportunity for rust.
In November Rodgers' QB Rating was 128.1 in December it was 94.8. Not pedestrian, but certainly not 2014 elite. The idea that he could have rust or be hampered in anyway is not good for the Packers as I see the team who starts the strongest in this game is likely going to win.
Lambeau and McCarthy
With that being said it was going to be an uphill battle. The Packers and Rodgers are really good in Lambeau, and they've had a week extra to prepare for us. Certainly don't think they were preparing for Detroit who they had just played a week earlier...
Mike McCarthy is 9-0 coming off a bye week (not including the playoffs). While that number is obviously inflated by random opponents compared to teams with winning seasons/playoff teams, it shouldn't be ignored given that it is completely unscathed.
I really think that the key to overcoming this difficult team, is to take it to them in a way they aren't generally accustomed at home.
Keys to Winning
Rodgers has an 88.6 quarterback rating when trailing, and that isn't a small sample size. He has thrown no picks this year when winning and only one when he is tied.
We need to go into Green Bay, take the crowd out of the game, take Eddie Lacy out of the game, and put the entire game on Aaron Rodgers as crazy as that might sound. The defense needs to play stout early and the offense needs to get going early. We then need to win the time of possession battle by running the ball and moving the chains. Packers opponents for the year had an average 3rd down conversion rate of 40.3 percent, leading them to have a healthy average TOP of 30:32. We are 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage with 46.98 percent, well above Green Bay's average.
The reality is that we do have the means to beat this team. We've gotten sloppy in the last few games, despite a really strong December finish, we were still a sloppy team. We can't afford that on Sunday.
2nd best in the NFL in TOP. We need to control the clock on Sunday. We need to limit 3rd downs, and convert when we're in them and more importantly we need to score in the red zone, preferably touchdowns not field goals, but we certainly can't miss from 40.
Recognizing Green Bay
In looking at games that Green Bay won you see a lot of common factors. They usually score first...often and early, and they lay on teams who now can't pin back on Rodgers and as a result he has a field day. When teams do score on Green Bay, generally they've let Green Bay back into the game with turnovers by poor quality QBs.
I'm certainly not downplaying how dangerous of a team they are, but when they've played QBs who are of a certain quality... They've lost nearly every time.
QBs they lost to
Russell Wilson
Matt Stafford
Drew Brees
Kyle Orton
QBs they beat
Geno Smith
Matt Stafford
Jay Cutler x2
Teddy Bridgewater
Christian Ponder
Ryan Tannaheil
Cam Newton
Mark Sanchez
(Tom Brady)
Matt Ryan
Josh McKown
They did beat Tom Brady though. Matt Ryan is also quality, but not so much this year. It should be noted that both the Falcons game and Patriots game were close by the end.
There really isn't a pattern to beating Tony Romo though. You need to get pressure on him, but you also have to shut down the run. I don't think Green Bay is built to accomplish BOTH of those tasks at the same time like Detroit was.
Our Defense
I actually think our defense has fared much better against elite quarterbacks. The biggest problem though has been speed. It'll be up to this defense to match up against the speed of their wide receivers and running backs, but I might go as far as to say that Philly was a tougher match up for us, and we crushed them in the 2nd outing.
We scored early, and we made them have to make plays to beat us. Sanchez is no Rodgers, but Rodgers isn't Rodgers when coming from a deficit.
