Strength of Schedule Fallacy

[TheHerd]

Of the teams we beat are any considered having better than just a punchers chance at making noise in the playoffs?

Except of course for the Giants who beat us?

Just out of curiosity, which teams would you put on the list of having better than a punchers chance?

 

[Q_the_man]

I have this argument in college sports all the time. Especially football. Where 11-1 or 10-2 big5 teams often have a worse sos than the other teams in those conferences. Well of course they do, their sos get penalized for spanking you while yours goes up.

Exactly, what is Alabama's SOS looking like right now. The SEC has Alabama, then Florida with 3 L's and every other team has 4 L's or more. Big 10 has a 11-1 team, three 10-2 teams and a 9-3 team. SEC teams are always overrated, they beat up on themselves and it's considered tough but the Pac 12 beats up on each other and their soft, lol.

I would take the top 5 teams in the Pac 12, Big 10 and ACC over SEC all day...

SEC top teams..............Pac 12......................Big 10.................ACC...................Big 12
Alabama ........................USC.........................Ohio St ................Miami................Oklahoma
LSU................................Stanford...................Michigan...............Florida St............Texas
Florida............................Washington..............Penn St................VT.......................Not too many good Big 12 teams in their history, they should add Notre Dame and Maybe SMU or Houston
Georgia...........................UCLA.....................Wisconsin.............Clemson..............Baylor
Auburn............................Oregon..................Nebraska..............Louisville..............TCU

 

[Q_the_man]

Top 5 teams of each conference combined records
W-L
SEC 42-15
ACC 47-14
BIG 10 50-10
BIG 12 40-15
PAC 12 47-13

 

[mattjames2010]

The NFC East has had a cupcake schedule. It's okay to say that, doesn't completely diminish what we've done. But it's been an easy road outside a game or two.

 

[mattjames2010]

Everybody sucks. I watch all the games. The CBA has destroyed this league. Nobody practices hardly at all. Tackling it terrible. Quarterbacking is embarrassing overall.

New England, Dallas, Oakland, maybe Atlanta........and who?

The league is full of some of the most athletic and physical freaks we have ever seen. As for the quarterbacking, are you kidding? This is the one area of the NFL that has significantly improved. Despite what people think, QBs are coming out of the draft more ready than ever before and reaching ceilings even great QBs in the past never reached at their peak.

The great thing about the NFL is that you don't have to make those crazy highlight hard tackles. The game is more of a chess match now, scheme over scheme. For me, this is a better watch than something closer to backyard football. Want that? You should have called your family out to the back yard during Thanksgiving to toss around the ol' pigskin.

 

[mattjames2010]

Do I think beating GB in GB was a good win? Absolutely. How did the Giants do there? They got rolled. Cincinnati has yet to get a pounding like we gave them. The Giants beat them by a point. So yeah, I think out +103 point differential says a lot. And again, based on WHO WE HAVE PLAYED, take away Cleveland and San Francisco and our Wins and Losses and the record TODAY of these teams against the rest of the league is 42-32-2. So 8-1 against 42-32-2 I think is pretty darn GOOD.

Giants lost by 8 points, they didn't get "rolled". GB put up 23 points, not exactly a domination.

You have got to be the biggest homer I've ever seen.

 

[Q_the_man]

The NFC East has had a cupcake schedule. It's okay to say that, doesn't completely diminish what we've done. But it's been an easy road outside a game or two.

I guess. Who thought the AFC North would be so terrible. If Baltimore and Pittsburgh beats our division they are 9-2 but our division beat them....

 

[willia451]

SOS is really a non-issue in the salary cap and free agency era. Jerry Jones, in one of his more lucid moments, was absolutely correct. The NFL wants every and any team to have a chance to make some noise year over year. To be able to go from worst to first. If everyone was 8-8, that would be great. Its good for business.

Unless you are the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone brings their "A" game when they play the Cowboys. Because believe it or not, it still means something to everyone to beat the storied Dallas Cowboys. Even though we have not won a SB in 20 years. LOL!!! Just proves how stupid and narcissistic the average person is.

So every week is a SOS issue. If you play for the Cowboys. But for everyone else? Not so much.

Just the way it is.

 

[erod]

The league is full of some of the most athletic and physical freaks we have ever seen. As for the quarterbacking, are you kidding? This is the one area of the NFL that has significantly improved. Despite what people think, QBs are coming out of the draft more ready than ever before and reaching ceilings even great QBs in the past never reached at their peak.

The great thing about the NFL is that you don't have to make those crazy highlight hard tackles. The game is more of a chess match now, scheme over scheme. For me, this is a better watch than something closer to backyard football. Want that? You should have called your family out to the back yard during Thanksgiving to toss around the ol' pigskin.

The top five teams from 10 years ago would roll through this league in their sleep.

 

[windjc]

The top five teams from 10 years ago would roll through this league in their sleep.

So what?

 

[bayeslife]

Of the teams we beat are any considered having better than just a punchers chance at making noise in the playoffs?

Except of course for the Giants who beat us?

I mean you can ignore Washington if you want.

 

[windjc]

I mean you can ignore Washington if you want.

He's ignoring the Steelers too, who very well could be top 3 in talent in AFC.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

In a 6 team playoff per conference.... You're putting Pittsburgh or Washington in your top 3 teams?

Pittsburgh if you squint you might say they are better than Kansas City and clearly behind Oakland and New England.

In the NFC Washington is clearly behind us, the Seahawks and the Falcons.

I remember when people were bragging about beating Green Bay and the Bengals. And anyone who questioned whether those teams were as good this year as we thought coming in were labeled haters.

Who were we to believe.. Media expectations entering the year or our own lying eyes they said!

 

[windjc]

In a 6 team playoff per conference.... You're putting Pittsburgh or Washington in your top 3 teams?

Pittsburgh if you squint you might say they are better than Kansas City and clearly behind Oakland and New England.

In the NFC Washington is clearly behind us, the Seahawks and the Falcons.

I remember when people were bragging about beating Green Bay and the Bengals. And anyone who questioned whether those teams were as good this year as we thought coming in were labeled haters.

Who were we to believe.. Media expectations entering the year or our own lying eyes they said!

My eyes say we are 10-1 and best team in the league. You can continue to look for ways to discredit that, if you want to spend your time that way.

 

[Kevinicus]

Do I think beating GB in GB was a good win? Absolutely. How did the Giants do there? They got rolled. Cincinnati has yet to get a pounding like we gave them. The Giants beat them by a point. So yeah, I think out +103 point differential says a lot. And again, based on WHO WE HAVE PLAYED, take away Cleveland and San Francisco and our Wins and Losses and the record TODAY of these teams against the rest of the league is 42-32-2. So 8-1 against 42-32-2 I think is pretty darn GOOD.

I think your math is wrong unless you are leaving out another team. I get 45-39-2.

Pointing out a Giants loss doesn't make something a good win. GB has shown to be a below average team. And Cincy has 8 losses. It's good we blew them out, but beating them is not a significant feat.

Regardless of all of that, my point still stands. You criticized someone for eliminating the records of those we have yet to play, even though he argument you are attacking in this thread is not based on those games.

 

[jrumann59]

who would have thought that the NFCS, NFCN, and NFCW along with AFCN would be "weak" this year, at the beginning of the season most thought the NFCW would be dog fight with Seattle and Arizona with the Rams making a little noise, NFCN everyone thought GB was the cream of the crop their with Minny making noise and Det being a wild card because they just lost Megatron and no one knew what would happen. In the NFCS, everyone figured Carolina would take a step back but not that drastic, Atlanta would be good and in contention, and NO would go as far as their defense would take them. AFCN many thought they would have at least 2 playoff teams some even thought 3

 

[windjc]

I think your math is wrong unless you are leaving out another team. I get 45-39-2.

Pointing out a Giants loss doesn't make something a good win. GB has shown to be a below average team. And Cincy has 8 losses. It's good we blew them out, but beating them is not a significant feat.

Regardless of all of that, my point still stands. You criticized someone for eliminating the records of those we have yet to play, even though he argument you are attacking in this thread is not based on those games.

You are going to great lengths to discredit Dallas. Join the club.

And more to your point, I don't see us losing to inferior teams. The Vikings, Giants, Lions, Bucs and Eagles we will be favored to win against. Maybe we lose 1 or 2.

But are you REALLY going to argue that we aren't a Superbowl contender, maybe even the favorite if we finish 14-2 or 13-3? I am not sure what point you are arguing towards. Is it that you feel the need to suggest that Dallas has not proven itself in its first 11 games?

I expect us to finish 15-1, 14-2 or 13-3 and I was extrapolating out the entire season. Sorry if Dallas hasn't done enough for you to believe they will finish between 3-2 and 5-0.

I started this thread because people on this forum that call themselves fans are going to great lengths to discredit the team they say is their favorite team. Hell, we have people on this thread saying that the entire league sucks and so we suck historically. LOL. Nothing makes these people and perhaps people like you happy apparently.

Dallas is freaking 10-1. There is no reasonable purpose in discrediting them for it.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

My eyes say we are 10-1 and best team in the league. You can continue to look for ways to discredit that, if you want to spend your time that way.

I've never looked a gift horse in the mouth.

You can be happy your team is 10-1 and acknowledge they've had a fortunate schedule.

I'm not so self conscious that those need to be mutually exclusive thoughts.

 

[windjc]

I've never looked a gift horse in the mouth.

You can be happy your team is 10-1 and acknowledge they've had a fortunate schedule.

I'm not so self conscious that those need to be mutually exclusive thoughts.

Ok, since you are so unbiased, show me where you also pointed out that the Giants, who have won 6 straight have done so playing exactly 1 real road game in those 6, that being against Cleveland.

Also please explain our "fortune." Is our fortune that we havent played the Vikings or the Lions and instead played the Steelers and the Ravens? Is it that we haven't played Seattle? Or NE - although then we would play the Bills and the Jets. Is it that we haven't played Atlanta, along with all the mediocre teams in their division? Is it that the NFC East is weak, because its not really weak. I am not sure where our fortune is exactly?

 

[Kevinicus]

You are going to great lengths to discredit Dallas. Join the club.

And more to your point, I don't see us losing to inferior teams. The Vikings, Giants, Lions, Bucs and Eagles we will be favored to win against. Maybe we lose 1 or 2.

But are you REALLY going to argue that we aren't a Superbowl contender, maybe even the favorite if we finish 14-2 or 13-3? I am not sure what point you are arguing towards. Is it that you feel the need to suggest that Dallas has not proven itself in its first 11 games?

I expect us to finish 15-1, 14-2 or 13-3 and I was extrapolating out the entire season. Sorry if Dallas hasn't done enough for you to believe they will finish between 3-2 and 5-0.

I started this thread because people on this forum that call themselves fans are going to great lengths to discredit the team they say is their favorite team. Hell, we have people on this thread saying that the entire league sucks and so we suck historically. LOL. Nothing makes these people and perhaps people like you happy apparently.

Dallas is freaking 10-1. There is no reasonable purpose in discrediting them for it.

I didn't read your whole post because it was just a bunch of nonsense.

I would suggest you focus on the things I actually said and not the things you made up in your head and attributed to me. You're too eager to argue you have just gone to strawman city.