Strength of Schedule Fallacy

[windjc]

I didn't read your whole post because it was just a bunch of nonsense.

I would suggest you focus on the things I actually said and not the things you made up in your head and attributed to me. You're too eager to argue you have just gone to strawman city.

I defended my OP. And I even argued the strawman that you made up saying I should have left out games unplayed. But glad to know you can discredit a post you didnt read just because it destroyed everything you argued against.

 

[windjc]

But isn't the SOS argument that you are calling a fallacy based on who Dallas has played, not who they will play?

Did I say that? No. I said I created this thread to put our SOS in context. For all we know, the Vikings and Lions and Eagles and Giants will have horrible finishes and teams like the Bengals, Steelers, Ravens and Skins will have great finishes. The bottom line is most likely when it is all said and done, our SOS minus our wins and losses will be around .500 just like most everyone else.

So its OUR RECORD THAT MATTERS. That was the point. SOS is a fallacy. It doesn't exist. You are what your record says you are. And these attempts to discredit Dallas because of SOS are ridiculous.

 

[Galian Beast]

We've beaten two teams that are either in first or second in their division... and for the record, those teams are in the AFC North, one of the worst divisions in football, where both division leaders are barely over .500.

Only 3 teams we've beaten in 11 weeks have winning records... Note that there are 16 teams in the league with winning records, not including us. Out of those 16 teams, we've beaten three of the worst teams...

Please keep convincing yourself that somehow this wasn't an easy schedule so far...

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Ok, since you are so unbiased, show me where you also pointed out that the Giants, who have won 6 straight have done so playing exactly 1 real road game in those 6, that being against Cleveland.

Also please explain our "fortune." Is our fortune that we havent played the Vikings or the Lions and instead played the Steelers and the Ravens? Is it that we haven't played Seattle? Or NE - although then we would play the Bills and the Jets. Is it that we haven't played Atlanta, along with all the mediocre teams in their division? Is it that the NFC East is weak, because its not really weak. I am not sure where our fortune is exactly?

What exactly are you asking me to prove? We haven't played many (any?) team outside of the Giants who you expect could/should win more than a playoff game if that.

This year there are not a lot of great teams and we've avoided most (all?) of the even just pretty good teams.

That is my opinion. And I'm thankful. If because of your schedule you get HFA and the bye helps you win it all there are no asterisks on the Lombardi.

Settle down.

 

[jrumann59]

We've beaten two teams that are either in first or second in their division... and for the record, those teams are in the AFC North, one of the worst divisions in football, where both division leaders are barely over .500.

Only 3 teams we've beaten in 11 weeks have winning records... Note that there are 16 teams in the league with winning records, not including us. Out of those 16 teams, we've beaten three of the worst teams...

Please keep convincing yourself that somehow this wasn't an easy schedule so far...

The schedule has been easier than expected but how is that any teams fault. This is not NCAA where you can line up your non conference opponents. Beyond two games on the schedule everyone in the division plays the same schedule. If the Commanders win out their schedule while perceived to be more difficult when the schedule was released get to play the hapless panthers and cards

 

[windjc]

What exactly are you asking me to prove? We haven't played many (any?) team outside of the Giants who you expect could/should win more than a playoff game if that.

This year there are not a lot of great teams and we've avoided most (all?) of the even just pretty good teams.

That is my opinion. And I'm thankful. If because of your schedule you get HFA and the bye helps you win it all there are no asterisks on the Lombardi.

Settle down.

Rank the teams 1-10. Id like to see that. I have a theory about your answer, I'm curious to see if its true.

 

[Galian Beast]

The schedule has been easier than expected but how is that any teams fault. This is not NCAA where you can line up your non conference opponents. Beyond two games on the schedule everyone in the division plays the same schedule. If the Commanders win out their schedule while perceived to be more difficult when the schedule was released get to play the hapless panthers and cards

The problem here in how you interpret the facts. Someone points out something factual to you and you create your own narrative around it in order to get upset.

It's not that the team inherently has any "fault" for their own schedule, rather it is to say that 10-1 doesn't necessarily make you the best team in football or this unstoppable team.

 

[windjc]

The problem here in how you interpret the facts. Someone points out something factual to you and you create your own narrative around it in order to get upset.

It's not that the team inherently has any "fault" for their own schedule, rather it is to say that 10-1 doesn't necessarily make you the best team in football or this unstoppable team.

Who is the best team in football in your opinion? Seattle that just lost in TB? NE that rallied to beat the Jets? Oakland that rallied to beat Carolina at home?

Some other team? I'm curious.

 

[Galian Beast]

Who is the best team in football in your opinion? Seattle that just lost in TB? NE that rallied to beat the Jets? Oakland that rallied to beat Carolina at home?

Some other team? I'm curious.

Right now, I'd definitely say the Patriots. You point out that they had a bad game against the Jets, but that's one bad week. They have almost the same record we do, despite not having Brady the first 4 games of the season. They've only lost one game with Brady and that was to the Seahawks.

To put together a power ranking I'd have to really look at things, and it's 1 in the morning here, so it's not going to be right now.

 

[Kevinicus]

I defended my OP. And I even argued the strawman that you made up saying I should have left out games unplayed. But glad to know you can discredit a post you didnt read just because it destroyed everything you argued against.

I don't think you know what I was arguing at all. The first couple of paragraphs demonstrated that clearly. There was no point in continuing to read. I did not make a strawman. I am not sure you know what it is based on that comment.

Did I say that? No. I said I created this thread to put our SOS in context. For all we know, the Vikings and Lions and Eagles and Giants will have horrible finishes and teams like the Bengals, Steelers, Ravens and Skins will have great finishes. The bottom line is most likely when it is all said and done, our SOS minus our wins and losses will be around .500 just like most everyone else.

So its OUR RECORD THAT MATTERS. That was the point. SOS is a fallacy. It doesn't exist. You are what your record says you are. And these attempts to discredit Dallas because of SOS are ridiculous.

Did I say you said that? Is it not true that those who are making a claim of a weak schedule are doing so based on the schedule played up to this point? I don't know how you could dispute that.

 

[Clarkson]

Green Bay has a winning record if we lose to them.
Washington is 7-3-1 if they take one of two from us.
Steelers and Ravens are 7-4 if we lose to them.
Not saying we've had a tough schedule, but really no one has. And we have two games that significantly skew the overall SOS. Meanwhile, we're 10-1; anyone that plays us has a 10-1 team on their schedule (which we can't have, because you don't play against yourself).

Being 10-1 in the NFL is extremely impressive.

 

[Clarkson]

The top five teams from 10 years ago would roll through this league in their sleep.

lol, source? Anything to back this up other than your feelings?

 

[jazzcat22]

Every team within their own division plays the same 14 teams. The other 2 teams are the same place finishers of other divisions on a rotating schedule. And you never know year to year how these teams will be. Same for the AFC division teams each rotate through, or the other division within the NFC they rotate through.

So the SOS is overblown and over played.

We finished last so got TB & SF...look how TB is playing now....SF looked to be a tough game at the start of the season.
Washington finished firts so got Arizona and Carolina....look how they are playing...TB sure looks better than those 2 teams from their play against Seattle.

 

[erod]

lol, source? Anything to back this up other than your feelings?

Easy.

The best team in the NFC besides Dallas right now is Seattle. They scored 3 points on offense this weekend. Against Tampa. The Giants are 8-3. Have you seen that mess of a team play football? They were struggling to beat Cleveland.

2011 NFL Season
New England 13-3
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 12-4
New Orleans 13-3
Green Bay 15-1
San Francisco 13-3

Those six teams would annihilate this league. Football is regressing quickly.

 

[Clarkson]

Easy.

The best team in the NFC besides Dallas right now is Seattle. They scored 3 points on offense this weekend. Against Tampa. The Giants are 8-3. Have you seen that mess of a team play football? They were struggling to beat Cleveland.

2011 NFL Season
New England 13-3
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 12-4
New Orleans 13-3
Green Bay 15-1
San Francisco 13-3

Those six teams would annihilate this league. Football is regressing quickly.

lol none of that is proof of anything. those are your feelings. and it may be a down year, sure. but what you're saying is all conjecture and ridiculously far from factual.

 

[erod]

lol none of that is proof of anything. those are your feelings. and it may be a down year, sure. but what you're saying is all conjecture and ridiculously far from factual.

Good gawd, I can't do this for you. I just gave you all you needed. Have a good day.

 

[HanD]

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...e-college-football-playoff-applied-to-the-nfl

Best Record vs .500+ Teams

Cleveland Browns –- but how have teams performed against quality opposition? As another example of how the Cowboys are the NFL’s most deserving team, Dallas’ 4-1 record against .500 or better teams is tied with the Seahawks for best in the league –- and Dallas doesn’t have losses to the 4-7 Los Angeles Ramsand 5-6 New Orleans Saints on its resume like Seattle does.

Best Record Vs .500+ Teams
Cowboys4-1
Seahawks4-1
Raiders5-2
Patriots4-2
-----
Falcons3-2
Lions3-2

 

[Sportsbabe]

Just to clarify, Dallas doesn't have some easy or fortunate schedule this year. In fact, if you subtract all the current wins (10) and losses (1) and just look at our opponents records (including division opponents counted twice) against other teams the total record currently is

77-79

In fact, Cleveland and San Francisco skew this stat quite a bit because 11 games out of 16 games would be played against teams with a winning overall record against the rest of the league, including 6 games against teams currently headed to the playoffs.

....and those who buy into it.