Twitter: Sturm comparing Dak downfield completion percentage with other league QBs

[Future]

The issue with Dak throwing downfield is not his ability to actually make the the throws, it's that he doesn't see a lot of the opportunities that are there. It's very simple. When you are that selective about downfield attempts, you're always going to have better numbers.

 

[charron]

It's not flawed, it's measuring the minimum of 20 air yds, but it's also charting how long each play went for. If you look at the 30+yd chart Dak's long is 75 yds, it just means it traveled at least 30 yards, but the play went for 75. It's charting multiple stats of passes of 20+ air yards, like when it says 771 pass yds, it doesn't mean 771 yards in the air.

But Dak had nothing to do with coopers ability to catch, turn and make 2 guys miss. Infact cooper ran his route so good it made the defender fall which is why he was basically standing there alone. Yet dak gets credit for a 90 yard pass when its really a 30 yard. This goes to all of of these passes charted. To me if you are going to put together a chart of deep passes it should only be talking about air yards and then chart the catch rate based on how far a QB actually throws the ball.

 

[speedkilz88]

 

[charron]

Every QB is affected by this same type of scenario though.

True but some QB's benefit more than others having a guy like cooper. Look at Daks stats pre- coop and after. Night and day. Copers ability to make guys miss shouldn't be brought into an equation used to look at qb's.

 

[speedkilz88]

True but some QB's benefit more than others having a guy like cooper. Look at Daks stats pre- coop and after. Night and day. Copers ability to make guys miss shouldn't be brought into an equation used to look at qb's.

Let's just take Joe Montana and Steve Young out of the HOF then, since they had Jerry Freakin' Rice.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...matthew-stafford-among-top-10-tightwindow-qbs

So how does this equate to deep throws? I don't get it?

 

[charron]

Let's just take Joe Montana and Steve Young out of the HOF then, since they had Jerry Freakin' Rice.

so you think without jerry both of those guys are bums...got it.

 

[speedkilz88]

so you think without jerry both of those guys are bums...got it.

Dude you are trying to use a WR (who's never had 1200 yards or 8 TDs in the league) against Dak. It's ludicrous.

 

[Hennessy_King]

It's only for full-time QB's.

Wow. Is the lion dead after this?

 

[percyhoward]

The issue with Dak throwing downfield is not his ability to actually make the the throws, it's that he doesn't see a lot of the opportunities that are there. It's very simple.

I'm not buying the "vision" explanation. You'd have to believe that Dak's vision suddenly gets better late in close games, which makes no sense. A better explanation is that he's conservative until he finds himself in a late & close situation. Jerry alluded to Dak's "logical" approach in a recent interview, which makes me think it's more about Dak himself than the offensive philosophy.

 

[speedkilz88]

I'm not buying the "vision" explanation. You'd have to believe that Dak's vision suddenly gets better late in close games, which makes no sense. A better explanation is that he's conservative until he finds himself in a late & close situation. Jerry alluded to Dak's "logical" approach in a recent interview, which makes me think it's more about Dak himself than the offensive philosophy.

It's both, the coaching staff encourages him to be conservative unless they need to open it up.

 

[Future]

I'm not buying the "vision" explanation. You'd have to believe that Dak's vision suddenly gets better late in close games, which makes no sense. A better explanation is that he's conservative until he finds himself in a late & close situation. Jerry alluded to Dak's "logical" approach in a recent interview, which makes me think it's more about Dak himself than the offensive philosophy.

Even Jason Garrett isn't dumb enough to have a system that chooses to ignore big plays down the field.

Maybe his aggression and vision go hand in hand, but there are dozens and dozens of examples of him not seeing players open down the field. It happens every game. In today's NFL, choosing to be conservative is a horrible trait for a QB to have.

 

[Roadtrip635]

But Dak had nothing to do with coopers ability to catch, turn and make 2 guys miss. Infact cooper ran his route so good it made the defender fall which is why he was basically standing there alone. Yet dak gets credit for a 90 yard pass when its really a 30 yard. This goes to all of of these passes charted. To me if you are going to put together a chart of deep passes it should only be talking about air yards and then chart the catch rate based on how far a QB actually throws the ball.

He's getting credit for it being a 20 yard throw when they're counting how many 20+yd throws he made. The chart is not just keeping track of air yards, it's also keeping track of the total yards from plays that also went over 20yds. Big Ben did not throw a pass 97yds in the air either, but that's not what it's saying. It's saying the pass was over 20yds but his longest 20air yd + pass play itself went for 97 total yds. They are also charting total passing yards(not air yards) of throws of 20+yds or more.

If Dak was getting credit for the pass being 90 airyards, it would also be on the chart of throws 30+ air yards, but it's not. His longest pass play of 30+air yards was 75 total yards.

 

[charron]

Dude you are trying to use a WR (who's never had 1200 yards or 8 TDs in the league) against Dak. It's ludicrous.

no i'm not using anyone against dak. But i would absolutely take yac out of the equation if you are looking at completion percentage on "deep" throws. I would do that across the board not just dak. you miss the point obviously, so i dont care if you disagree.

 

[percyhoward]

Even Jason Garrett isn't dumb enough to have a system that chooses to ignore big plays down the field.

Maybe his aggression and vision go hand in hand, but there are dozens and dozens of examples of him not seeing players open down the field. It happens every game. In today's NFL, choosing to be conservative is a horrible trait for a QB to have.

I mean, logically, your vision is what it is.

 

[817Gill]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...matthew-stafford-among-top-10-tightwindow-qbs

Beat me to it lol. Good post though

 

[charron]

He's getting credit for it being a 20 yard throw when they're counting how many 20+yd throws he made. The chart is not just keeping track of air yards, it's also keeping track of the total yards from plays that also went over 20yds. Big Ben did not throw a pass 97yds in the air either, but that's not what it's saying. It's saying the pass was over 20yds but his longest 20air yd + pass play itself went for 97 total yds. They are also charting total passing yards(not air yards) of throws of 20+yds or more.

If Dak was getting credit for the pass being 90 airyards, it would also be on the chart of throws 30+ air yards, but it's not. His longest pass play of 30+air yards was 75 total yards.

Pass attempt yards by play isn't the same as air yards is it? They are charting total plays over 20 yards. So an easy dump off pass that goes past 20 yards is charted. where I think it's better to simply chart the air yards to get a better idea of what the qb is connecting on and not what the wr, rb etc is doing with it after wards. In my example dak throws it 30 yards, which is good. But cooper ran the other 60 for a td and that makes dak look better than what he actually threw. I think you'd get a better picture of what Quarterbacks are actually doing vs just the end result bacause that is the sum of all of their efforts.

 

[817Gill]

Even Jason Garrett isn't dumb enough to have a system that chooses to ignore big plays down the field.

Maybe his aggression and vision go hand in hand, but there are dozens and dozens of examples of him not seeing players open down the field. It happens every game. In today's NFL, choosing to be conservative is a horrible trait for a QB to have.

The vision argument is way tooo subjective to argue, none of us are him and none of us are his coaches so we don’t know what his flaws are in that area. We don’t know what specific play was called and what was practiced, so it gets tricky trying to decipher that as a fan.

For example, I think it was during the Lions game last year, Charles Davis highlighted a play where Dak didn’t see a wide open Zeke running free into the endzone. But it was a lazy take, because he didn’t point out the pressure that got in Dak’s face before Zeke broke free, or the fact that Zeke wasn’t the first target on the route (we know this because he ran a delayed fly from the backfield which is seldom the hot option).

It would have been impossible for Dak to get to that read and make that pass before the pressure arrived. Now would Dak have seen him with some more time? It’s not our place to say I feel.

 

[conner01]

A full camp and coop for a full season
Gallup grows as a receiver
A slot guy who can run down the field
I expect Dak’s numbers here get better this year

 

[817Gill]

Pass attempt yards by play isn't the same as air yards is it? They are charting total plays over 20 yards. So an easy dump off pass that goes past 20 yards is charted. where I think it's better to simply chart the air yards to get a better idea of what the qb is connecting on and not what the wr, rb etc is doing with it after wards. In my example dak throws it 30 yards, which is good. But cooper ran the other 60 for a td and that makes dak look better than what he actually threw. I think you'd get a better picture of what Quarterbacks are actually doing vs just the end result bacause that is the sum of all of their efforts.

I see what you’re saying, but every QB’s yards include YAC, I’ve never seen that removed to reflect a quarterbacks stat line.

Cooper is a very good YAC WR, but it’s not like he’s some juggernaut that no other team has an equal weapon too. Most good teams have legit deep threats and guys who can create after the catch. In fact, before Cooper we were one of the slowest WR corps, so you could say Dak’s only had 8 games to benefit from a real YAC option at receiver anyway.

I’m not saying Dak is comparable to Mahomes as a deep passer, but no one takes out Tyreek Hill’s YAC to evaluate Mahomes. I don’t think anyone really dismissed YAC in their QB evaluations, unless WR screens and dump offs are the bulk of your offense which is usually a college spread air raid thing.