Twitter: Sturm comparing Dak downfield completion percentage with other league QBs

[CowboysFaninHouston]

From the many scouts who evaluated him. Experts.

This not seeing the field fallacy comes from Dak not always seeing a WR open. Which goes back to the same thing, watching only Dallas games and comparing Dak to highlights from other QB's. No QB in the history of the NFL has always thrown to the best option.

One of Dak's strengths is seeing the field. However, if the WR's are just running at the DB and turning around, seeing the field is not going to help.

I don't disagree. no QB is perfect, even Tom Brady or Brees. but its about how many better plays you make on a regular basis. Brady, Brees, and a few other QBs tend to see that "open" guy more often than not. no one is demanding Dak to be perfect, so lets not make it about that. but Dak does hold on to the ball longer than others. he tends to want to wait and see the WR open and separated before he attempts a throw. last year he started to stare down his recievers having predetermined where he wants to go with the ball and waiting until that receiver was open and not really survey the rest of the field. a lot of that has to do with his drops and bad foot work. good QBs, are surveying the field, seeing the play before its there and then throw as they set their foot. Dak just seems hesitant more often than not, which leads to sacks.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Doesn't it undermine the idea that he sees the field well if he struggled with a more complicated scheme? I've yet to see any analysis of his game showing he sees the field well. One of his biggest criticisms is holding the ball too long, which is directly related to what he's seeing develop.

Holding the ball too long doesn't come from one single reason. He can also be holding onto the ball waiting for the play to develop, the WRs are covered, waiting for them to uncover etc. Our offense had become very predictable and defenders are sitting on routes so he has to hold the ball until a WR can uncover, sometimes they do, sometimes they don't make much effort to either. He does need to make the decision quicker at times when to throw it, when to take a chance, throw it away or take off and run. Mobile QBs tend to hold the ball too long in general, waiting for a big play, that doesn't mean he doesn't see the field well.

 

[Haimerej]

Holding the ball too long doesn't come from one single reason. He can also be holding onto the ball waiting for the play to develop, the WRs are covered, waiting for them to uncover etc. Our offense had become very predictable and defenders are sitting on routes so he has to hold the ball until a WR can uncover, sometimes they do, sometimes they don't make much effort to either. He does need to make the decision quicker at times when to throw it, when to take a chance, throw it away or take off and run. Mobile QBs tend to hold the ball too long in general, waiting for a big play, that doesn't mean he doesn't see the field well.

What tangible evidence is out there that he sees the field well? There seems to be plenty of evidence that he doesn't. The red zone struggles are directly related to the passing game which requires quick decisions and precision passes.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Define, "complexity." Fans like to bandy about these generalizations but rarely provide substance to bolster the argument.

A simpler scheme is generally regarded as allowing for less or quicker reads from the QB, right? When things get more complex, you generally get different route combinations or option routes based on reads made by the receiver and QB. These are dependent on pre and post snap reads, which are directly related to what the players are seeing on the field.

How many times have we seen receivers visibly frustrated at the end of a play? Everyone remembers Beasley (and he paid the price) but there were several times Witten was visibly frustrated as well.



All schemes have slow developing routes. They also have hot routes and checkdowns. But the QB has to recognize when to give up on a downfield route and get rid of the ball. If he saw the field well, why wouldn't he get rid of the ball?



That's simply ridiculous. Literally no one who knows football would say something that absurd. You don't reach the level of NFL coach if your scheme, "doesn't get WRs open." Linehan has always been pass happy and actually put together some prolific passing offenses during his career. Now we're to believe he can't scheme a guy open?



Can you see how the scheme doesn't force a QB to hold the ball, "too long," if he actually sees the field?

Here's what Cooper actually said-

"All the stop routes, I don't know if you noticed but we just couldn't really complete them, because they were literally giving us the go [route]. We called a stop route a third time, and I kind of looked at Dak like 'I don't want to run that', but he was like 'Just run it Coop'. I guess he had a second thought, and at the line of scrimmage, he gave me our go signal. Obviously, we're going to have to change it now that I've divulged that secret, but he gave me our go signal and I beat [the coverage]."

You like to appear to be above the nonsensical, hyperbolic ranting which plagues most fans. Yet it appears you took a simple explanation of how one play worked in one game and indicted the entire scheme.

Check this out-

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/amari-cooper/COO487703

There is Cooper's route charts from each game last year. Looks like he ran plenty of slants and crossing routes, too. You know... those routes you keep saying they don't run?

It's not just about the QB but also the WRs/TEs. We had a big turnover at these positions last year and for the first part of the year rotated them in and out quite a bit. There's not the same level of familiarity, consistency or confidence. Simple or complex concepts don't just affect the QB but the players running the routes too. Hot routes aren't always built in and when they are, it requires not only the QB to see them, but the receiver too and everybody be on the same page. Hurns and Gallup a couple times, both admitted they missed them. Linehan did call plays at times with no options or diversity, giving the receivers very little chance to get open. A frequent play was the 3 or 4 receiver stick route, all 3-4 run the same identical route, defenders just sat on the routes. Linehan's "prolific" offenses came when he had Megatron, Moss and Dez, to an extent, it was less about scheme and more about, just let them out-talent the defense. Jump balls to Megatron doesn't make Linehan a genius.
Mobile QBs tend to hold the ball longer, it's a double edged sword between getting the ball out quick or using that mobility to make a play. Dak certainly has to quicken his decision making at times and should come with more confidence and familiarity with his receivers and experience.

 

[Roadtrip635]

What tangible evidence is out there that he sees the field well? There seems to be plenty of evidence that he doesn't. The red zone struggles are directly related to the passing game which requires quick decisions and precision passes.

The red zone struggles are also tied into the changes on our OL, inexperienced TEs as blockers and pass catchers and WRs. In years past we could just line up and smash the ball in, there was no guile or threat of a pass on the play and still succeed. Without a physical WR like Dez, it took away a lot of what Linehan liked to call in the EZ for pass plays. Somehow it was Dak's fault and all the changes didn't have an affect last year, but we didn't have those struggles in 2016 and 2017?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

From the many scouts who evaluated him. Experts.

This not seeing the field fallacy comes from Dak not always seeing a WR open. Which goes back to the same thing, watching only Dallas games and comparing Dak to highlights from other QB's. No QB in the history of the NFL has always thrown to the best option.

One of Dak's strengths is seeing the field. However, if the WR's are just running at the DB and turning around, seeing the field is not going to help.

I don't disagree. no QB is perfect, even Tom Brady or Brees. but its about average of how many plays they make. Brady, Brees, and a few other QBs tend to see that "open" guy more often than not. no one is demanding Dak to be perfect, so lets not make it about that. but he does need to improve.

 

[Haimerej]

It's not just about the QB but also the WRs/TEs. We had a big turnover at these positions last year and for the first part of the year rotated them in and out quite a bit. There's not the same level of familiarity, consistency or confidence. Simple or complex concepts don't just affect the QB but the players running the routes too. Hot routes aren't always built in and when they are, it requires not only the QB to see them, but the receiver too and everybody be on the same page. Hurns and Gallup a couple times, both admitted they missed them. Linehan did call plays at times with no options or diversity, giving the receivers very little chance to get open.

Every OC in the league calls plays that don't work at times. What you're saying above is true for the most part, though. But it doesn't really address the point about Dak not seeing the field well.

A frequent play was the 3 or 4 receiver stick route, all 3-4 run the same identical route, defenders just sat on the routes.

That is a common play throughout the league. As far as it being, "frequent," I would have to see a breakdown to buy into that rhetoric. Cooper referred to it after one game and I recall Baldinger highlighting it once in a critical way, but if you check out that link to Cooper's routes you'll see he ran a variety of routes. Fans tend to latch onto a couple things and before long that's all they see.

Linehan's "prolific" offenses came when he had Megatron, Moss and Dez, to an extent, it was less about scheme and more about, just let them out-talent the defense. Jump balls to Megatron doesn't make Linehan a genius.

You don't have to be a genius to be a coach. The point was that the man knows how to scheme, as about 98% of coaches do. Writing off his past successes as merely the result of, "jump balls," isn't being serious.

Mobile QBs tend to hold the ball longer, it's a double edged sword between getting the ball out quick or using that mobility to make a play. Dak certainly has to quicken his decision making at times and should come with more confidence and familiarity with his receivers and experience.

Let me explain what I'm talking about when I refer to holding the ball too long.

The whole point behind 3, 5, and 7 step drops is that the ball should be coming out after they plant on that last step. Even the slightest hesitation can close separation gained when a receiver makes his cut. Most fans only see him holding too long when he gets sacked and a replay shows a guy was open. But he routinely waits to see separation instead of anticipating it, which means he's holding it too long.

That hesitation allows defenders to close gaps. It slows receivers down because he's throwing to the spot a split second late. That hinders YAC. Sure, he completed a pass. But he's leaving meat on the bone.

So what does that have to do with seeing the field? Well, you can tell pre snap based on the leverage positions of defenders what kind of a route will work.

For example, if you see a guy in off man coverage with outside leverage, you can generally safely assume an inside route will work (provided an interior defender isn't buzzing underneath). Post snap, you check for that and if it's not there, you make the throw. The best QBs in the league generally know where they're going before the snap because they understand these concepts and can see how the play will develop against the type of defense they're facing.

Most agree Dak holds the ball too long and lacks anticipation. I don't understand how people can recognize that yet say he sees the field well. Those are symptoms of not seeing the field.

 

[Haimerej]

The red zone struggles are also tied into the changes on our OL, inexperienced TEs as blockers and pass catchers and WRs. In years past we could just line up and smash the ball in, there was no guile or threat of a pass on the play and still succeed. Without a physical WR like Dez, it took away a lot of what Linehan liked to call in the EZ for pass plays. Somehow it was Dak's fault and all the changes didn't have an affect last year, but we didn't have those struggles in 2016 and 2017?

When were they just smashing the ball in? I recall a lot of shotgun and read options at the goal line in 2016 and 2017. Jumbo packages don't work as well in today's NFL.

Granted, having Frederick out hurt and Witten wasn't exactly replaced last year. But teams don't fear Dak's arm, especially in the red zone. This isn't to say he can't improve. Just saying as of now he's part of the red zone issues.

 

[Roadtrip635]

When were they just smashing the ball in? I recall a lot of shotgun and read options at the goal line in 2016 and 2017. Jumbo packages don't work as well in today's NFL.

Granted, having Frederick out hurt and Witten wasn't exactly replaced last year. But teams don't fear Dak's arm, especially in the red zone. This isn't to say he can't improve. Just saying as of now he's part of the red zone issues.

Seriously? You really don't remember seeing us just flat out punching the ball in, no deception, no guile, just plain 'ol hat on hat move the pile football? It's answers like that, that make me really wonder if people actually watch games.

It wasn't just the loss of Witt, but also Hanna, who was a very good blocking TE.


Here's one of the more memorable just smashing the ball in we even used a FB, we did a lot of this in '16 and '17

 

[kskboys]

I don't disagree. no QB is perfect, even Tom Brady or Brees. but its about how many better plays you make on a regular basis. Brady, Brees, and a few other QBs tend to see that "open" guy more often than not. no one is demanding Dak to be perfect, so lets not make it about that. but Dak does hold on to the ball longer than others. he tends to want to wait and see the WR open and separated before he attempts a throw. last year he started to stare down his recievers having predetermined where he wants to go with the ball and waiting until that receiver was open and not really survey the rest of the field. a lot of that has to do with his drops and bad foot work. good QBs, are surveying the field, seeing the play before its there and then throw as they set their foot. Dak just seems hesitant more often than not, which leads to sacks.

True. And there is a good chance that at least some of this was on Linehan.

Linny was still running the O based on Romo's skillset. I haven't seen any adjustments to suit Dak's skillset. From what I can see, you're referring to running a timing based O. I don't believe we were doing that.

 

[Haimerej]

Seriously? You really don't remember seeing us just flat out punching the ball in, no deception, no guile, just plain 'ol hat on hat move the pile football? It's answers like that, that make me really wonder if people actually watch games.

I remember it. But you're acting as though it's all they did. I can guarantee they scored more off of read options than hat on hat smashmouth.

It wasn't just the loss of Witt, but also Hanna, who was a very good blocking TE.

Witten is not a good blocker. He used to be, but the last few years he wasn't. Side note about Hannah- he was a horrible blocker at OU and came in as a pass catching TE. I wonder how he developed into such a good blocker since all I hear from most fans is how the coaches suck and they don't develop anyone.

Here's one of the more memorable just smashing the ball in we even used a FB, we did a lot of this in '16 and '17

They did the same thing in PHI last year to go up 27-20... as long as we're using one play as evidence. I guess your concerns are unfounded.

 

[Roadtrip635]

I remember it. But you're acting as though it's all they did. I can guarantee they scored more off of read options than hat on hat smashmouth.



Witten is not a good blocker. He used to be, but the last few years he wasn't. Side note about Hannah- he was a horrible blocker at OU and came in as a pass catching TE. I wonder how he developed into such a good blocker since all I hear from most fans is how the coaches suck and they don't develop anyone.



They did the same thing in PHI last year to go up 27-20... as long as we're using one play as evidence. I guess your concerns are unfounded.

You were the one that couldn't remember that we have been a power running team, especially in the RZ. Of course when confronted with an example, then you say you remember. I never said that's all they did, but it was a large part of what this team did in the RZ and helped them to convert at a much higher rate.

Witten has always been a pretty good blocker and while not what he used to be, he was still better than the inexperienced TEs that filled in after he left. Hanna improved after being drafted, maybe the hire of Pope as TE coach was a big help, since it was that season he started to come into his own as a blocker also Murray's big year, ,maybe he wasn't as bad coming out of college as you try to make it sound, maybe it was a combination of things, regardless he was given a second contract and was a good blocking TE in the NFL. What he did in college is irrelevant after performing in the pros.

You're the one taking the struggles of one season and completely forgetting about the success in the previous two, and disregarding all the cumulative changes in personnel as contributing factors instead it must all be Dak's fault. Of the 11 starters, 6 were new and had very limited time playing together since we don't really use the pre-season. Of the 4 TEs we had only 1 had ever even caught a pass in the NFL and he had a whooping 11 career catches. Of course Dak can improve, but there was a lot more contributing to our RZ struggles than just Dak.

 

[Haimerej]

You were the one that couldn't remember that we have been a power running team, especially in the RZ. Of course when confronted with an example, then you say you remember. I never said that's all they did, but it was a large part of what this team did in the RZ and helped them to convert at a much higher rate.

They're not a power running team. They run zone blocking schemes and use the athleticism of the offensive linemen in space. This isn't the Great Wall of the 90's knocking guys off the line of scrimmage.

Witten has always been a pretty good blocker and while not what he used to be, he was still better than the inexperienced TEs that filled in after he left.

At blocking? No. Witten became a guy who just gets in the way of the defender the last few years and became prone to getting put on skates. As you said earlier, if you, "actually watch games," you wouldn't be touting his run blocking from those last few years.

Hanna improved after being drafted, maybe the hire of Pope as TE coach was a big help, since it was that season he started to come into his own as a blocker also Murray's big year, ,maybe he wasn't as bad coming out of college as you try to make it sound, maybe it was a combination of things, regardless he was given a second contract and was a good blocking TE in the NFL. What he did in college is irrelevant after performing in the pros.

What he did in college is relevant when discussing how he improved his game as a pro. I watched him play in college. He wasn't a blocking TE. Are you familiar with his time at OU?

You're the one taking the struggles of one season and completely forgetting about the success in the previous two, and disregarding all the cumulative changes in personnel as contributing factors instead it must all be Dak's fault.

You appear to struggle with reading comprehension. I'll repeat myself and highlight the relevant portion-

"Granted, having Frederick out hurt and Witten wasn't exactly replaced last year. But teams don't fear Dak's arm, especially in the red zone. This isn't to say he can't improve. Just saying as of now he's part of the red zone issues."

How you take, "part of," the issues as meaning, "all... Dak's fault," is beyond me.

Of the 11 starters, 6 were new and had very limited time playing together since we don't really use the pre-season. Of the 4 TEs we had only 1 had ever even caught a pass in the NFL and he had a whooping 11 career catches. Of course Dak can improve, but there was a lot more contributing to our RZ struggles than just Dak.

There was more, sure. Things like Frederick being out and not replacing Witten... but I repeat myself.

 

[Kaiser]

Most agree Dak holds the ball too long and lacks anticipation. I don't understand how people can recognize that yet say he sees the field well. Those are symptoms of not seeing the field.

The problem with that argument is that it wasn't an issue when he was a rookie. So if its there now, he somehow forgot how to see the field.

He did have issues rushing at times but improved. The biggest issues IMO were the OL playing so poorly last year and Linehan being so predictable that DBs could jump routes knowing that 9 times out of 10 the play call wasn't going to burn them deep.

 

[Haimerej]

The problem with that argument is that it wasn't an issue when he was a rookie. So if its there now, he somehow forgot how to see the field.

He did have issues rushing at times but improved. The biggest issues IMO were the OL playing so poorly last year and Linehan being so predictable that DBs could jump routes knowing that 9 times out of 10 the play call wasn't going to burn them deep.

I would argue that during his rookie campaign things were simplified to the point that he didn't have to see the field well.

Teams have adjusted and are forcing him to stay in the pocket, similar to how teams gameplan against Cam or Russell. One of the most notable adjustments is the backside defender staying home on play action and taking away his rollout. That was a big part of his success as a rookie and teams are doing what they can to take it away.

 

[OldCoach]

Nick Mullins and Ryan Fitzmagic are 2&3. Dak os ahead of Rodgers Brady and Rothlesberger. Wouldn’t put much into this list.

 

[percyhoward]

Completing more intermediate (10-20 yard range) passes would alleviate that issue.

Totally agree -- to the outside of the field. I believe that Dak's inefficiency at that explains a lot of year 2 woes when there was talk of Dez, Witten, and Beasley all declining in the same year, but in reality defenses just started clogging the middle of the field because Dak wasn't hitting WRs to the outside.

On intermediate throws, Dak has indeed shifted his attention away from the middle of the field, and he's been less successful when doing so.

Prescott's 10-19 yd targets only
Distribution (% of these targets that were outside the numbers) / passer rating
2016 51.6% / 119.9
2017 53.9% / 80.0
2018 61.7% / 78.5

Prescott 2018
10-19 yd targets only, outside the numbers only
completion rate 54% 522 yd 4 td 3 int 78.5
all other depths and areas
completion rate 69% 3855 yd 20 td 6 int 98.7

But it's mostly about the receiver.

Prescott 2018
10-19 yd targets only, outside the numbers only
to Beasley/Cooper
completion rate 72% 194 yd 1 td 0 int 125.6
to all others
completion rate 47% 328 yd 3 td 3 int 62.5

And Gallup's intermediate routes had improved after 12 games.

Games 13-18
CATCH RATE on 10-19 yard targets
Gallup 67% (10 of 15)
Cooper 63% (10 of 16)
Beasley 75% (3 of 4)

Gallup 2018
Weeks 1-12
21% (3 of 14)
Weeks 13-18
67% (10 of 15)

 

[percyhoward]

I would argue that during his rookie campaign things were simplified to the point that he didn't have to see the field well.

That might explain some of the drop in passing efficiency, but Dez's decline was probably the main factor. In 2017, even when Tyron was healthy and Zeke was still playing, we kept forcing it to Dez despite these results:

Prescott 2017
Passer Rating by Target
WR only, games 1-8
Bryant 38 of 75 (50.7%) 439 yd 5.9 ypa 4 td 2 int 75.4
others 64 of 97 (66.0%) 759 yd 7.8 ypa 6 td 2 int 101.6

 

[percyhoward]

The problem with that argument is that it wasn't an issue when he was a rookie. So if its there now, he somehow forgot how to see the field.

For me, the biggest problem with the "vision" theory is that a QB's vision doesn't suddenly get better late in close games.

Prescott's 15+yd targets (as a percentage of total attempts)
Quarters 1-3: 12.2%
Late & Close: 25.7%

passer rating on those attempts
Quarters 1-3: 101.6
Late & Close: 115.1

*Late & Close = 4th qtr/OT margin 8 points or less

I'm supposed to believe Dak doesn't see anybody open until the 4th quarter?

 

[Jake]

Nick Mullins and Ryan Fitzmagic are 2&3. Dak os ahead of Rodgers Brady and Rothlesberger. Wouldn’t put much into this list.

The "list" isn't an opinion piece. It's statistical data. When perceptions collide with reality why is reality dismissed?