RustyBourneHorse
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 40,950
- Reaction score
- 47,159
So, I was posting in a thread, and someone mentioned about Shadeur Sanders. I've been heavily on the record wanting Jeanty. That said, suppose we do take Shadeur Sanders? So, for this thread, I will explore two ways that I could see us going about this.
As I've stated before, Dak's contract (assuming no restructures) would have to be examined. The below link is the details of his contract. There is a tab when looking at his cap hits for "post-June cut".
https://overthecap.com/player/dak-prescott/4848
To me, as I've stated in other threads that I've written, the most optimal times to make Dak a post June 1 cut are 2026 ($40,010,000.00 in cap savings and a $27,686,666.00 cap hit)or 2027 ($45,000,000.00 cap savings and a $16,691,666.00 cap hit).
Before I layout my two scenarios, I must explain why I wouldn't just have Shadeur takeover to start 2025. This offense is far too one dimensional, and, given Dak's contract, we have the luxury of letting a QB sit for a season or two like the Packers did with Love or the Chiefs did with Mahomes. So, it would be better to let him sit a season or two under Dak while he learns the pro game. So, I will present the scenario for him taking over in 2026 (Dak cut in June that year) and 2027 (Dak cut in June that year). I will then, after analysing the two scenarios, provide what I think is the best scenario.
The next thing, before I get into the scenarios, is to look at the most optimal draft (will dive into this more after the SB). Assuming we first draft Sanders, I would then draft Dion Walker (NT Kentucky) or Nazir Stackhouse (NT Georgia) in round 2 and go oline round 3. I'm thinking someone like Xavier Truss (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xavier_Truss). He's 6'7". Unfortunately, this is where having a 4th round pick would be helpful, but hopefully Mingo can step in as a good receiver aside from Lamb. The running backs in this draft class after round 4 (from what I see on Walter Football) don't look very appealing. Additionally, we probably would still have another year or two to get the team ready. Plus, this is assuming we don't restructure Dak, so we are eating a cap hit here. Luckily, cutting Terrance Steele with a June 1 cut in 2025 should save some cap space. However, I think the savings would go to a new contract for Parsons. Unfortunately, I also don't like our safeties if we don't spend on FA entering 2025. On the other hand, the starting oline would probably be (assuming Martin retires) Tyler Smith, Bass, Beebe, Truss (RG), and Guyton (RT, his natural position). Obviously, Dak would start the entirety (assuming healthy) of 2025 and we'd probably want someone like Lance or another backup in the wings until Sanders is ready. Oh, and DLaw will be gone, and I don't think we have enough draft space for another pass rusher in 2025. Luckily, we have Kneeland.
So, now, let's suppose we cut Dak in 2026 for scenario 1. We'd have a dead hit of $27 mil and cap savings of just over $40 mil and a QB on a rookie deal. Assuming Parsons is extended in the 2025 offseason, here are the other contracts that expire after 2025 (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/contracts). So, it looks like the expiring contracts after 2025 (again, assuming we extend Parsons after the season) would be Jake Ferguson, Wilson, Tolbert, Bland, Waletzko, Bass, and Aubrey among others. Obviously, we will want to extend Aubrey and Bland. We will also probably want to extend Ferguson. So, (of course, we could trade players like Tolbert and Bland after the season for picks), but, depending on the cap space following this, we still need a guard, WR, and a safety. I'd probably draft a guard, RB (since we wouldn't be able to get a good one in 2025), a CB (if we trade Bland), and WR and use FA on a quality safety. Good news, we would have a newly extended Aubrey, a suitable replacement for Tolbert to mix in with Mingo and Lamb, and another guard to replace Bass. Oh, and we should have a better run game and safety play. The downside is that we probably can't adequately replace all the losses, and our linebackers would still be rail thin. But, the nose tackle from 2025 should still be helpful in stopping the run. Plus, we have Sanders with 4 more years (assuming we use the option).
Now, suppose we use the cut in 2027 to gain $44 mil. Again, we are assuming Parsons is extended following the cut of Steele. I think in 2026, we have to extend Aubrey either way. In this situation, it makes even more sense to try to trade Bland. Additionally, we will still probably want to sign Ferguson. But, we wouldn't be able to sign as many players. But, we still probably draft a RB, guard, and WR. We also would need a safety in the draft. On the plus side, it gives us another year to make sure the team is ready for Sanders to take over. Downside, Mazi (DT), Kneeland, Liafu, and Beebe currently are scheduled for their contracts to expire in 2027 (of course, using the option on Mazi moves his expiration date to 2028, so let's assume we do that). We'd have 4 mil extra in cap space to extend these players. Additionally, we don't seem to have as many expiring contracts in 2027, so we can use the extra cap savings to fill other weaknesses. The one downside about waiting until 2027 to start Sanders is that he'd only have 3 years left (assuming we use his 5th year option) on his rookie deal.
I'm aware the above scenarios are a mouthful. I think the positives of starting Sanders in 2026 is that we get 4 years of him playing on his rookie deal, and we should have some decent weapons around him. The problem is, the running game wouldn't be ideal yet, and our linebackers room wouldn't be great. But, the nose tackle we draft in 2025 would help with our run defence.
The positives of starting Sanders in 2027 is we'd have more time to make sure he can be successful, but he'd have one less year with his rookie deal. However, assuming the Joneses address the linebackers and any other key weaknesses entering 2027, he should be able to succeed from the time he starts. Additionally, he might get some playing time at the end of 2026 before taking over 2027 to get his feet wet in the NFL. Additionally, Dak's dead hit is significantly reduced in 2027, which means that we aren't as hampered with our 2027 cap space.
So, to me, I would think it's a bit better to let him take over in 2027 as the full time starter and let Dak go in 2027. We'd have a little more cap space and the cap hit wouldn't be as high. So, we'd have more cap space available. It would mean being patient waiting for him to take over, but I think the patience would be rewarded by ensuring he has the ability to succeed. We would be able to have sufficient time with Dak's deal to be able to make sure he's as prepared as possible to start and to succeed.
As I've stated before, Dak's contract (assuming no restructures) would have to be examined. The below link is the details of his contract. There is a tab when looking at his cap hits for "post-June cut".
https://overthecap.com/player/dak-prescott/4848
To me, as I've stated in other threads that I've written, the most optimal times to make Dak a post June 1 cut are 2026 ($40,010,000.00 in cap savings and a $27,686,666.00 cap hit)or 2027 ($45,000,000.00 cap savings and a $16,691,666.00 cap hit).
Before I layout my two scenarios, I must explain why I wouldn't just have Shadeur takeover to start 2025. This offense is far too one dimensional, and, given Dak's contract, we have the luxury of letting a QB sit for a season or two like the Packers did with Love or the Chiefs did with Mahomes. So, it would be better to let him sit a season or two under Dak while he learns the pro game. So, I will present the scenario for him taking over in 2026 (Dak cut in June that year) and 2027 (Dak cut in June that year). I will then, after analysing the two scenarios, provide what I think is the best scenario.
The next thing, before I get into the scenarios, is to look at the most optimal draft (will dive into this more after the SB). Assuming we first draft Sanders, I would then draft Dion Walker (NT Kentucky) or Nazir Stackhouse (NT Georgia) in round 2 and go oline round 3. I'm thinking someone like Xavier Truss (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xavier_Truss). He's 6'7". Unfortunately, this is where having a 4th round pick would be helpful, but hopefully Mingo can step in as a good receiver aside from Lamb. The running backs in this draft class after round 4 (from what I see on Walter Football) don't look very appealing. Additionally, we probably would still have another year or two to get the team ready. Plus, this is assuming we don't restructure Dak, so we are eating a cap hit here. Luckily, cutting Terrance Steele with a June 1 cut in 2025 should save some cap space. However, I think the savings would go to a new contract for Parsons. Unfortunately, I also don't like our safeties if we don't spend on FA entering 2025. On the other hand, the starting oline would probably be (assuming Martin retires) Tyler Smith, Bass, Beebe, Truss (RG), and Guyton (RT, his natural position). Obviously, Dak would start the entirety (assuming healthy) of 2025 and we'd probably want someone like Lance or another backup in the wings until Sanders is ready. Oh, and DLaw will be gone, and I don't think we have enough draft space for another pass rusher in 2025. Luckily, we have Kneeland.
So, now, let's suppose we cut Dak in 2026 for scenario 1. We'd have a dead hit of $27 mil and cap savings of just over $40 mil and a QB on a rookie deal. Assuming Parsons is extended in the 2025 offseason, here are the other contracts that expire after 2025 (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/contracts). So, it looks like the expiring contracts after 2025 (again, assuming we extend Parsons after the season) would be Jake Ferguson, Wilson, Tolbert, Bland, Waletzko, Bass, and Aubrey among others. Obviously, we will want to extend Aubrey and Bland. We will also probably want to extend Ferguson. So, (of course, we could trade players like Tolbert and Bland after the season for picks), but, depending on the cap space following this, we still need a guard, WR, and a safety. I'd probably draft a guard, RB (since we wouldn't be able to get a good one in 2025), a CB (if we trade Bland), and WR and use FA on a quality safety. Good news, we would have a newly extended Aubrey, a suitable replacement for Tolbert to mix in with Mingo and Lamb, and another guard to replace Bass. Oh, and we should have a better run game and safety play. The downside is that we probably can't adequately replace all the losses, and our linebackers would still be rail thin. But, the nose tackle from 2025 should still be helpful in stopping the run. Plus, we have Sanders with 4 more years (assuming we use the option).
Now, suppose we use the cut in 2027 to gain $44 mil. Again, we are assuming Parsons is extended following the cut of Steele. I think in 2026, we have to extend Aubrey either way. In this situation, it makes even more sense to try to trade Bland. Additionally, we will still probably want to sign Ferguson. But, we wouldn't be able to sign as many players. But, we still probably draft a RB, guard, and WR. We also would need a safety in the draft. On the plus side, it gives us another year to make sure the team is ready for Sanders to take over. Downside, Mazi (DT), Kneeland, Liafu, and Beebe currently are scheduled for their contracts to expire in 2027 (of course, using the option on Mazi moves his expiration date to 2028, so let's assume we do that). We'd have 4 mil extra in cap space to extend these players. Additionally, we don't seem to have as many expiring contracts in 2027, so we can use the extra cap savings to fill other weaknesses. The one downside about waiting until 2027 to start Sanders is that he'd only have 3 years left (assuming we use his 5th year option) on his rookie deal.
I'm aware the above scenarios are a mouthful. I think the positives of starting Sanders in 2026 is that we get 4 years of him playing on his rookie deal, and we should have some decent weapons around him. The problem is, the running game wouldn't be ideal yet, and our linebackers room wouldn't be great. But, the nose tackle we draft in 2025 would help with our run defence.
The positives of starting Sanders in 2027 is we'd have more time to make sure he can be successful, but he'd have one less year with his rookie deal. However, assuming the Joneses address the linebackers and any other key weaknesses entering 2027, he should be able to succeed from the time he starts. Additionally, he might get some playing time at the end of 2026 before taking over 2027 to get his feet wet in the NFL. Additionally, Dak's dead hit is significantly reduced in 2027, which means that we aren't as hampered with our 2027 cap space.
So, to me, I would think it's a bit better to let him take over in 2027 as the full time starter and let Dak go in 2027. We'd have a little more cap space and the cap hit wouldn't be as high. So, we'd have more cap space available. It would mean being patient waiting for him to take over, but I think the patience would be rewarded by ensuring he has the ability to succeed. We would be able to have sufficient time with Dak's deal to be able to make sure he's as prepared as possible to start and to succeed.
