Tanier: Monday Morning Digest

[JD_KaPow]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...wins-no-guarantee-of-2nd-round-success/page/7

Lots of good stuff, including the following. (Sorry it doesn't fit into the growing narrative around here about the media disrespecting us.)

Game Preview: Packers at Cowboys

Heading In

The Packers overcame a shaky start against the Giants to pull away late for a 38-13 win that had most of the earmarks of a typical Packers victory: Aaron Rodgers heroics, a successful Hail Mary, great run defense, little run offense, an unforced error (read: dropped pass) or two by the opponent and a long stretch when the offense looked so dull and predictable that Packers fans had flashbacks to mid-October.

The Cowboys clinched home-field advantage three weeks ago and spent the end of the season carefully balancing workloads and health risks with momentum alchemy when deciding which starters (and expensive superstar backups) to rest before the playoffs.

Few teams in recent history spent as much time as the Cowboys reading the rest-versus-rust tea leaves. None of it really matters, because no major players were significantly injured in meaningless action, and teams good enough to clinch in Week 15 have plenty of margin for error when it comes to overthinking simple decisions.

How It Will Go

We will all make a fuss about the Ice Bowl, even though it took place years before most of us were born, and then about the #DezCatch game from the 2014 season's playoffs.

Then we will remember the Cowboys beat the Packers 30-16 in Lambeau in mid-October. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards. Dak Prescott threw three touchdowns. Dez Bryant didn't even play.

That was a different Packers team than the one we have seen lately, but not that different. Ty Montgomery was already involved in the offense at that point. Clay Matthews and the secondary were as healthy as they are now.

The Cowboys are just built to counteract Rodgers' whiz-bang heroics with a bend-but-not-break defense and a ball-control offense. The Cowboys' running game neutralizes the Packers blitz and uses the team's defensive aggressiveness against it. The conservative Cowboys defense forces Rodgers to matriculate down the field with flat passes and running plays, causing Packers drives to stall whenever the quarterback is less than perfect.

Rodgers has not been less than perfect often. But the Cowboys don't need perfection to win. They just need to play their brand of football.

Prediction

Cowboys 27, Packers 23

 

[Doc50]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...wins-no-guarantee-of-2nd-round-success/page/7

Lots of good stuff, including the following. (Sorry it doesn't fit into the growing narrative around here about the media disrespecting us.)

Game Preview: Packers at Cowboys

Heading In

The Packers overcame a shaky start against the Giants to pull away late for a 38-13 win that had most of the earmarks of a typical Packers victory: Aaron Rodgers heroics, a successful Hail Mary, great run defense, little run offense, an unforced error (read: dropped pass) or two by the opponent and a long stretch when the offense looked so dull and predictable that Packers fans had flashbacks to mid-October.

The Cowboys clinched home-field advantage three weeks ago and spent the end of the season carefully balancing workloads and health risks with momentum alchemy when deciding which starters (and expensive superstar backups) to rest before the playoffs.

Few teams in recent history spent as much time as the Cowboys reading the rest-versus-rust tea leaves. None of it really matters, because no major players were significantly injured in meaningless action, and teams good enough to clinch in Week 15 have plenty of margin for error when it comes to overthinking simple decisions.

How It Will Go

We will all make a fuss about the Ice Bowl, even though it took place years before most of us were born, and then about the #DezCatch game from the 2014 season's playoffs.

Then we will remember the Cowboys beat the Packers 30-16 in Lambeau in mid-October. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards. Dak Prescott threw three touchdowns. Dez Bryant didn't even play.

That was a different Packers team than the one we have seen lately, but not that different. Ty Montgomery was already involved in the offense at that point. Clay Matthews and the secondary were as healthy as they are now.

The Cowboys are just built to counteract Rodgers' whiz-bang heroics with a bend-but-not-break defense and a ball-control offense. The Cowboys' running game neutralizes the Packers blitz and uses the team's defensive aggressiveness against it. The conservative Cowboys defense forces Rodgers to matriculate down the field with flat passes and running plays, causing Packers drives to stall whenever the quarterback is less than perfect.

Rodgers has not been less than perfect often. But the Cowboys don't need perfection to win. They just need to play their brand of football.

Prediction

Cowboys 27, Packers 23

I agree, but I think we'll win by at least 10 points.

 

[roughneck266]

I agree with pretty much all of this, but I think we win by 10.

 

[sean10mm]

The Cowboys offense is a really bad match-up for the Packers defense. They probably can't stop the run straight-up (they sure couldn't last time), but they can't load the box either because their secondary is so dire that if they leave their corners on an island they'll get dunked on all day.

Slowing down Rodgers will be tough, but the Packers have no run game to help him, so they're very one-dimensional. Win time of possession and keep him from making any quick scores and they can control the game. You'll know the game is going to plan if it looks like the Packers are slowly being crushed to death by a very heavy weight, which is what all the good Cowboys games this year have looked like.

 

[YosemiteSam]

The Cowboys offense is a really bad match-up for the Packers defense. They probably can't stop the run straight-up (they sure couldn't last time), but they can't load the box either because their secondary is so dire that if they leave their corners on an island they'll get dunked on all day.

Dom Capers is still their defensive coordinator. He is a guy similar to Rod Marinelli that can make a defense play better than they actually are. If he calls a good game, the Cowboys will have trouble.

This is just another reason I would never bet on NFL football. I'm not the type to just throw money out there and hope for the best.

 

[robbieruff]

From my perspective, the last time the Pack faced a "scary" offense was their loss to the Skins. During the streak, I frankly can't point to one team you'd put into a category of "good" let alone "great" offense at game time. Some of those opponents have improved since (namely Seattle) but the Pack's D caught a pretty lucky break during the second half of the season. They certainly didn't have to face an attack as balanced and efficient as us who could throw against that secondary AND make them pay when they're forced to play coverage.

This smells of the first game when all that fuss was made about their godly run D shutting us down. We are way better offensively than any of those chumps they faced during the streak. It will be made painfully obvious next Sunday when we put on a clinic.

 

[JD_KaPow]

From my perspective, the last time the Pack faced a "scary" offense was their loss to the Skins. During the streak, I frankly can't point to one team you'd put into a category of "good" let alone "great" offense at game time. Some of those opponents have improved since (namely Seattle) but the Pack's D caught a pretty lucky break during the second half of the season. They certainly didn't have to face an attack as balanced and efficient as us who could throw against that secondary AND make them pay when they're forced to play coverage.

There's certainly a lot of truth to this. During their winning streak, they've faced (by DVOA) the 20th, 30th, 17th, 16th, 26th, 15th and 22nd ranked offenses. And it's worse than that, really: several of those trended down late in the season.

 

[sean10mm]

Dom Capers is still their defensive coordinator. He is a guy similar to Rod Marinelli that can make a defense play better than they actually are. If he calls a good game, the Cowboys will have trouble.

This is just another reason I would never bet on NFL football. I'm not the type to just throw money out there and hope for the best.

Capers is actually widely hated by Packers fans. He's been the team's biggest scapegoat for years.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Capers is actually widely hated by Packers fans. He's been the team's biggest scapegoat for years.

...and their fans wanted to fire Mike McCarthy. Enough said.

Packer fans (and probably a majority of Cowboy's fans) should heed this.

https://lh3.***BROKEN***/-T0K-6E870dU/WHP8CG_xwUI/AAAAAAAFwJ4/ec5HXYmHaLQ7hAftbVuCiesLt_jolZ0rgCL0B/w346-h447/1ARFS.png

 

[Longboysfan]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...wins-no-guarantee-of-2nd-round-success/page/7

Lots of good stuff, including the following. (Sorry it doesn't fit into the growing narrative around here about the media disrespecting us.)

Game Preview: Packers at Cowboys

Heading In

The Packers overcame a shaky start against the Giants to pull away late for a 38-13 win that had most of the earmarks of a typical Packers victory: Aaron Rodgers heroics, a successful Hail Mary, great run defense, little run offense, an unforced error (read: dropped pass) or two by the opponent and a long stretch when the offense looked so dull and predictable that Packers fans had flashbacks to mid-October.

The Cowboys clinched home-field advantage three weeks ago and spent the end of the season carefully balancing workloads and health risks with momentum alchemy when deciding which starters (and expensive superstar backups) to rest before the playoffs.

Few teams in recent history spent as much time as the Cowboys reading the rest-versus-rust tea leaves. None of it really matters, because no major players were significantly injured in meaningless action, and teams good enough to clinch in Week 15 have plenty of margin for error when it comes to overthinking simple decisions.

How It Will Go

We will all make a fuss about the Ice Bowl, even though it took place years before most of us were born, and then about the #DezCatch game from the 2014 season's playoffs.

Then we will remember the Cowboys beat the Packers 30-16 in Lambeau in mid-October. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards. Dak Prescott threw three touchdowns. Dez Bryant didn't even play.

That was a different Packers team than the one we have seen lately, but not that different. Ty Montgomery was already involved in the offense at that point. Clay Matthews and the secondary were as healthy as they are now.

The Cowboys are just built to counteract Rodgers' whiz-bang heroics with a bend-but-not-break defense and a ball-control offense. The Cowboys' running game neutralizes the Packers blitz and uses the team's defensive aggressiveness against it. The conservative Cowboys defense forces Rodgers to matriculate down the field with flat passes and running plays, causing Packers drives to stall whenever the quarterback is less than perfect.

Rodgers has not been less than perfect often. But the Cowboys don't need perfection to win. They just need to play their brand of football.

Prediction

Cowboys 27, Packers 23

And the Cowboy outside line backer and CB need to contain the naked roll outs.

I think he caught Sean Lee one time on that - then not one other time.