Tanier: NFL Refinancing (Falcons, Cowboys, Steelers)

[InmanRoshi]

With the draft loaded at wide receiver, it would have been a wise time to recognize that Austin peaked in 2009-10 instead of making him a dead-money hangover for 2014 and 2015.

Why do sportswriters continue to believe that cutting players means you gain extra draft picks?

 

[speedkilz88]

Why do sportswriters continue to believe that cutting players means you gain extra draft picks?

Is this guy even a sportswriter? Not that it matters, I think the cap is over his pay grade regardless.

 

[EGTuna]

Tanier is an outstanding columnist.

He used to write for the very analytical and math heavy FootballOutsiders, so he's not some random blogger. He's also a former math teacher (coincidentally, Joe Flacco was one of his students). Long story short, he knows his stuff.

His main point is that the cowboys are merely transferring a credit card balance to another credit card - which is a bad business practice. They're restructuring players to keep a core together that has won ONE playoff game since 2006, and gone 6-10, 8-8, 8-8 the last three years. I agree with him completely, as the team is not talented enough to practice this kind of short-sighted salary cap management.

 

[JBond]

Tanier is an outstanding columnist.

He used to write for the very analytical and math heavy FootballOutsiders, so he's not some random blogger. He's also a former math teacher (coincidentally, Joe Flacco was one of his students). Long story short, he knows his stuff.

His main point is that the cowboys are merely transferring a credit card balance to another credit card - which is a bad business practice. They're restructuring players to keep a core together that has won ONE playoff game since 2006, and gone 6-10, 8-8, 8-8 the last three years. I agree with him completely, as the team is not talented enough to practice this kind of short-sighted salary cap management.

Correct. It's not like we are trying to retain super stars. We are going to compound the problems by extending Romo again. Instead of extending him use the Franchise tag on him next year and try to find his replacement now. Actually planning ahead is something that has never occurred to Jones. Instead we are going to extend Romo to free up money to pay average players much more than they are worth. Just dumb.

 

[Nightman]

Tanier is an outstanding columnist.

He used to write for the very analytical and math heavy FootballOutsiders, so he's not some random blogger. He's also a former math teacher (coincidentally, Joe Flacco was one of his students). Long story short, he knows his stuff.

His main point is that the cowboys are merely transferring a credit card balance to another credit card - which is a bad business practice. They're restructuring players to keep a core together that has won ONE playoff game since 2006, and gone 6-10, 8-8, 8-8 the last three years. I agree with him completely, as the team is not talented enough to practice this kind of short-sighted salary cap management.

You do realize that Cowboys can still be under the cap after tagging Spencer by some 15m. They won't have the 5m next year and Spencer will be re-signed or be off the books. As will Free, Sensabaugh, Connor and probably Bern and Livings.

Right now the only dead money on the books is 2m from Newman last year and now 1.5m for Sensy.

 

[EGTuna]

You do realize that Cowboys can still be under the cap after tagging Spencer by some 15m. They won't have the 5m next year and Spencer will be re-signed or be off the books. As will Free, Sensabaugh, Connor and probably Bern and Livings.

Right now the only dead money on the books is 2m from Newman last year and now 1.5m for Sensy.

It's not a matter of being under the cap this year. It's about (way) overvaluing your own talent so that you can re-sign guys in their 30s who have won one playoff game and haven't had a winning record in 4 years.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Tanier is an outstanding columnist.

He used to write for the very analytical and math heavy FootballOutsiders, so he's not some random blogger. He's also a former math teacher (coincidentally, Joe Flacco was one of his students). Long story short, he knows his stuff.

His main point is that the cowboys are merely transferring a credit card balance to another credit card - which is a bad business practice. They're restructuring players to keep a core together that has won ONE playoff game since 2006, and gone 6-10, 8-8, 8-8 the last three years. I agree with him completely, as the team is not talented enough to practice this kind of short-sighted salary cap management.

Mike's very smart and talented. However, he's had issues when it comes to writing about the Cowboys. IIRC, he wrote about them for the 2010 Pro Football Prospectus and it was such an anti-Cowboys bias that they decided to not have him write about the Cowboys again since his arguments were irrational and biased by his love for the Eagles.

It's not that I don't agree with some of his points, although the D-Ware talk is flat out loopy, IMO. And the Romo stuff is on the right track for the future, but way too soon at this juncture which is what Tanier has had a habit of doing in his work when the Cowboys are involved. So it didn't surprise me that he wrote this because he has some points, but his anti-Cowboys bias clouds his judgment and makes him go overboard on some things...just like it did a few years ago when he wrote about the team in PFP.







YR

 

[Yakuza Rich]

It's not a matter of being under the cap this year. It's about (way) overvaluing your own talent so that you can re-sign guys in their 30s who have won one playoff game and haven't had a winning record in 4 years.

Overvalueing is a relative term.

To me, overvalueing is a bad thing when:

1. You lose higher draft picks because you traded them away for veterans that were overvalued.

2. You lose quality players to FA because you cannot afford to pay them since you paid $$$ to said 'overvalued players.'

Otherwise, I don't see the harm in overvalueing players other than it costs the owner money.

I would be hard pressed to see either #1 or #2 to be proven to me.

The Roy Williams trade was 5 years ago. We gave up picks...but for Claiborne. We gave up a 7th rounder for Ryan Cook, but all in all I think we came out better in that trade since most 7th rounders never play in the NFL and we didn't need a kicker, punter or long snapper.

As far as 'losing players', we lost Canty. But, he was extremely overvalued by the G-Men and '2 wrongs don't make a right.' The same with Bowen.

Other than that, I can't think of any player we lost to FA that made a major impact.






YR

 

[cowboysooner]

The article's flaw is it assumes committed money is "bad" and space is "good".

Prior and future guaranteed money is the "bad". But not having anyone signed long term on your roster is also a "bad". Having players signed to a contract but with no or low guaranteed money is actually a very, very good. You can cut the player, ask for a paycut or even get a bargain with that salary on the books.

Many writers act as though there is some sort of transitive property of Belicheck for anyone that worked for him.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Mike's very smart and talented. However, he's had issues when it comes to writing about the Cowboys. IIRC, he wrote about them for the 2010 Pro Football Prospectus and it was such an anti-Cowboys bias that they decided to not have him write about the Cowboys again since his arguments were irrational and biased by his love for the Eagles.

It's not that I don't agree with some of his points, although the D-Ware talk is flat out loopy, IMO. And the Romo stuff is on the right track for the future, but way too soon at this juncture which is what Tanier has had a habit of doing in his work when the Cowboys are involved. So it didn't surprise me that he wrote this because he has some points, but his anti-Cowboys bias clouds his judgment and makes him go overboard on some things...just like it did a few years ago when he wrote about the team in PFP.

That is an excellent and accurate assessment. I love Tanier-- I think he's probably the single best guy writing about football out there--except when it comes to the Cowboys. But as you say, I think there's some truth in what he says.

 

[cowboyvic]

Tanier is an outstanding columnist.

He used to write for the very analytical and math heavy FootballOutsiders, so he's not some random blogger. He's also a former math teacher (coincidentally, Joe Flacco was one of his students). Long story short, he knows his stuff.

His main point is that the cowboys are merely transferring a credit card balance to another credit card - which is a bad business practice. They're restructuring players to keep a core together that has won ONE playoff game since 2006, and gone 6-10, 8-8, 8-8 the last three years. I agree with him completely, as the team is not talented enough to practice this kind of short-sighted salary cap management.

I agree with him too. these core players have missed the playoffs 4 of the last 5 years. and have 1 playoff win since they have been here. yet Jerry keeps hanging on hoping for a miracle.these core players are getting worse not better.it's called doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.it's just sad.

 

[Muhast]

That 32 million projection will have about 18 million added for matt ryans new deal, probably 5-6 million for william moore, about 8 million for brent grimes, 7-10 million for roddy white, 7-8 for sam baker, 8-10for witherspoon. It is easy to see how quickly locking up 6 players can add onto your cap. That puts them around 80-90 million before adding julio or any other players they may resign or pick up in free agency

 

[Yakuza Rich]

That is an excellent and accurate assessment. I love Tanier-- I think he's probably the single best guy writing about football out there--except when it comes to the Cowboys. But as you say, I think there's some truth in what he says.

It reminds me of the arguments I would have with SABERmetrics people with regards to overvalueing players in baseball.

In theory, it sounds rational to say that 'overvaluing = bad.' But, there has to be some relationship where there are repercussions for overvaluing players. On a side note, my argument in baseball was that teams like the Yankees and Red Sox could afford to overvalue players. Their goal should be to field the best team possible, not the best team possible with the funds they have.

With football and the salary cap, it has more to do with losing players and/or draft picks. We really haven't seen that problem outside of Roy Williams. I guess one could argue that we lost out on FA's to fill spots on the roster like O-Line and safety, but those guys would likely be considered 'overvalued' as well.

To me, Tanier is not wrong...but, he's not right either. Our process isn't killing the team. However, I think there is a better way to do things than we are doing now.






YR

 

[Future]

Tanier is an outstanding columnist.

He used to write for the very analytical and math heavy FootballOutsiders, so he's not some random blogger. He's also a former math teacher (coincidentally, Joe Flacco was one of his students). Long story short, he knows his stuff.

His main point is that the cowboys are merely transferring a credit card balance to another credit card - which is a bad business practice. They're restructuring players to keep a core together that has won ONE playoff game since 2006, and gone 6-10, 8-8, 8-8 the last three years. I agree with him completely, as the team is not talented enough to practice this kind of short-sighted salary cap management.

I don't see why "transferring" it is such a bad idea. Why can't you just keep doing it every year? It's not like you can't sign FAs b/c you have bad credit or something.

I don't see a problem with having to rework contracts every year in order to get under.

 

[joseephuss]

To me, Tanier is not wrong...but, he's not right either. Our process isn't killing the team. However, I think there is a better way to do things than we are doing now.

Tanier's example was to cut Ware was horrible. He may be right in his theory, but he has to come up with a much better example than that. He just cut his own legs out from under himself.

 

[perrykemp]

I don't see why "transferring" it is such a bad idea. Why can't you just keep doing it every year? It's not like you can't sign FAs b/c you have bad credit or something.

I don't see a problem with having to rework contracts every year in order to get under.

My take-away isn't that transferral part of his argument -- it is the fact that the Cowboys are basically keeping the "core" of the team together because they think their window is closing AND that this core of guys has actually done didly squat over the past decade.

 

[joseephuss]

My take-away isn't that transferral part of his argument -- it is the fact that the Cowboys are basically keeping the "core" of the team together because they think their window is closing AND that this core of guys has actually done didly squat over the past decade.

And he compares that to the Falcons who have done just a little more than didly squat over the past decade while playing in a weaker division.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Tanier's example was to cut Ware was horrible. He may be right in his theory, but he has to come up with a much better example than that. He just cut his own legs out from under himself.

I don't argue with you on that one. I think that is particularly true given we are going to the 4-3 where the edge rusher spot is a bit more crucial.





YR

 

[Risen Star]

I don't argue with you on that one. I think that is particularly true given we are going to the 4-3 where the edge rusher spot is a bit more crucial.





YR

Wait. Why is the edge rusher in a 4-3 more crucial?

 

[perrykemp]

And he compares that to the Falcons who have done just a little more than didly squat over the past decade while playing in a weaker division.

Yes. He points out "Falcons have $70 million committed in 2014 and $32 million in 2015'

In otherwords, they've made a run with the existing set of guys they have -- haven't quite made it, but haven't crippled themselves for the future by endlessly extending the core of the team.