tank carradine at 18

[JBS]

all 5 OL are gone and the cowboys take carradine at 18-are you ok with that?

 

[RS12]

Highly doubt that happens. Datone Jones more likely and I doubt that too.

 

[NeonDeion21]

Highly doubt that happens. Datone Jones more likely and I doubt that too.

I'm a fan of both. Either would be good with me.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

Not really. I'd prefer Richardson or Vaccaro in that situation. Ideally, I'd like to trade back. If the 5 OLinemen, Star, and Richardson are off the board, I'd be fine with the Cowboys trading way back as there is a big dropoff on my board between those players and the rest.

 

[Picksix]

Not really. I'd prefer Richardson or Vaccaro in that situation. Ideally, I'd like to trade back. If the 5 OLinemen, Star, and Richardson are off the board, I'd be fine with the Cowboys trading way back as there is a big dropoff on my board between those players and the rest.

Trading back is fine, and usually you find a willing partner and a fair deal. But what if they can't, and they have to pick someone at 18? I don't have a problem with Carradine or Jones there, but I'd prefer Vacarro.

 

[tm1119]

I prefer his teammate Werner. Might sound stupid, but there's a reason Tank wasn't starting over Werner at FSU. Tank might be the better athlete, but I see Werner as a much more complete player.

 

[TheSport78]

Heck no! I'd try to trade down like crazy but if I HAD to make a pick, I'd go Sylvester Williams.

EDIT: Forgot about Vaccaro...he's definitely the choice before Williams

 

[Eskimo]

The notion that there are so many different players who may make sense to us in this scenario here is good proof that the best move may be to drop down with so many players with similar ratings and many of the best choices perhaps not lining up with our needs.

If we got to trade back into the mid 20s and maybe pick up a 3rd rounder in the process I'd be happy with Datone Jones, Sylvester Williams, Werner or Vacarro.

I'd probably be okay even with trading out of the first for a high second rounder and a first rounder next year from a team choosing in the 8 this year in hopes that we got a top 10 pick next year. Maybe we can end up with an elite QB or Clowney. I don't think we'd actually be giving up all that much in quality of player in this draft by making this move but teams sometimes fall in love with a certain player and are willing to give up next year's pick to secure a guy they think will be a difference maker. Our best shot at such a scenario is if a team falls in love with Barkley, Nassib, or Manuel who have had some first round rumbles here and there.

As an alternative, I wouldn't be against swapping the pick for the 49ers picks but I don't want to give up our second rounder to do so. I want to accumulate extra picks in a trade down.

This is a deep draft at OL, DL and Safety and I want at least one of each in the first 3 rounds which is much easier if you have 4 picks if you are staying faithful to your board.

I still hope Cooper falls to that pick but that seems to be unlikely.

 

[hra8700]

The notion that there are so many different players who may make sense to us in this scenario here is good proof that the best move may be to drop down with so many players with similar ratings and many of the best choices perhaps not lining up with our needs.

If we got to trade back into the mid 20s and maybe pick up a 3rd rounder in the process I'd be happy with Datone Jones, Sylvester Williams, Werner or Vacarro.

I'd probably be okay even with trading out of the first for a high second rounder and a first rounder next year from a team choosing in the 8 this year in hopes that we got a top 10 pick next year. Maybe we can end up with an elite QB or Clowney. I don't think we'd actually be giving up all that much in quality of player in this draft by making this move but teams sometimes fall in love with a certain player and are willing to give up next year's pick to secure a guy they think will be a difference maker. Our best shot at such a scenario is if a team falls in love with Barkley, Nassib, or Manuel who have had some first round rumbles here and there.

As an alternative, I wouldn't be against swapping the pick for the 49ers picks but I don't want to give up our second rounder to do so. I want to accumulate extra picks in a trade down.

This is a deep draft at OL, DL and Safety and I want at least one of each in the first 3 rounds which is much easier if you have 4 picks if you are staying faithful to your board.

I still hope Cooper falls to that pick but that seems to be unlikely.

The question is why would anyone trade up if no one is worth the 18th pick?

 

[Eskimo]

The question is why would anyone trade up if no one is worth the 18th pick?

The issue isn't whether we have all the players ranked closely. The issue is whether some team has fallen in love with a player. It seems to happen nearly every year and often happens around this slot of the draft. So if someone wants to do one of those deals then I"m all over it in this draft given our needs and the draftboard unless Cooper or Star are still on the board.

 

[1LoyalCowboyFan]

all 5 OL are gone and the cowboys take carradine at 18-are you ok with that?

No I'm not. Richardson or trade down. Vaccaro I'm not completely sold on. Some say he wasn't used properly in the defense. A darn shame if true.

 

[JBS]

No I'm not. Richardson or trade down. Vaccaro I'm not completely sold on. Some say he wasn't used properly in the defense. A darn shame if true.

Richardson is gone in this scenario. Probably should have made that clear.

I don't think anyone think Vaccaro was used incorrectly, it's more that he played slot CB a lot which took away from his ability to make plays on the ball. Ie- build up INTs. That's an invaluable skill to possess as a safety. Hard to argue that he was used wrong

 

[hra8700]

The issue isn't whether we have all the players ranked closely. The issue is whether some team has fallen in love with a player. It seems to happen nearly every year and often happens around this slot of the draft. So if someone wants to do one of those deals then I"m all over it in this draft given our needs and the draftboard unless Cooper or Star are still on the board.

I think the issue is that most teams see the board fairly similarly, so if the cowboys think there is no one of much interest there's a good chance other teams don't as well. Someone might fall in love with a player, but to trade up they have to fall in love AND worry that the player won't last. That's normally the case when the team that wants to trade down either is stacked at that position or runs a scheme that won't fit. I think the issue is that there are only maybe 15 or so players that are "first round grades" in the draft, and there's a decent chance they'll all be taken by 18. That's why everyone wants to trade down. But the issue is in that case no one will want to trade up.

Sure, there's an off chance that someone will want to trade up, but the more likely situation is that Jerry will call around, not find a partner, and then will be forced to make a pick. The option to trade down is not always there, and is more rare than common.

A great example is the Aaron Rodgers pick. Green Bay had him as the last player with a first round grade. They had a quarterback so they tried to trade down. They couldn't find a partner, so they went BPA.

 

[Eskimo]

I think the issue is that most teams see the board fairly similarly, so if the cowboys think there is no one of much interest there's a good chance other teams don't as well. Someone might fall in love with a player, but to trade up they have to fall in love AND worry that the player won't last. That's normally the case when the team that wants to trade down either is stacked at that position or runs a scheme that won't fit. I think the issue is that there are only maybe 15 or so players that are "first round grades" in the draft, and there's a decent chance they'll all be taken by 18. That's why everyone wants to trade down. But the issue is in that case no one will want to trade up.

Sure, there's an off chance that someone will want to trade up, but the more likely situation is that Jerry will call around, not find a partner, and then will be forced to make a pick. The option to trade down is not always there, and is more rare than common.

A great example is the Aaron Rodgers pick. Green Bay had him as the last player with a first round grade. They had a quarterback so they tried to trade down. They couldn't find a partner, so they went BPA.

I know what you're saying but it happens every year. It is right around the stage where the last true first rounder comes off the board. So the team that is the trading partner really relishes getting up to take the last first rounder off of the board. You also have to remember that they aren't giving up a first rounder. Rather they are getting their first rounder a year early and give up a second rounder this year for the ability to do so. The guys that someone may be in love with at that part of the draft could be Matt Barkely or Tavon Austin or Sheldon Richardson.

My point is only to say that I would be happy to take such a deal this year because of the depth at the positions we are interested in is quite good.

 

[JBS]

Teams trade up every single year...this idea that teams won't want to trade up is foolish..

Teams have different needs and different boards

 

[hra8700]

Teams trade up every single year...this idea that teams won't want to trade up is foolish..

Teams have different needs and different boards

But how often do teams TRY to trade down but can't find a partner. That's information we don't know. It's very possible it happens multiple times every round.

 

[hra8700]

In regards to carradine, every analyst I care about seems to think he would be at least a top 10 pick without the injury. How far should you drop a player with a torn acl, when we're seeing such high recovery rates? Unclear, especially whenevery other DE prospect has so many question marks. I think he will definitely go in the 1st, not sure if 18 is a reach. But I really like him, and getting an injured player to play backup de his first year then letting spencer walk and starting him in 2014 makes a lot of sense to me.

I think if Vacarro, Richardson, cooper, and warmack are off the board, and we can't trade down, I'd like:

1. Jon Jenkins
2. Carradine
3. Sylvester Williams
4. Dj fluker
6. Werner

 

[Eskimo]

In regards to carradine, every analyst I care about seems to think he would be at least a top 10 pick without the injury. How far should you drop a player with a torn acl, when we're seeing such high recovery rates? Unclear, especially whenevery other DE prospect has so many question marks. I think he will definitely go in the 1st, not sure if 18 is a reach. But I really like him, and getting an injured player to play backup de his first year then letting spencer walk and starting him in 2014 makes a lot of sense to me.

I think if Vacarro, Richardson, cooper, and warmack are off the board, and we can't trade down, I'd like:

1. Jon Jenkins
2. Carradine
3. Sylvester Williams
4. Dj fluker
6. Werner

IDK about how far to drop down for sure. With Bruce Carter we're told he was going to be a mid-first rounder but instead ended up being a mid-second rounder. With his situation we also knew he was going to miss TC and a good chunk of the season so there was some discounting for that reason as well.

It seems to me that most of the scouts seem to have Carradine as a top of the second round or bottom of the first round right now. He could be a candidate in a trade down. I always think you have to be careful about drafting a player where there are multiple other top caliber players on the same unit as it can make him look better than he really is because the opposition can't afford to double them or gameplan around them as they might do in other situations. I think FSU had 3 really good DL so that can make it hard to decide each one of them individually is.

It seemed to me that before the combine the one who was getting more press was Werner. But then his results were fairly mediocre and he has fallen down from the top 5 to the 20s. The numbers didn't look that bad to me with a 4.81 40, 4.40 short shuttle, 7.30 3cone drill, 25 bench, 35.5 vert. Perhaps they were expecting more. Damontre Moore was another guy who fell back a great deal after the Combine and there was even some talk of him going first overall whereas now there is talk of him falling all the way into the second round. So who knows how Carradine would have faired? Right now the world is so upside down with talk of Ansah going in the top 5 despite a pretty pedestrian college career at BYU.

 

[hra8700]

IDK about how far to drop down for sure. With Bruce Carter we're told he was going to be a mid-first rounder but instead ended up being a mid-second rounder. With his situation we also knew he was going to miss TC and a good chunk of the season so there was some discounting for that reason as well.

It seems to me that most of the scouts seem to have Carradine as a top of the second round or bottom of the first round right now. He could be a candidate in a trade down. I always think you have to be careful about drafting a player where there are multiple other top caliber players on the same unit as it can make him look better than he really is because the opposition can't afford to double them or gameplan around them as they might do in other situations. I think FSU had 3 really good DL so that can make it hard to decide each one of them individually is.

It seemed to me that before the combine the one who was getting more press was Werner. But then his results were fairly mediocre and he has fallen down from the top 5 to the 20s. The numbers didn't look that bad to me with a 4.81 40, 4.40 short shuttle, 7.30 3cone drill, 25 bench, 35.5 vert. Perhaps they were expecting more. Damontre Moore was another guy who fell back a great deal after the Combine and there was even some talk of him going first overall whereas now there is talk of him falling all the way into the second round. So who knows how Carradine would have faired? Right now the world is so upside down with talk of Ansah going in the top 5 despite a pretty pedestrian college career at BYU.

So, I don't really ever watch tape of college players, and if I did I wouldn't really know what I was seeing (as is the case with basically every non professional). My opinions are based solely on my understanding of which analysts are knowledgeable, and being able to read between the lines of what is gossip and what is real information.

Having said that, I did watch all of carradine's snaps against Virginia tech a few days ago...and boy oh boy was he dominant. He made Werner look like a joke. He was chasing down running backs from behind, the guy has legit speed (I believe the reports of 4.6), can really turn the corner, and really really strong. Not a big sample size, I have no ability to actually scout, but it got me excited.

In regards to what people are saying, people like Greg cosell, Dave Farrar, Daniel Jeremiah, broadus...people who know what they're watching (and all those "anonymous afc gm" or "one teams scout") seem really high on him. I think his workout in a couple weeks will be huge, but apparently he is making a speedy recovery.

The other thing I love is that he's only played like 10 games of college football. He has a lot of upside.

In regards to other dominant de's on his team, everyone says that he took more than his fair share of double teams and beat them, and that he was their most impressive rusher.

In regards to precombine draft stock, I think that is all hype by "analysts" who don't watch tape. Once the senior bowl hits and they start talking to real nfl people, that's when their boards change. It's not the nfl people changing their boards, it's the media changing theirs once they find out who's really valued and who's not. Scouts have been saying Moore wasn't nearly a 1st round talent for a while. Daniel Jeremiah had a tweet saying he hasn't talked to a single nfl scout who thought so. I don't think teams were, likewise, ever too high on Werner. One great example is the "sudden drop" of jarvis jones. There was a "rumor" I read in January that jones would drop because teams didn't "expect" him to do well in drills. So already from the tape teams knew he wouldn't be a workout guy. His stock didn't really change.

 

[Eskimo]

I don't follow college football much either. I do seem to remember Werner having a lot of buzz in the preseason and then he had a decent season and then the post-season draft boards seemed to all have him in the top 5.

The thing about the analysts versus the scouts is that I think they are in communication to some extent throughout the year. So I don't think it is that all of a sudden the scouts start to talk to the analysts after the Combine as much as it is harder to make evaluations of players without context. Once you have your film impression you have an idea of how that player performs in that defense against those opponents. The Combine let's you see their raw athleticism objectively and also let's you see how they do in drills when they are lined up one after another so they can sort out who looks better than who in the drills.

I think it is an exercise of evaluating all the information available and it is just that more and more information becomes available after the post-season all-star games, the Combine and the Pro days. Everything gets fully dissected watching all the plays of the players you are interested in from the season and analyzing what you think they are capable of at the next level.

It is all a very inexact science.

I'll take your word about Carradine. I had heard good things about him but it seemed like Werner was the one that always seemed to get more notoriety. It may very well be that Carradine ends up being the superior pro.

The one thing that worries me is we haven't had a good track record with college players who had history of injuries lately. Sean Lee, Bruce Carter and Demarco Murray have all missed a substantial amount of time the last couple of seasons and we may have soured on that whole draft strategy now. Under the present system you only control players for 4 years and the draft value of a redshirt player is dramatically lowered from losing 25% of that time.

I wouldn't penalize Carradine too much from an isolated ACL tear if he had a pristine history prior to that and had a good operative report from the surgeon and good post-op evaluation by the sports med doctors. I don't think Carradine will be healthy enough to go through a formal Pro Day before the draft, will he? He does sound like a perfect fit for LDE in Kiffen's defense and fits his preference for fast players who relentlessly pursue the ball. I'd love to be able to let Spencer walk and free up the cap space. I also think the DL is in need of a major youth injection with all of the starting four about to hit 30 and two of them coming off injury plagued years. If Cooper is gone my preference would be to draft a DL with our first pick based on the way the boards are lining up and if Carradine is the best one then so be it. I don't think Carradine or Moore fit what Kiffen wants and Ansah and Jordan will be long gone. I do think there is a big dropoff at DT after Floyd and Star and think Richardson is a good notch below those two and the same holds ture for Sylvester Williams.

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out and I'm sure there'll be surprises along the way.

I always love draft time.