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Teachable Moment: That's why you go for two early

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by JD_KaPow, Sep 20, 2020.

  1. risco

    risco Well-Known Member

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    Mike and those damn analytics, lol!
     
    DakPresgoat likes this.
  2. JD_KaPow

    JD_KaPow jimnabby

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    The Falcons were never down 15, so no they didn't.
     
    DakPresgoat likes this.
  3. ghst187

    ghst187 Well-Known Member

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    If you kick it first, the game is still a one score game you just need the 2pt after the next TD.
    Missing it early can deflate your players.
    Even with how it worked out, there still was no benefit to going for it early.
    The only possible benefit is catching the other team off guard a little and how you manage the clock on the next drive knowing you need two scores still.
     
    Jack Burton likes this.
  4. droopdog7

    droopdog7 Well-Known Member

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    So I was all over the insane people complaining about going for two early and even started my own post after the game that didn’t make cut here.

    https://cowboyszone.com/threads/peo...hat-going-for-two-on-first-td-was-bad.463853/

    As much as it makes sense to go for two early, you’re not going to convince the people against it for one simple reason.

    They’re implicitly giving the cowboys two chances to make one 2-point conversion. In other words, they already know we missed the 2-point try the first time. So they want to turn back time, kick the extra point and get a SECOND try on the last touchdown.

    How dumb?!?

    Knowing what you need to do early is much better than knowing late.
     
  5. JD_KaPow

    JD_KaPow jimnabby

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    No, you don't know how many scores you need if you kick the XP. You need either a TD and a 2-pointer, or a TD (with a failed 2-pointer) and a FG. You do not know what it will take to win.

    The only thing you accomplish by waiting is taking the onside kick option entirely off the table. I'm not saying it's a great option, but you don't even have that if you wait.
     
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  6. BoysfaninVegas

    BoysfaninVegas Well-Known Member

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    My thought is always keep it a 1 score game. Otherwise, you're going to rely on a kicker and luck to save you. That's what happened today and we got lucky.
     
    Jack Burton likes this.
  7. Runwildboys

    Runwildboys Well-Known Member

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    Well put.
     
    NorthTexan95 likes this.
  8. CyberB0b

    CyberB0b Village Idiot

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    [​IMG]

    Found this chart. Down 9 with 5:00 to go it is slightly higher EV to for 2 in this scenario, as noted by the orange, but it extremely close.



    "When down 9 points late-ish, there’s a case that you should go for 2, because being down 8, you would have to go for 2 to draw even eventually anyway, and it’s better to know whether you converted your attempt earlier so you can make tactical adjustments. Although this logic seems sound, the data doesn’t suggest the effect is very significant (if it exists at all)."


    So it looks like EVERYONE is right. This specific scenario is heavily based on psychology and not the data, since the data is very close.
     
  9. JD_KaPow

    JD_KaPow jimnabby

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    The "only possible benefit" you describe is exactly the benefit. You know what you need to do on the next drive.

    If your players are so soft that they won't play hard after missing the 2-pointer, then I don't want those guys. The Cowboys sure didn't fold today.
     
  10. blueblood70

    blueblood70 Well-Known Member

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    im saying early in the game they tried a 2 and failed and it cost them the game
     
  11. Loso86

    Loso86 Well-Known Member

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    Sounds good except if you dont get it like they didmt, it makes it STILL a 2 POSSESSION game, you make the field goal it's a ONE POSSESSION GAME, what's hard about that!?. Hettimgthe ball is tough to come bu in the NFL my friend it's not guaranteed
     
  12. JD_KaPow

    JD_KaPow jimnabby

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    That's got nothing to do with what we're discussing here.
     
  13. JD_KaPow

    JD_KaPow jimnabby

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    Good lord. It's only a one-possession game if you end up making the 2-pointer later. Why are you assuming they'll make that? I mean, we know they failed on the 2-pointer when they did try it.

    An 8-point deficit isn't really a "one-possession game." It might be, but you simply don't know.
     
    GhostOfPelluer likes this.
  14. Keithfansince5

    Keithfansince5 Well-Known Member

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    This is what arguing over a false viewpoint looks like. Going for 2 before you need to is a losing strategy.
     
    Loso86 likes this.
  15. CyberB0b

    CyberB0b Village Idiot

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    It isn't though.
     
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  16. JD_KaPow

    JD_KaPow jimnabby

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    In the long run, you will win more games going for it early than late.
     
    DakPresgoat likes this.
  17. droopdog7

    droopdog7 Well-Known Member

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    That is a COMPLETELY different issue. That was dumb.

    In our case, we knew we needed to go for two at some point.
     
  18. Lutonio

    Lutonio Well-Known Member

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    It makes more sense in my head thinking it as possession instead of scores. I like the game being guaranteed one possession instead of setting up to gamble on an onside kick.
     
    Keithfansince5 likes this.
  19. Loso86

    Loso86 Well-Known Member

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    Have you played football before...?
     
  20. droopdog7

    droopdog7 Well-Known Member

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    What are you talking about? If we miss the 2-point on the second try we still need an onside kick. But we might have less time in the clock because we don’t have the same urgency.

    You don’t get two tries at the 2-point conversion.
     

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