If Collins camp agrees to a trade to the Titans, Lael could agree to a mult-year deal with the Titans. and if the Titans are interested in a trade for Lael, they would be making that deal for Lael to be an immediate starter and contribute immediately this year, as opposed to next year when he becomes a FA, when multi teams could have a free run at him.
And you never know what/how other NFL teams see and value a player more than what it assumed. Players get overvalued often. If that happens in the NFL draft, it happens in FA, it can happen in trades.
it would be much like our near trade for Earl Thomas, when it's assumed we would've likely hammered out a long term deal while the two teams agree upon the trade compensation.
When it's substantial trade compensation/contract in question it would make sense for a team making that kind of acquisition to a long term commitment.
Only a lower risk type trade acquisition (ala Robert Quinn) may be more of an exception.
Consider the Reverse Scenario
Example:
Cowboys do NOT have La'el Collins or Connor Williams.
Cowboy do have Cam Fleming and a rookie 4th round OT (and the same udfa rookie OTs).
Another team has La'el Collins and his is available in a trade.
He has the identical background as he does now in terms of past performance.
He is on the final year of his contract just like he is now.
What would it be worth to the Cowboys to trade for La'el Collins in the hypothetical scenario?
- They might get a small discount on the contact as compared to signing him as a free agent next March.
- At best the discount would be something like 9M per instead of 10M per (i.e. about 10% at the very best).
- The Cowboys are in Win-Now mode; therefore, they would have a significant focus on his performance for 2019.
- It's possible that the 4th round rookie OT or one of the UDFA rookie OTs step up in training camp and out perform Fleming.
- If not, then Fleming at RT is probably OK. Likely NFL average in his best games and a little below average in other games.
- A Joe Looney at Center in 2018 type of performance or somewhere in that ballpark would be the expectation.
Is La'el Collins worth a 3rd round pick in that scenario?
Is it worth trading him away if only a 4th round pick is received as compensation?
He'll net a comp pick if stays for 2019.
Other considerations:
Some GMs over-pay in trades for players with average performance history because the player has Wow type physical ability.
Collins doesn't have Wow type physical ability for an OT.
His foot quickness is on the lower end of the acceptable range.
His height is OK but the prototype is 6-5 to 6-6 and he is 6-4.
His arm length is OK but average at best even for Right Tackles. It's short for Left Tackles (33-3/4").
His height/arm-length wouldn't be an issue if he had elite foot quickness, but he doesn't.
A team wants Collins to play OG.
A team could target him as an OG but that makes him even less proven.
He did start 14 total games at OG for his first two seasons, but up & down performances.
Great power but abundant mistakes.
When Teams Over-Pay in Draft Pick Compensation
Earl Thomas was a game changing All Pro type player in his career. He might still be one.
Teams might over-pay in picks to trade for that type of player even at this late stage in his career.
Neither the Cowboys or other teams did (over-pay in trade) a year ago (probably because he wanted too much money).
I don't think any teams see La'el Collins as the type of commodity worth over-paying in a trade.
Summary:
Is Collins a slam-dunk quality starter in 2019 for a Win-Now team? Not really (better odds than most rookies, but not a "lock").
Is Collins a projected future Top 5 type at his position? Not really (it's possible, but not a high probability).
Can Collins move to LT in the future? Highly Unlikely.
