You're saying two different things and conflating them. You don't "judge" the decision using the result. The decision was either good or bad regardless of outcome. The outcome can be good or bad as well. And you can incorporate that result in your calculation of risk/reward in the next decision. But you didn't know what you didn't know at the time the original decision was made. You simply can't say "he shouldn't have made that decision because the results were bad."
Not conflating anything
Any process improvement has to start from matching up results with what was done and why it was done
The starting point has to be "we made a bad decision based on the results, let's figure out why or how that happened "
If you don't look at decision making in the light of the results (pretty much the definition of hindsight) how can you hope to learn and improve
I am done with this discussion because this is a very basic concept and it is quite clear to me that even though you realize you were wrong you are not willing to admit it
