The Bell Curve, Bledsoe and Romo

Pine Needle

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I wrote this a few minutes ago in the Opinions thread, but Colishaws article stimulated me to re-post it in its own thread. This stinking mess in Dallas has to change.

The article I wrote:

We are all steaming mad about the Cowboys debacle in Philly. We went in with the best talent, the best coach, the best team, and we got our ***** whipped. Yes, we were whipped. In the 1st quarter, I saw Bledsoe from a near straight-on shot as he looked downfield from the huddle. I moaned loudly and said to my wife that Bledsoe was scared. You can see the fear in his eyes in that 1st quarter video. They are big as saucers, with tiny orbs of color surrounded by a sea of white. The man was wetting his pants from the pressure, and he folded like a cheap tent in the game.

Bledsoe was a pretty good quarterback five years ago, but he is well down the backside of the Bell curve now. The Bell curve is a common statistical measurement of performance, etc. In Bledsoe's case, he started out pretty good as a college draftee/rookie, got better as he learned the job, peaked, was benched, traded, traded again and now he starts for our team over Tony Romo.

But Bledsoe is no good as a contending NFL starter. He is years beyond his prime, and in his prime he was only "better than average". We will never win the division with him, and have no possible chance of winning the superbowl with Bledsoe as starting QB for the Dallas Cowboys.

Start Romo now. He will screw up, sure. Who cares? Romo will just get better and better. He will improve and the man has the best instincts for football that I have seen in a Dallas QB in years. He reminds me of Joe Montana, a player the Cowboys thought too small to play pro ball.

If Romo does not start in the next game, we are dead for the season. If he starts two games from now, it will be too late. His first game will be a great game, but his second game will be very rough, I expect, as the excitement for him gives way to responsibility and new realities.

But we must transition from that proven loser Bledsoe to the current QB hope, Tony Romo. He has the instincts, the mobility to mitigate the piss poor performance of our offensive line, and a fresh body. Bledsoe is finished. After he takes a couple of hits, his brain just tanks. He is done, no better than a very good backup now.

Do not even think about his performance against the Titans last week. The Tits are a very, very bad team right now and 11 guys from this forum could at least score against them. No, Bledsoe is washed up. If Parcells keeps him as No. 1, then Parcells has simply slipped into the doddering old malaise of pre-retirement, where coaches stick with worn out, used-up players that they know from "way back", because he's familiar with the player and doesn't actually have to think anymore.

That's mine. Go Cowboys!
:star::star::star::star::star:
 

AbeBeta

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Dude, change the title. What you are talking about has nothing to do with the Normal Distribution (Bell Curve) at all. The center of the curve is the average - you are calling it the peak. That is just wrong -- that would mean "peaking" corresponded to an average performance. The far right of the curve, where you are suggesting Drew is right now would correspond to excellent performance. Also, the curve does not measure trends as you suggest.
 

justbob

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Pine Needle;1079500 said:
I wrote this a few minutes ago in the Opinions thread, but Colishaws article stimulated me to re-post it in its own thread. This stinking mess in Dallas has to change.

The article I wrote:

We are all steaming mad about the Cowboys debacle in Philly. We went in with the best talent, the best coach, the best team, and we got our ***** whipped. Yes, we were whipped. In the 1st quarter, I saw Bledsoe from a near straight-on shot as he looked downfield from the huddle. I moaned loudly and said to my wife that Bledsoe was scared. You can see the fear in his eyes in that 1st quarter video. They are big as saucers, with tiny orbs of color surrounded by a sea of white. The man was wetting his pants from the pressure, and he folded like a cheap tent in the game.

Bledsoe was a pretty good quarterback five years ago, but he is well down the backside of the Bell curve now. The Bell curve is a common statistical measurement of performance, etc. In Bledsoe's case, he started out pretty good as a college draftee/rookie, got better as he learned the job, peaked, was benched, traded, traded again and now he starts for our team over Tony Romo.

But Bledsoe is no good as a contending NFL starter. He is years beyond his prime, and in his prime he was only "better than average". We will never win the division with him, and have no possible chance of winning the superbowl with Bledsoe as starting QB for the Dallas Cowboys.

Start Romo now. He will screw up, sure. Who cares? Romo will just get better and better. He will improve and the man has the best instincts for football that I have seen in a Dallas QB in years. He reminds me of Joe Montana, a player the Cowboys thought too small to play pro ball.

If Romo does not start in the next game, we are dead for the season. If he starts two games from now, it will be too late. His first game will be a great game, but his second game will be very rough, I expect, as the excitement for him gives way to responsibility and new realities.

But we must transition from that proven loser Bledsoe to the current QB hope, Tony Romo. He has the instincts, the mobility to mitigate the piss poor performance of our offensive line, and a fresh body. Bledsoe is finished. After he takes a couple of hits, his brain just tanks. He is done, no better than a very good backup now.

Do not even think about his performance against the Titans last week. The Tits are a very, very bad team right now and 11 guys from this forum could at least score against them. No, Bledsoe is washed up. If Parcells keeps him as No. 1, then Parcells has simply slipped into the doddering old malaise of pre-retirement, where coaches stick with worn out, used-up players that they know from "way back", because he's familiar with the player and doesn't actually have to think anymore.

That's mine. Go Cowboys!
:star::star::star::star::star:

What can we expect from Romo--teams will go after him and hope he throws
interceptions---NO wait a mintue thats what they do now---at least Romo
can get out of the way and has a quick release
 

Zaxor

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justbob;1079623 said:
What can we expect from Romo--teams will go after him and hope he throws
interceptions---NO wait a mintue thats what they do now---at least Romo
can get out of the way and has a quick release

I really think you have the right of it my friend...opposing Defenses show no respect for Bledsoe...but if Romo could make them pay (because Bledsoe can not)...we would be well on our way..if not than we can call Romo...Bledsoe the younger and draft a QB
 

justbob

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Zaxor;1079657 said:
I really think you have the right of it my friend...opposing Defenses show no respect for Bledsoe...but if Romo could make them pay (because Bledsoe can not)...we would be well on our way..if not than we can call Romo...Bledsoe the younger and draft a QB

As you know Wisdom runs deep in the Panhandle my friend:bow:
 

Pine Needle

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It suits my purposes here. He is on the back end of the downward slope. Its a perfect analogy for this discussion.
 

marchetta

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abersonc;1079621 said:
Dude, change the title. What you are talking about has nothing to do with the Normal Distribution (Bell Curve) at all. The center of the curve is the average - you are calling it the peak. That is just wrong -- that would mean "peaking" corresponded to an average performance. The far right of the curve, where you are suggesting Drew is right now would correspond to excellent performance. Also, the curve does not measure trends as you suggest.

I was going to make the same point, but you beat me to it. However, I agree wholeheartedly with everything else he stated.
 

sbark

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If it were up to BP, we now have a youngish team with an Old Qb....

he will run the old qB into the ground, we will end up with a Older team, finally with a rookie/young QB.....

out of sync in the cycle both times....
 

Pine Needle

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marchetta;1079977 said:
I was going to make the same point, but you beat me to it. However, I agree wholeheartedly with everything else he stated.

OK. Ok. OK. - nope, won't let me edit it.
 

AbeBeta

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Pine Needle;1080003 said:
OK. Ok. OK. - nope, won't let me edit it.

Pine, please tell me you haven't had any formal statistical training.
 

Pine Needle

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Bleu Star;1080111 said:
Awesome read Pine. Thank you.

Thanks. This game really turned me sideways. We've seen pure crap for football for most of six or seven years, and its time to win.
 

Pine Needle

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abersonc;1080110 said:
Pine, please tell me you haven't had any formal statistical training.

When I miscalculated the odds of the Challenger blowing up in mid-launch, I lost my post as chief statistician for N.A.S.A. But how was I supposed to know the batteries were low?
 

LaTunaNostra

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I hope you're wrong about Bledsoe figuratively "wetting his pants".

Drew has been one of the gutsier competitors in the league for years. He will hang in the pocket way too long to try to make a play, knowing he is going to get hit if he doesn't throw it away..but he still won't give up on the opportunity to find a receiver open deep.

For all his negative habits, the ball-patting, throwing off back foot, etc.. being a wuss has never been one of them. That TD he rushed for yesterday is more evidence.

I really doubt what you saw in DB's eyes was 'fear' - more like worry, and if it it was fear I doubt even more that it was for his bodily harm, but regarding the inevitable implosion he forsaw if the blitz remained successful.

You can hang a host of flaws on Bledsoe, but gutlessness ain't one, imo.
 

slick325

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LaTunaNostra;1080184 said:
I hope you're wrong about Bledsoe figuratively "wetting his pants".

Drew has been one of the gutsier competitors in the league for years. He will hang in the pocket way too long to try to make a play, knowing he is going to get hit if he doesn't throw it away..but he still won't give up on the opportunity to find a receiver open deep.

For all his negative habits, the ball-patting, throwing off back foot, etc.. being a wuss has never been one of them. That TD he rushed for yesterday is more evidence.

I really doubt what you saw in DB's eyes was 'fear' - more like worry, and if it it was fear I doubt even more that it was for his bodily harm, but regarding the inevitable implosion he forsaw if the blitz remained successful.

You can hang a host of flaws on Bledsoe, but gutlessness ain't one, imo.

Agreed.
 

Pine Needle

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LaTunaNostra;1080184 said:
I hope you're wrong about Bledsoe figuratively "wetting his pants".

Drew has been one of the gutsier competitors in the league for years. He will hang in the pocket way too long to try to make a play, knowing he is going to get hit if he doesn't throw it away..but he still won't give up on the opportunity to find a receiver open deep.

For all his negative habits, the ball-patting, throwing off back foot, etc.. being a wuss has never been one of them. That TD he rushed for yesterday is more evidence.

I really doubt what you saw in DB's eyes was 'fear' - more like worry, and if it it was fear I doubt even more that it was for his bodily harm, but regarding the inevitable implosion he forsaw if the blitz remained successful.

You can hang a host of flaws on Bledsoe, but gutlessness ain't one, imo.

Well, I appreciate your thoughts, but I did not say he was gutless. There is a distinct difference between being a coward, and being afraid. He is a gamer, for sure, and I admire him quite a bit, but being a former golden gloves boxer, I have seen guys when they were afraid, and Bledsoe was afraid. He knew he was going to be blitzed, sacked and hammered, and it had him scared from 59:59.

The proof is his perpetual panic mode when he takes hits. The dude was running backwards, for crying our loud, in the face of the rush. He cannot even think to dump the ball off after he takes a few knocks. That's just plain old scared.

There is no shame in it, but he ought to go to Parcells and ask to start Romo against Houston, and if Romo holds his own (win or lose - Lord, don't let them lose), Romo should be the man. We have to shift gears here, or we'll never get up to speed.
 

AbeBeta

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LaTunaNostra;1080184 said:
You can hang a host of flaws on Bledsoe, but gutlessness ain't one, imo.

That we even need to argue this point seems silly. Anyone who saw Drew play last year knows this.
 
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