The Case Against Zack Martin

[IrishAnto]

The Cowboys had him rated as a 3rd round pick if not for the knee.

Indeed he was and that's why I suspect he's doing as well as he is.

 

[Gaede]

Its not about whether he's a perennial bowler. A punter could be that, and the team would still be average. What this team needs right now is an impact player, someone who can make a definitive impact on the game. At 16, in this draft, there will be probably 2 of those still on the board. Grabbing a guard when you could get someone who gets sacks or interceptions or touchdowns would be a waste of a good opportunity.

I like Martin, but I don't think he's in the upper echelon of prospects in a deep draft. We are uniquely positioned to have the last two or three of these guys at our pick

 

[CowboysLaw87]

Interesting that you're so open to taking a potential Pro Bowl WR at 16, but not a potential Pro Bowl OG or RT. I think that the infatuation with skill players is built into any franchise and fan base, they are easy to cheer for (even while you're losing), but it seems Cowboy fans suffer from it pretty acutely.

Every year I predict that at seasons end you'll hear a lot of moans about the trenches but by draft time you'll hear a lot of cheers for the skill players. I'm never wrong about that one. I can't even begin to express how big a mistake I think it'd be to draft a WR at 16.

I understand where you'e coming from, but believe me Count, I'm not some unsophisticated, fantasy football playing, drunken fan screaming to load up on WR's and other fun toys. I'm typically the last person to advocate for drafting non-point of attack players this high. I just see Evans as a special talent though. To me, I'm not saying "draft a WR," I'm saying "draft THIS WR" because of the mismatch potential and athletic traits he brings to the team individually. I'll also state that I have Evans graded higher than Barr or Donald in a vacuum, but I'd take both players over Evans for this team because of the relative lack of positional value of WR. So really for the most part I agree with your basic argument, just not to the point that I'm closed off to a special talent.

So it has nothing at all to do with being "easy to cheer for." I want wins.

 

[TheCount]

I understand where you'e coming from, but believe me Count, I'm not some unsophisticated, fantasy football playing, drunken fan screaming to load up on WR's and other fun toys. I'm typically the last person to advocate for drafting non-point of attack players this high. I just see Evans as a special talent though. To me, I'm not saying "draft a WR," I'm saying "draft THIS WR" because of the mismatch potential and athletic traits he brings to the team individually. I'll also state that I have Evans graded higher than Barr or Donald in a vacuum, but I'd take both players over Evans for this team because of the relative lack of positional value of WR. So really for the most part I agree with your basic argument, just not to the point that I'm closed off to a special talent.

So it has nothing at all to do with being "easy to cheer for." I want wins.

I wasn't saying you were, I was speaking more generally. I apologize if it came off that way. It's not even specific to this draft.

I agree that Evans is a talent. If we didn't already have Dez and Williams, I might be more open to drafting him, but I've begun to think more and more that WR's are overvalued - even the great ones.

 

[burmafrd]

I wasn't saying you were, I was speaking more generally. I apologize if it came off that way. It's not even specific to this draft.

I agree that Evans is a talent. If we didn't already have Dez and Williams, I might be more open to drafting him, but I've begun to think more and more that WR's are overvalued - even the great ones.

you look at the best WRs that have ever played and quite a few of them never got a ring; or if they did it was only one. Jerry Rice got 3 I think but he played how long? So it worked out 1 ring about every 6 years. something to think about.

 

[CowboysLaw87]

I wasn't saying you were, I was speaking more generally. I apologize if it came off that way. It's not even specific to this draft.

I agree that Evans is a talent. If we didn't already have Dez and Williams, I might be more open to drafting him, but I've begun to think more and more that WR's are overvalued - even the great ones.

Fair enough. No need to apologize, we're all here for some good discussion and debates.

In general I agree with you that WR's are overvalued. I just think that if a guy is good enough, he'll make a difference for your team, and is worthy of a high pick. This holds true as long as you're not crazily stacked at a position or have sunk way too many resources into a position already. At WR- we have a dynamic, young talent in Dez, and a 3rd round emerging talent in T-Will that is largely unproven... and I don't believe has the physicality or mental makeup to be a #1 if Dez goes down. After that, we have nobody who I want to play WR on the outside in an expanded role if Dez or T-Will go down. Basically, it's a position with talent, and we're not hurting there... but I wouldn't at all say we can't improve there, or that it would be an overkill to do so.

So if Mike Evans is the BPA at 16, I'm in.

 

[xwalker]

Indeed he was and that's why I suspect he's doing as well as he is.

So basically he his equivalent to a Cowboys mid round pick and he is playing well. That's evidence that they can be successful with OL picks that are not first rounders.

 

[Woods]

Fair enough. No need to apologize, we're all here for some good discussion and debates.

In general I agree with you that WR's are overvalued. I just think that if a guy is good enough, he'll make a difference for your team, and is worthy of a high pick. This holds true as long as you're not crazily stacked at a position or have sunk way too many resources into a position already. At WR- we have a dynamic, young talent in Dez, and a 3rd round emerging talent in T-Will that is largely unproven... and I don't believe has the physicality or mental makeup to be a #1 if Dez goes down. After that, we have nobody who I want to play WR on the outside in an expanded role if Dez or T-Will go down. Basically, it's a position with talent, and we're not hurting there... but I wouldn't at all say we can't improve there, or that it would be an overkill to do so.

So if Mike Evans is the BPA at 16, I'm in.

Agreed. I'd rather go with a real talent like Evans than "force" a pick on the DL, for example, if there is not a DL player there we really want.

That said, I think Evans will be gone by 16 too.

 

[CowboysLaw87]

Agreed. I'd rather go with a real talent like Evans than "force" a pick on the DL, for example, if there is not a DL player there we really want.

That said, I think Evans will be gone by 16 too.

Same. He'll be a top 10 pick. But I'm really just looking at the options, and after the two guys I consider home runs (Barr, Donald), I'm just not excited about the next options.

You can make a case for all of the options, but none would necessarily leave me with a feeling that we made out really well.

Mosley, Ford, Ealy, Clinton-Dix, Pryor, Jernigan, Martin, Lewan. When looking at our team needs, positional value, etc... I'm not sure any of these options represent a great value at 16. Equal value maybe.

 

[TheCount]

Fair enough. No need to apologize, we're all here for some good discussion and debates.

In general I agree with you that WR's are overvalued. I just think that if a guy is good enough, he'll make a difference for your team, and is worthy of a high pick. This holds true as long as you're not crazily stacked at a position or have sunk way too many resources into a position already. At WR- we have a dynamic, young talent in Dez, and a 3rd round emerging talent in T-Will that is largely unproven... and I don't believe has the physicality or mental makeup to be a #1 if Dez goes down. After that, we have nobody who I want to play WR on the outside in an expanded role if Dez or T-Will go down. Basically, it's a position with talent, and we're not hurting there... but I wouldn't at all say we can't improve there, or that it would be an overkill to do so.

So if Mike Evans is the BPA at 16, I'm in.

I'm definitely pro-drafting a WR in this draft, and I think it's a deep draft at the position, which makes me even less inclined to take one in the first.

There are some guys I really like in the 2nd and 3rd, like Moncrief, Martavis Bryant, Paul Richardson, Jared Abbrederis, etc. I don't think we should ignore the position, and I'd MUCH prefer a draftee to an old FA, that's for sure.

 

[CowboysLaw87]

I'm definitely pro-drafting a WR in this draft, and I think it's a deep draft at the position, which makes me even less inclined to take one in the first.

There are some guys I really like in the 2nd and 3rd, like Moncrief, Martavis Bryant, Paul Richardson, Jared Abbrederis, etc. I don't think we should ignore the position, and I'd MUCH prefer a draftee to an old FA, that's for sure.

Oh yeah, there will be some serious talent in the mid rounds at WR. Jarvis Landry would make for an awesome WR2 or WR3 for us... and can potentially be had in the 3rd, which is insane. The list goes on and on. I really like Cody Latimer from Indiana. Like Moncrief, he has the great size and athletic ability to match to have WR1 upside, and can also likely be had in the 3rd. So you raise good points about depth/value. To me Mike Evans has a chance to be one of the 7-10 most feared WR's in the league though, and I'll stand by his worthiness at 16, but I like the thought process of targeting premium value at WR in the 3rd/4th.

 

[IrishAnto]

So basically he his equivalent to a Cowboys mid round pick and he is playing well. That's evidence that they can be successful with OL picks that are not first rounders.

I consider a 3rd pick to be a day one pick (before they split the draft) and as such, especially with interior OL who nearly always drop in a draft, to be a pick that will start sooner rather than later.

As for evidence of their drafting ability, even a blind pig can find the odd truffle.

If you want to put forward Leary, I'll counter with James Marten and Robert Brewster.

 

[burmafrd]

So basically he his equivalent to a Cowboys mid round pick and he is playing well. That's evidence that they can be successful with OL picks that are not first rounders.

you really do not want to go down that road. Free and Gurode. The only two successful picks in 20 years basically that were O line and not first rd picks.

 

[IrishAnto]

you really do not want to go down that road. Free and Gurode. The only two successful picks in 20 years basically that were O line and not first rd picks.

Actually three, you forgot Flozell Adams, but your overall point is all too correct.

 

[Doc50]

I would would rate those guys as better than just having potential. I think they just need more fine tuning and will take longer to adjust the Pro level than Martin.

To me potential implies a guy like David Arkin that clearly didn't have the strength the play in the NFL.

There are some years where I see OLinemen rated as 3rd rounders that I'm not completely convinced will be NFL starters, but this year there are guys rated as 5th or 6th rounders that look better than some 3rd rounders from past drafts.

Trade chart wise, you could draft all 3 of the above listed guys for about 1/2 of the point value of taking Martin at #16. I can almost guarantee that if you drafted all 3 that at least 1 is going to be a high quality NFL starter.

And for the reasons you've stated, the FO isn't likely to draft Martin in round 1.
It's clear that value has become a bigger influence (rightfully so), and the 'Boys have a lot of spots to fill.

Besides the "impact player" mantra, Jerry won't take a non-skill position player that high unless he is elite, like Tyron Smith.
Frederick was a bit of a reach at the end of the first round, but was an extreme need (and has been a blue chip).

 

[xwalker]

And for the reasons you've stated, the FO isn't likely to draft Martin in round 1.
It's clear that value has become a bigger influence (rightfully so), and the 'Boys have a lot of spots to fill.

Besides the "impact player" mantra, Jerry won't take a non-skill position player that high unless he is elite, like Tyron Smith.
Frederick was a bit of a reach at the end of the first round, but was an extreme need (and has been a blue chip).

I agree.

I think Callahan and the Cowboys had Fred graded as very close to an elite level and quality Centers are much more difficult to obtain than Guards. Just look at how rarely a quality Center his free agency.

IMO, the only reason the draft media had Fred rated lower was due to his poor forty time. I saw on analyst that said specifically that he had Fred as a late 1st rounder but dropped him to the 3rd round soley based on the forty time.

 

[xwalker]

you really do not want to go down that road. Free and Gurode. The only two successful picks in 20 years basically that were O line and not first rd picks.

Larry Allen was a 2nd round pick exactly 20 years ago. Flozell was a 2nd round pick.

I think the best coaching job on the team last year was on the OL with Frank Pollack and Callahan. They made some subtle but highly effective changes in the OL scheme to mask the weaknesses of Doug Free and made him look like a legit NFL player.

 

[Woods]

Same. He'll be a top 10 pick. But I'm really just looking at the options, and after the two guys I consider home runs (Barr, Donald), I'm just not excited about the next options.

You can make a case for all of the options, but none would necessarily leave me with a feeling that we made out really well.

Mosley, Ford, Ealy, Clinton-Dix, Pryor, Jernigan, Martin, Lewan. When looking at our team needs, positional value, etc... I'm not sure any of these options represent a great value at 16. Equal value maybe.

That's the potential problem the Cowboys have. At 16, the guys you mentioned including Mosley, Ford, etc are all around the same value, imo. In order for us to take advantage of the siuation is for either a top guy who doesn't interest us (maybe a QB) falls and we can trade back, or a guy like Barr (for example) falls to 16 and we get lucky, or the Cowboys decide to use a 3rd or 4th rounder to trade up to 10-11 and take a top, top end player.

I don't see a trade up given the holes on the team. They need picks. I think they either have to stay and pick at 16 or pray they can trade down with a decent offer.

But the more I think of it, I don't see the Cowboys using pick 16 on a 1-tech. I think Marinelli believes he can get an effective 1-tech later in the Draft. I think they will give preference to anyone they think can rush the passer at 16, OL (for cap purposes at the very least looking to next year) and LB.

 

[burmafrd]

Larry Allen was a 2nd round pick exactly 20 years ago. Flozell was a 2nd round pick.

I think the best coaching job on the team last year was on the OL with Frank Pollack and Callahan. They made some subtle but highly effective changes in the OL scheme to mask the weaknesses of Doug Free and made him look like a legit NFL player.

OK, 4 in the last 20 but ONLY TWO in the last 15 drafts. Does that make it look any better? For whatever reason - and since the only constant in those 15 years has been Jerruh- the boys have probably been the worst at drafting O line then ANYONE ELSE in the NFL. The only guys we got that have been worth anything that we drafted in those 15 years were 2 from the 1st, 1 from the 2nd, and 1 from the 4th. And that 4th (Free) has been a yo yo. So to take ANYONE lower then the 2nd rd is to tempt KARMA as we currently ENJOY it.

 

[xwalker]

OK, 4 in the last 20 but ONLY TWO in the last 15 drafts. Does that make it look any better? For whatever reason - and since the only constant in those 15 years has been Jerruh- the boys have probably been the worst at drafting O line then ANYONE ELSE in the NFL. The only guys we got that have been worth anything that we drafted in those 15 years were 2 from the 1st, 1 from the 2nd, and 1 from the 4th. And that 4th (Free) has been a yo yo. So to take ANYONE lower then the 2nd rd is to tempt KARMA as we currently ENJOY it.

Is it OLine or have the Cowboys just not been good at drafting after the 1st or 2nd round at most positions?

Let's just say Starters drafted in the 3rd round or later in the past 10 years:

DT: Hatcher, Canty and maybe Crawford
CB: Scandrick
WR: T. Williams
LB: ?
Safety: Maybe Wilcox
TE: Witten (was that 2003?)
4-3 DE / 3-4 OLB: ?
QB: ?