The last 40 years of SBs tell us how long MM should have here

Bobhaze

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History is a good teacher when it comes to predicting when an NFL head coach has the best chance of winning a Super Bowl with a team. The last 40 years, over 95% of the time, a coach winning a Super Bowl does it within the first 5 years of being hired. Last year, Andy Reid was an outlier- he was in his 7th season.

If you look at the history of SB winning coaches since 1980, all but two of them won a SB in their first 5 years as HC. The exceptions were Bill Cowher in 2006 and Andy Reid last year. That means only 2 of the last 40 SB winning HCs won a SB after being there more than 5 years. (Belichick won his first SB in his second season at NE)

Many of us have speculated that the MM hire was a “win now” hire. I hope so. Because the thing that eventually drove me crazy about Garrett (besides his low risk, vanilla decision-making) was Jerry hanging on to him for probably 4-5 seasons past when it was reasonable to expect anything else from him.

Today’s NFL head coaches have a shorter shelf life than in the days of Tom Landry. An NFL head coach has 5 years or less to get it done. Doug Pederson won a SB in his second year. Gary Kubiak won one in his first year at Denver.

Mike McCarthy knows how to win. We still don’t know what his first year roster will look like yet, but I’m thinking he needs to win big within 3 years. Jerry won’t be as patient as he was with his hand picked stepson. And that’s not a bad thing IMO.
 
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Bobhaze

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I was saying give every starting QB and every head coach six years to show they can get it done, for the last 22 years. So it's not just head coaches it's the QB's also IMO.
I read an article a few weeks ago that said no modern NFL HC and QB should ever work together more than 5 years. I don’t know if I totally buy that but it is an interesting take. I do believe an NFL HC shoud have 3-5 years to show you what they are capable of. If they haven’t taken the team anywhere special, adios.
 

lostar2009

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2014 was JG bid for a SB. Too bad he was rob out it. We had a clear path to the SB that year. I think that's why JJ held on too long to him. He felt JG could take us there.
 

Typhus

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History is a good teacher when it comes to predicting when an NFL head coach has the best chance of winning a Super Bowl with a team. The last 40 years, over 95% of the time, a coach winning a Super Bowl does it within the first 5 years of being hired. Last year, Andy Reid was an outlier- he was in his 7th season.

If you look at the history of SB winning coaches since 1980, all but two of them won a SB in their first 5 years as HC. The exceptions were Bill Cowher in 2006 and Andy Reid last year. That means only 2 of the last 40 SB winning HCs won a SB after being there more than 5 years. (Belichick won his first SB in his second season at NE)

Many of us have speculated that the MM hire was a “win now” hire. I hope so. Because the thing that eventually drove me crazy about Garrett (besides his low risk, vanilla decision-making) was Jerry hanging on to him for probably 4-5 seasons past when it was reasonable to expect anything else from him.

Today’s NFL head coaches have a shorter shelf life than in the days of Tom Landry. An NFL head coach has 5 years or less to get it done. Doug Pederson won a SB in his second year. Gary Kubiak won one in his first year at Denver.

Mike McCarthy knows how to win. We still don’t know what his first year roster will look like yet, but I’m thinking he needs to win big within 3 years. Jerry won’t be as patient as he was with his hand picked stepson. And that’s not a bad thing IMO.
I really believe that MM took a really close look at this roster and the untouched depth and he rolled his eyes and said to himself.. "Garrett really was a blind fool."
MM called his boys and said "its time to roll guys, I found a team with a lot of untapped potential just waiting to be used properly. They even have a FB that could have been a perennial Pro Bowler if he had more than two snaps,, wasted talent by the red headed genius."
Im bitter that Jones allowed this to happen, never made a lick of sense to keep investing in developing a failure in Garrett.
Makes you wonder how many talented players that exited the league because of the blind fool, possible long term careers in this league, cut short.
 

jazzcat22

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Gailey inherited an aging team and torn apart by FA. Campo had an ok talented roster, but was strapped by Jerry and the cap. Bad trades and drafts. They never had a chance to build a SB caliber roster.
Parcells had us on the right track, then he quit on the team. Wade in. a way continued, but something happened, they seemed to quit on him. Also that was when Garret came along. Then Jerry kept that blind charade up for 10 years.

Agree with the above post, the part where 2014 was the chance but was cheated out of it.
Man was I ever so happy Seattle came back and beat GB in the NFCCG. Rodgers and the GB defense choked, but that is never talked about by the pundits. Though wait on the MM detractors to blame him.

Garrett was here too long as we all know. So now this 5 year SB time clock has been reset. Which has me more excited for this off-season, than if Garrett was still here. If he was, I doubt many of us would be on here posting as often. Well, some would be glad, as all would be even more gloom and doom. :laugh:
 

InTheZone

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If he has 5 years this means if Dak is not the guy after he's had a chance to work under MM I'd say we could end up with a new QB in 2 years. That gives M&M 3 seasons to get the team ready around the new guy.

Now of course if Dak isn't holding us back under M&M this all changes. I just don't see a QB change happening too late in this 5 year window.
 

Established1971

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History is a good teacher when it comes to predicting when an NFL head coach has the best chance of winning a Super Bowl with a team. The last 40 years, over 95% of the time, a coach winning a Super Bowl does it within the first 5 years of being hired. Last year, Andy Reid was an outlier- he was in his 7th season.

If you look at the history of SB winning coaches since 1980, all but two of them won a SB in their first 5 years as HC. The exceptions were Bill Cowher in 2006 and Andy Reid last year. That means only 2 of the last 40 SB winning HCs won a SB after being there more than 5 years. (Belichick won his first SB in his second season at NE)

Many of us have speculated that the MM hire was a “win now” hire. I hope so. Because the thing that eventually drove me crazy about Garrett (besides his low risk, vanilla decision-making) was Jerry hanging on to him for probably 4-5 seasons past when it was reasonable to expect anything else from him.

Today’s NFL head coaches have a shorter shelf life than in the days of Tom Landry. An NFL head coach has 5 years or less to get it done. Doug Pederson won a SB in his second year. Gary Kubiak won one in his first year at Denver.

Mike McCarthy knows how to win. We still don’t know what his first year roster will look like yet, but I’m thinking he needs to win big within 3 years. Jerry won’t be as patient as he was with his hand picked stepson. And that’s not a bad thing IMO.
good information but why the arbitrary stop at 1980, just go a little more and do the whole history
 

charron

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Well if you are talking history go ahead and name all the coaches who have a SB with 2 different teams.... I'll wait. Maybe that's not fair so let's include how many coaches win a SB and rebuild their team 8+ years later to win another and belechic not included.
 

Bobhaze

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Well if you are talking history go ahead and name all the coaches who have a SB with 2 different teams.... I'll wait. Maybe that's not fair so let's include how many coaches win a SB and rebuild their team 8+ years later to win another and belechic not included.
That’s a fair point. Andy Reid and the Big Tuna almost qualify because they both took two different teams to SBs, but only won with one. I’ll let you do the rest of that research.
 

Flamma

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If you look at the history of SB winning coaches since 1980, all but two of them won a SB in their first 5 years as HC. The exceptions were Bill Cowher in 2006 and Andy Reid last year. That means only 2 of the last 40 SB winning HCs won a SB after being there more than 5 years. (Belichick won his first SB in his second season at NE)

In defense of these two coaches Cowher did reach a SB in that time. Reid went to three straight championship games in that time, and finally to the SB in the 6th year. I do get your point, but just the law of averages says every good coach isn't going to reach the promised land.
 

charron

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That’s a fair point. Andy Reid and the Big Tuna almost qualify because they both took two different teams to SBs, but only won with one. I’ll let you do the rest of that research.


Atleast it shows with the right coach and front office there are guys who can build a team to compete and not just get lucky 1 year. Both of those coaches are/were great at building a team.
 

Bobhaze

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Atleast it shows with the right coach and front office there are guys who can build a team to compete and not just get lucky 1 year. Both of those coaches are/were great at building a team.
To me it also shows a “modern” trend. Most NFL organizations are not as patient as they were back in the early days of the Super Bowl era. “Win now” is what most teams expect.
 

Super_Kazuya

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Couldn't you say that if Doug Pederson can win a Super Bowl with an injury-riddled Eagles team in two years that there really isn't any reason to give a coach longer than that?
 
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