The last 40 years of SBs tell us how long MM should have here

[blueblood70]

History is a good teacher when it comes to predicting when an NFL head coach has the best chance of winning a Super Bowl with a team. The last 40 years, over 95% of the time, a coach winning a Super Bowl does it within the first 5 years of being hired. Last year, Andy Reid was an outlier- he was in his 7th season.

If you look at the history of SB winning coaches since 1980, all but two of them won a SB in their first 5 years as HC. The exceptions were Bill Cowher in 2006 and Andy Reid last year. That means only 2 of the last 40 SB winning HCs won a SB after being there more than 5 years. (Belichick won his first SB in his second season at NE)

Many of us have speculated that the MM hire was a “win now” hire. I hope so. Because the thing that eventually drove me crazy about Garrett (besides his low risk, vanilla decision-making) was Jerry hanging on to him for probably 4-5 seasons past when it was reasonable to expect anything else from him.

Today’s NFL head coaches have a shorter shelf life than in the days of Tom Landry. An NFL head coach has 5 years or less to get it done. Doug Pederson won a SB in his second year. Gary Kubiak won one in his first year at Denver.

Mike McCarthy knows how to win. We still don’t know what his first year roster will look like yet, but I’m thinking he needs to win big within 3 years. Jerry won’t be as patient as he was with his hand picked stepson. And that’s not a bad thing IMO.

3years is our window..

most likely at 4years we are dumping the contracts of EE, AC, and Dak plus maybe others..so the window is now..

 

[CowboyRoy]

I assume you're not following anything I said so lets get you on the same page. We have MM now, not JG. We have a talented roster, as Dak has always had on offense and it appears that our defense has the chance to be better, although I'm not holding my breath.

I'm projecting what Dak and this team can do with the 2020/2021 season. Dak will have had 4 years of questionable coaching and 2 years of good coaching. If it's clear Dak isn't elevating or taking advantage of the talent we have at that point we'd have to agree it's time to move on.

Why bring up romo or aikman? Dak has never not had an oline, run game, or receivers.

Because its not about Dak. Its not about Dak taking advantage or anything. QB's are important, but they are just one part of an entire team. You act like QB's have some magical powers to win SB's or whatever.

Its about building a roster that can win a championship and having a coach that can take full advantage of that talent.

Its not about Dak or any QB proving anything.

There are plenty of fans that think everything is about the QB. Its simply not the case. Not by a long shot. The game is much more complicated.

 

[lostar2009]

Murray's fumble was the play of the game. Sadly...

I tell everyone that's why they didn't keep him.

 

[Pantone282C]

Seems like we could add Andy Reid to that list too, right? Took the e-girls and chiefs.

Totally forgot about him!

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

If you need 6 years to judge a QB or coach, then you don't know what you are doing.

When you hire first time head coaches, like Jerry has a habit of doing, they'll probably need six years. Sean Payton comes to mind.

 

[CowboyRoy]

When you hire first time head coaches, like Jerry has a habit of doing, they'll probably need six years. Sean Payton comes to mind.

This thread isn't about "first time head coaches".

 

[InTheZone]

Because its not about Dak. Its not about Dak taking advantage or anything. QB's are important, but they are just one part of an entire team. You act like QB's have some magical powers to win SB's or whatever.

Its about building a roster that can win a championship and having a coach that can take full advantage of that talent.

Its not about Dak or any QB proving anything.

There are plenty of fans that think everything is about the QB. Its simply not the case. Not by a long shot. The game is much more complicated.

my point was we'll have a fair evaluation of Dak in these next 2 years. I've stated several times you can win the super bowl with any QB, doesn't that mean it's not all about Dak?

 

[Bobhaze]

When you hire first time head coaches, like Jerry has a habit of doing, they'll probably need six years. Sean Payton comes to mind.

Sean Payton didn’t take 6 years. He won his Super Bowl in his 4th year as HC of New O.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

.

Sean Payton didn’t take 6 years. He won his Super Bowl in his 4th year as HC of New O.

Thanks for the info. I didn't look that up before posting.

 

[Beaker42]

Good thread Bob!

That's not a bad thing at all.

I really wish someone could explain to me why Jerry waited so long to launch the ginger turd.

 

[Bobhaze]

I really wish someone could explain to me why Jerry waited so long to launch the ginger turd.

Here’s an attempted short answer to your question...Why did JJ wait so long to get rid of Garrett? Because he can indulge his self delusion that he knows what he’s doing as long as he chooses to believe it.

When you’re a self indulgent multi-billionaire with no one to answer to for a single decision you make, wasting whole seasons and whole careers of your best players are the results. Jerry Jones runs America’s Team like his expensive family hobby, not like a crack NFL organization with the singular goal of winning a championship.

Jerry’s foolishness is the biggest problem this team has every year.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

You are so right, no matter what the topic is someone still finds a way to begin bashing Dak. The Dak dislike is very strong with many posters on this forum.

We don't dislike Dak, we just like winning and scoring TD more than Dak....
From 13-3 his rookie year to 8-8 who knows this coming season we just might end up on track with a losing record?

 

[cowboyed]

Because its not about Dak. Its not about Dak taking advantage or anything. QB's are important, but they are just one part of an entire team. You act like QB's have some magical powers to win SB's or whatever.

Its about building a roster that can win a championship and having a coach that can take full advantage of that talent.

Its not about Dak or any QB proving anything.

There are plenty of fans that think everything is about the QB. Its simply not the case. Not by a long shot. The game is much more complicated.

True CowboyRoy. Also achieving and maintaining quality depth at key positions is a never ending challenge due to player injuries, age, free agency and the opposition. It's like trying to build a steep hill with pea gravel.

 

[StarBoyz83]

I expect to be a contender in 2-3 seasons.

 

[RS12]

I predict Jerry has made the final coaching change of his lifetime. And not because McCarthy and the team do great. I see more of a Garrett path. Continually good enough to where Jerry thinks we are a year away until Jerry doesn't have one more year.

 

[nightrain]

History is a good teacher when it comes to predicting when an NFL head coach has the best chance of winning a Super Bowl with a team. The last 40 years, over 95% of the time, a coach winning a Super Bowl does it within the first 5 years of being hired. Last year, Andy Reid was an outlier- he was in his 7th season.

If you look at the history of SB winning coaches since 1980, all but two of them won a SB in their first 5 years as HC. The exceptions were Bill Cowher in 2006 and Andy Reid last year. That means only 2 of the last 40 SB winning HCs won a SB after being there more than 5 years. (Belichick won his first SB in his second season at NE)

Many of us have speculated that the MM hire was a “win now” hire. I hope so. Because the thing that eventually drove me crazy about Garrett (besides his low risk, vanilla decision-making) was Jerry hanging on to him for probably 4-5 seasons past when it was reasonable to expect anything else from him.

Today’s NFL head coaches have a shorter shelf life than in the days of Tom Landry. An NFL head coach has 5 years or less to get it done. Doug Pederson won a SB in his second year. Gary Kubiak won one in his first year at Denver.

Mike McCarthy knows how to win. We still don’t know what his first year roster will look like yet, but I’m thinking he needs to win big within 3 years. Jerry won’t be as patient as he was with his hand picked stepson. And that’s not a bad thing IMO.

Good post as usual, Hazy. I think the one thing that will keep a HC around without winning it all (Reid a good example) is being a perennial contender. If a HC can keep the team in striking distance of the Lombardi, that is an acceptable situation.