The myth of Dak compared to reality

[CowboyRoy]

In this research i wanted to use facts to either prove the myth of Dak true or false. I will not be using the "eye" bias but instead lay out the facts. I used Pro Football reference for most of this research. Folks like to say Dak stepped into the greatest position for a rookie QB ( they say rookie because of the offense that QBs like Mahomes have but not as rookies cause they sat on the bench). I also didn't use guys like Brady because he only threw 3 passes as a rookie........only completed 1 of them so 33.3% competition haha.

First i will list these QBs that people have said are better than Dak with some of the best players on their team and than at the end give all their stats. These are rookie stats and teams only.

In this research i wanted to use facts to either prove the myth of Dak true or false. I will not be using the "eye" bias but instead lay out the facts. I used Pro Football reference for most of this research. Folks like to say Dak stepped into the greatest position for a rookie QB ( they say rookie because of the offense that QBs like Mahomes have but not as rookies cause they sat on the bench). I also didn't use guys like Brady because he only threw 3 passes as a rookie........only completed 1 of them so 33.3% competition haha.

First i will list these QBs that people have said are better than Dak with some of the best players on their team and than at the end give all their stats. These are rookie stats and teams only.


Peyton Manning QB
Had Marshall Faulk HB and Marvin Harrison WR, didn't have a terrible OL but wasn't great either.

Andy Dalton QB (Probowl as rookie)
Cedric Benson HB, A.J Green WR, Jermaine Gresham TE ( was a probowler that year and was pretty good at this time), also had a decent OL. Thats a really good situation for a rookie QB.

Matt Ryan QB
Michael Turner RB (All-pro that year), Roddy White WR (Probowl that year) and a pretty good OL although none made the probowl that year.

Andrew Luck QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Had Reggie Wayne WR and that's pretty much it.

Russell Wilson QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Marshawn Lynch RB (All-pro), Sidney Rice WR, Golden Tate WR, Doug Baldwin WR, Zach Miller TE and had a really good OL with 2 being probowlers and 1 All-pro. Safe to say Wilson had a much better team as a rookie QB, better coach and by far a better defense than Dak had as a rookie.

Cam Newton QB (Probowl as rookie)
Steve Smith WR, Greg Olson TE, Jeremy Shockey TE, DeAngelo Williams RB and a decent OL.

Ben Roethlisberger QB
Hines Ward WR, Marvel Smith OT, Alan Faneca LG (All-pro that year), Jeff Hartings C (All-pro that year) Jerome Bettis RB. Here is another case where it's pretty clear Ben had a much better team as a rookie QB. In fact this was most likely the best situation for any QB in league history. He also benefited from a great defense and Hall of Fame coaching. By the way his production decreased the next 2 years like some say about Dak but thats false as well.

Jameis Winston QB (Probowl as rookie)
Doug Martin RB (All-pro that year), Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and a pretty good OL but only 1 going to the probowl that year.

Deshaun Watson QB
Lamar Miller RB, DeAndre Hopkins WR, Will Fuller WR and had an ok OL. Only played 6 games that year because he got injured but was tearing up the league in those first 6 games.....helps having the talent he had as well.

Baker Mayfield QB
Nick Chubb RB, Duke Johnson RB, Carlos Hyde RB, Jarvis Landry WR, David Njoku TE and a really good OL. I know it's the Browns but this is really good talent on offense for a rookie QB.

Dan Marino QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Mark Duper WR, Bob Kuechenberg LG, Dwight Stephenson C, Ed Newman RG and also had 2 great backs in Tony Nathan and FB Andra Franklin. This is a really good offense for a rookie QB. Thought it would be fun to use Marino because his rookie season is a top 10 season for rookies.

Dak Prescott QB (Probowl as rookie)
Ezekiel Elliott RB (leading rusher), Jason Witten TE, Dez Bryant WR and 3 all-pro OL. This is a good situation for a rookie QB but it's not the best. OL is the strength but Dez and Witten were on the decline.




Now let's look at these QBs stats and see how they shape up against each other.

Peyton Manning 3-13 record.
56.7% completion. 3739 yards passing. 26 TDs 28 INTs. 6.5 ypa. 233 ypg. 71.2 rating. 1 game winning drive and 1--4th quarter comeback.

Ben Roethlisberger 13-0 record.
66.4% completion. 2621 yards passing. 17 TDs 11 INTs. 8.9 ypa. 187 ypg. 98.1 rating. 5 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks

Russell Wilson 11-5 record.
64.1% completion. 3118 yards passing. 26 TDs 10 INTs. 7.9 ypa. 194 ypg. 100 rating. 72.7 QBR. 4 Game winning drives. 3--4th quarter cornerback.

Andrew Luck 11-5 record.
54.1% completion. 4374 yards passing. 23 TDs 18 INTs. 7.0 ypa. 273.4 ypg. 76.5 rating. 65.6 QBR. 7 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Deshaun Watson 3-3 record.
61.8% completion. 1699 yards passing. 19 TDs 8 INTs. 8.3 ypa. 242.7 ypg. 103 rating. 83.6 QBR. 0 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Matt Ryan 11-5 record.
61.1% completion. 3440 yards passing. 16 TDs 11 INTs. 7.9 ypa. 215 ypg. 87.7 rating. 68.5 QBR. 4 game winning drives. 2--4th quarter comebacks.

Jameis Winston 6-10 record.
58.3% completion. 4042 yards passing. 22 TDs 15 INTs. 7.6 ypa. 252.6 ypg. 84.2 rating. 61.1 QBR. 3 game winning drives. 2--4th quarter comebacks.

Cam Newton 6-10 record.
60% completion. 4051 yards passing. 21 TDs 17 INTs. 7.8 ypa. 253.2 ypg. 84.5 rating. 58.1 QBR. 1 game winning drive. 1--4th quarter comeback.

Andy Dalton 9-7 record
58.1% completion. 3398 yards passing. 20 TDs 13 INTs. 6.6 ypa. 212.4 ypg. 80.4 rating. 46.9 QBR. 4 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Dan Marino 7-2 record.
58.4% completion. 2210 yards passing. 20 TDs 6 INTs. 7.5 ypa. 200.9 ypg. 96 rating. 2 game winning drives. 1--4th quarter comebacks.

Carson Wentz 7-9 record.
62.8% completion. 3782 yards passing. 16 TDs 14 INTs. 6.2 ypa. 236.4 ypg. 79.3 rating. 49.4 QBR. 1 game winning drive. 1--4th quarter comeback.

Dak Prescott 13-3 record.
67.8% completion. 3667 yards passing. 23 TDs 4 INTs. 8.0 ypa. 229.2 ypg. 104.9 rating. 78.8 QBR.
5 game winning drives. 5--4th quarter comebacks.





So as you can see Dak hasnt had the best situation as a rookie QB and beats most every rookie QB in every stat. So the myth these doubters and haters keep spewing from their mouths about Dak is just that. It's false and a blatant lie. For all the Dak supporters y'all already knew this and are ahead of the others.

Peyton Manning QB
Had Marshall Faulk HB and Marvin Harrison WR, didn't have a terrible OL but wasn't great either.

Andy Dalton QB (Probowl as rookie)
Cedric Benson HB, A.J Green WR, Jermaine Gresham TE ( was a probowler that year and was pretty good at this time), also had a decent OL. Thats a really good situation for a rookie QB.

Matt Ryan QB
Michael Turner RB (All-pro that year), Roddy White WR (Probowl that year) and a pretty good OL although none made the probowl that year.

Andrew Luck QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Had Reggie Wayne WR and that's pretty much it.

Russell Wilson QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Marshawn Lynch RB (All-pro), Sidney Rice WR, Golden Tate WR, Doug Baldwin WR, Zach Miller TE and had a really good OL with 2 being probowlers and 1 All-pro. Safe to say Wilson had a much better team as a rookie QB, better coach and by far a better defense than Dak had as a rookie.

Cam Newton QB (Probowl as rookie)
Steve Smith WR, Greg Olson TE, Jeremy Shockey TE, DeAngelo Williams RB and a decent OL.

Ben Roethlisberger QB
Hines Ward WR, Marvel Smith OT, Alan Faneca LG (All-pro that year), Jeff Hartings C (All-pro that year) Jerome Bettis RB. Here is another case where it's pretty clear Ben had a much better team as a rookie QB. In fact this was most likely the best situation for any QB in league history. He also benefited from a great defense and Hall of Fame coaching. By the way his production decreased the next 2 years like some say about Dak but thats false as well.

Jameis Winston QB (Probowl as rookie)
Doug Martin RB (All-pro that year), Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and a pretty good OL but only 1 going to the probowl that year.

Deshaun Watson QB
Lamar Miller RB, DeAndre Hopkins WR, Will Fuller WR and had an ok OL. Only played 6 games that year because he got injured but was tearing up the league in those first 6 games.....helps having the talent he had as well.

Baker Mayfield QB
Nick Chubb RB, Duke Johnson RB, Carlos Hyde RB, Jarvis Landry WR, David Njoku TE and a really good OL. I know it's the Browns but this is really good talent on offense for a rookie QB.

Dan Marino QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Mark Duper WR, Bob Kuechenberg LG, Dwight Stephenson C, Ed Newman RG and also had 2 great backs in Tony Nathan and FB Andra Franklin. This is a really good offense for a rookie QB. Thought it would be fun to use Marino because his rookie season is a top 10 season for rookies.

Dak Prescott QB (Probowl as rookie)
Ezekiel Elliott RB (leading rusher), Jason Witten TE, Dez Bryant WR and 3 all-pro OL. This is a good situation for a rookie QB but it's not the best. OL is the strength but Dez and Witten were on the decline.




Now let's look at these QBs stats and see how they shape up against each other.

Peyton Manning 3-13 record.
56.7% completion. 3739 yards passing. 26 TDs 28 INTs. 6.5 ypa. 233 ypg. 71.2 rating. 1 game winning drive and 1--4th quarter comeback.

Ben Roethlisberger 13-0 record.
66.4% completion. 2621 yards passing. 17 TDs 11 INTs. 8.9 ypa. 187 ypg. 98.1 rating. 5 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks

Russell Wilson 11-5 record.
64.1% completion. 3118 yards passing. 26 TDs 10 INTs. 7.9 ypa. 194 ypg. 100 rating. 72.7 QBR. 4 Game winning drives. 3--4th quarter cornerback.

Andrew Luck 11-5 record.
54.1% completion. 4374 yards passing. 23 TDs 18 INTs. 7.0 ypa. 273.4 ypg. 76.5 rating. 65.6 QBR. 7 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Deshaun Watson 3-3 record.
61.8% completion. 1699 yards passing. 19 TDs 8 INTs. 8.3 ypa. 242.7 ypg. 103 rating. 83.6 QBR. 0 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Matt Ryan 11-5 record.
61.1% completion. 3440 yards passing. 16 TDs 11 INTs. 7.9 ypa. 215 ypg. 87.7 rating. 68.5 QBR. 4 game winning drives. 2--4th quarter comebacks.

Jameis Winston 6-10 record.
58.3% completion. 4042 yards passing. 22 TDs 15 INTs. 7.6 ypa. 252.6 ypg. 84.2 rating. 61.1 QBR. 3 game winning drives. 2--4th quarter comebacks.

Cam Newton 6-10 record.
60% completion. 4051 yards passing. 21 TDs 17 INTs. 7.8 ypa. 253.2 ypg. 84.5 rating. 58.1 QBR. 1 game winning drive. 1--4th quarter comeback.

Andy Dalton 9-7 record
58.1% completion. 3398 yards passing. 20 TDs 13 INTs. 6.6 ypa. 212.4 ypg. 80.4 rating. 46.9 QBR. 4 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Dan Marino 7-2 record.
58.4% completion. 2210 yards passing. 20 TDs 6 INTs. 7.5 ypa. 200.9 ypg. 96 rating. 2 game winning drives. 1--4th quarter comebacks.

Carson Wentz 7-9 record.
62.8% completion. 3782 yards passing. 16 TDs 14 INTs. 6.2 ypa. 236.4 ypg. 79.3 rating. 49.4 QBR. 1 game winning drive. 1--4th quarter comeback.

Dak Prescott 13-3 record.
67.8% completion. 3667 yards passing. 23 TDs 4 INTs. 8.0 ypa. 229.2 ypg. 104.9 rating. 78.8 QBR.
5 game winning drives. 5--4th quarter comebacks.





So as you can see Dak hasnt had the best situation as a rookie QB and beats most every rookie QB in every stat. So the myth these doubters and haters keep spewing from their mouths about Dak is just that. It's false and a blatant lie. For all the Dak supporters y'all already knew this and are ahead of the others.

Dak's Oline was incredible that rookie year. There is no denying that Dak had as good a situation as you could want for a rookie. I see no point in denying that or softening that. What Dak proved his rookie year is if you put quality players around him, he can lead and play great. EVEN AS A ROOKIE.

At this point, the Dak haters have all been proven dead wrong. This year will be even more embarrassing for them.

 

[CWR]

Players are only as good as their weakest skill. Dak succeeded his rookie year in the middle of the field. Year 2 defenses clogged the middle and Dak struggled because he was inaccurate outside the hash -- instead putting that on Dak there was talk of Dez, Witten, and Beasley all declining the same year.

Dak may have finally thrown defenses out of clogging the middle with the help of Cooper. That keeps up and he'll be fine. Good enough to win with and great under mental pressure. We'll see.

I agree, I think Daks success his rookie season placed a lot of expectations on him going into year two. Clearly he struggled, and he didn't get much support either.

I was very concerned after the start of the season last year, but post Cooper Dak really won me over.

Hopefully he continues to improve. If his footwork is right he can deliver an accurate ball. As long as he puts in the work I think he will become a really good qb for us.

 

[CowboyRoy]

RGIII had a rookie breaking year as well and then never played nearly as well again. Could make an argument that is true for Dak as well, so to pull out his rookie year and not look at his following 2 years is biased in itself.

I think people that doubt Dak primarily doubt him because he is an inaccurate passer. 3rd and 10+ is always a give up screen unless it is at the end of the game. Call people haters if you want but most people see inaccurate passing as a concern, and Dak's play since his rookie year hasn't eliminated that a problem.

If you look at his 3rd and long data he has a good completion percentage but a poor 1st down success rate. That has been true since his rookie year. I saw some things towards the end of last year I hadn't seen before, mainly sideline throws in the 10-20 yard range that could keep defenses from clogging the middle. I'm still hopeful but I don't understand the hurry to pay him a ton of money. I'd like to see what year 4 brings unless they think they will have to pay even more then.

I'd say we have a 50/50 shot at being set at QB for a long time versus straddled in cap hell.

There is absolutely ZERO comparison with RG3. RG had a major injury and was NEVER the same after wards. Although both have good mobility, RG3 depended on his mobility as his biggest weapon. Once the injury kicked in and the team around him fell apart, RG3 was toast.

We are 100% set at QB and its not even a concern. If you have concerns, that's your opinion. YOu can also make up nonsense as well. It doenst make a difference. Dak is a stud and hes getting a big contract very soon. Some people it just takes longer to see quality.

What Dak needs to work on is his pocket presence. Not a big deal at all really considering he never had to do it in college.

 

[pansophy]

I agree, I think Daks success his rookie season placed a lot of expectations on him going into year two. Clearly he struggled, and he didn't get much support either.

I was very concerned after the start of the season last year, but post Cooper Dak really won me over.

Hopefully he continues to improve. If his footwork is right he can deliver an accurate ball. As long as he puts in the work I think he will become a really good qb for us.

We may have watched him turn the corner -- my hope that they see that he has turned the corner and are trying to lock him up before it gets even more expensive after a big year 4.

I just don't think it's unreasonable to have concerns about Dak. People fall back on convenient stats that make Dak look good, like completion percentage. Sure on 1st and 2nd down when play action is real and you have the league leading rusher, he can pass downfield. But if you look at clear passing down he hasn't been nearly as effective as other QBs in the league, even if his stats look okay compared to big name guys who played 5-10 years ago.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I'm sold. Dak's totally better than Dan Marino and Peyton Manning.

Dak craps on Montana!

Yeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaw!!!!!

Go Cowboyzzzz

 

[WillieBeamen]

This is idiotic

1. Youre comparing stats from different eras. Peyton Manning played in a completely different league as a rookie. Vinny Testaverde and Chris friggin Chandler were top 5 in passer rating. The number 5 passer rating was John Elway with a 93 rating. Only two QBs threw for over 4k. In 2016, 14 QBs passed for over 4k yards. A 93 passer rating wouldve ranked 14th in 2016.

2. Why did you leave RG3’s rookie season out of this bias?

3. Zeke was THE leading rusher and came in to the league as the best running back and wouldve broke dickersons record if the coach had any nads. He finished with the third most yards as a rookie in 1.5 less games. He finished with 1634 yards. Its ironic because another rookie sensation that played for the Commanders in 2012 had a rookie back that ran for 1600 yards as well (Alfred Morris ran for 1614 yards).

4. The eye test >>>> stats. Every. Day. Of. The. Week. If stats were the end all be all, why arent heisman winners and the qbs that put up the best stats in college always picked number 1?

5. You homers only use the stats that make Dak look good. He led the 20th ranked passing attack in 2016.
27th in 2017. 22nd in 2018.

5. At this point, who cares what Dak did as a rookie? It means nothing at this point.

 

[pansophy]

There is absolutely ZERO comparison with RG3. RG had a major injury and was NEVER the same after wards. Although both have good mobility, RG3 depended on his mobility as his biggest weapon. Once the injury kicked in and the team around him fell apart, RG3 was toast.

We are 100% set at QB and its not even a concern. If you have concerns, that's your opinion. YOu can also make up nonsense as well. It doenst make a difference. Dak is a stud and hes getting a big contract very soon. Some people it just takes longer to see quality.

What Dak needs to work on is his pocket presence. Not a big deal at all really considering he never had to do it in college.

RGIII Passer rating: year 1 -- 102.4; year 2 -- 82.2
Dak Passer rating: year 1 -- 104.9; year 2 -- 86.6

 

[Tangle_Foot]

Regardless of what I think about Dak why would I be concerned about a myth

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Season must be near boys!

The Dak is better than everyone threads are crankin’ up!

 

[cern]

Great qb's perform year after year. They withstand the test of time. I like dak. But want to see more before proclaiming him great after just 3 seasons. Aikman had a rough start. Few years later had 3 rings.

 

[CowboyRoy]

RGIII Passer rating: year 1 -- 102.4; year 2 -- 82.2
Dak Passer rating: year 1 -- 104.9; year 2 -- 86.6

Dak stats decreased in his 2nd year because of suspensions and injuries to key players around him.

RG3 was mostly because of injury. Once RG3 started to fade, he was such a poor leader that no one would back him. Dak kept the troops together and they rallied around him.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Great qb's perform year after year. They withstand the test of time. I like dak. But want to see more before proclaiming him great after just 3 seasons. Aikman had a rough start. Few years later had 3 rings.

Great QB's need great teams around them. Whenever Aikman had mediocre players around him he couldn't to anything. Couldn't even win a game without Emmitt. When the Oline faded, Aikman was worse than Eli.

 

[pansophy]

Dak stats decreased in his 2nd year because of suspensions and injuries to key players around him.

RG3 was mostly because of injury. Once RG3 started to fade, he was such a poor leader that no one would back him. Dak kept the troops together and they rallied around him.

Both players decreased because their best asset was taken away from them. RG3 couldn't run because of injury, as you said. The running game was still fine without Zeke for a few games, but they stopped doubling Dez and instead took away Witten and Beasley where Dak had thrown so much his rookie year. Dak couldn't throw to the outside consistently.

My hope is that at the end of last year we saw that change, but to say that people are crazy to have concerns doesn't make sense to me.

 

[GMO415]

That positive logic still won't work. Some still believe Dak isn't a franchise QB

 

[Vtwin]

The thing that never gets mentioned by Dak's defenders is the changes in the way defenses play him from year one to now. That is the single biggest factor in the overall decline in offensive production.

Defenses are happy to give him the short game and are even willing to single up on the deep ball. This allows for a nice completion percentage and decent amount of yards.

What happens inside the twenty though? How effective has Dak been at scoring touchdowns with his arm? Defenses key on Zeke and play zone in the tightened up redzone and Dak has absolutely struggled to beat that. It's there where his flaws really show up. It's there where his lack of accuracy, vision and anticipation show up in hitting those quick passes into quick windows in traffic.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Imagine what he could have done if his head coach didnt suck?

Thats another fact some don't think about

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Dak's Oline was incredible that rookie year. There is no denying that Dak had as good a situation as you could want for a rookie. I see no point in denying that or softening that. What Dak proved his rookie year is if you put quality players around him, he can lead and play great. EVEN AS A ROOKIE.

At this point, the Dak haters have all been proven dead wrong. This year will be even more embarrassing for them.

I'm not denying he had a good situation but for example look at Big Bens team and tell me Dak had a better situation.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Dak had a superb rookie year that ranks among the best. He had a downfall in his 2nd year and people wondered if he was RGIII part 2. But he stormed back to prove he wasn't a fluke in his 3rd year, and his heroic efforts yielded an 8-2 record to end the year, and the talk around him suddenly got really heavy. Now everybody in the media is talking about him like he's a main steak QB. The conversation in sports talk is currently now: "How much money does Dallas pay him?" So this heavily bashed QB is getting conversations about him be like: "How good can Dallas be with Dak?" or "Where can Dak take the Cowboys?" Underestimate him if you want, but he's beaten the entire NFC except for the Panthers and the Rams, so the trashtalking arrogance of other teams laughing off Dak makes me laugh. He'll just beat you again next year... and yes, I'm looking right at you.. Eagles fans. You guys are terrible, and deluded.

people want to say Daks second year was terrible. I agree it wasn't on his rookie season but he only threw 1 less TD and still had a winning record......pretty good for a terrible year

 

[zerofill]

He was like 26th in completed air yards... Also was like 10th for longest amount of time to throw. On average he had nearly 3 seconds.

 

[Kevinicus]

How many facepalms is this thread worth? 2? 3?

Nah, I'll go with