The only games that matter this weekend

[FLCowboyFan]

The Vikings or Cardinals winning are very likley. Would that put us in the 3rd spot?

 

[JoeyBoy718]

The Vikings or Cardinals winning are very likley. Would that put us in the 3rd spot?

I think we'd need to gain two games on SanDiego meaning we'd also need Miami and Jacksonville to win. Our best bet is just hoping that San Diego wins.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Stopped reading right there.

Whatever floats your boat. I'm thinking about the future. We can get a difference maker or our next franchise QB with a top 5 pick. Pride can take a rest this week. It's been resting all season anyway.

 

[FLCowboyFan]

went back and found an artitcle that laid out where we currently are:

As it stands today, the 4-11 Cowboys hold the fourth overall draft pick. But the final game of the season can still see the Cowboys move up or down the draft order. Here are the teams currently picking first through eighth, based on the full 16-game opponent strength of schedule:

1. TEN, 3-12 (.492)
2. CLE, 3-12 (.536)
3. SD, 4-11 (.523)
4. DAL, 4-11 (.529)
5. SF, 4-11 (.552)
6. JAC 5-10 (.471)
7. MIA, 5-10 (.475)
8. BAL, 5-10 (.506)

Continue reading...

 

[JoeyBoy718]

went back and found an artitcle that laid out where we currently are:

Yep. Good stuff. I understand the strength of schedule stuff well. Numbers like .529 might not mean much to most people, but to better understand it just count the number of wins each team we've played this season has (including games we haven't yet played). And it'll be easy to predict what happens SOS-wise next week since all Week 17 games are divisional. We played the AFC East, NFC East and NFC Soutth so we know one team will win those games and one team will lose. For example, we played the Patriots and Dolphins, and they play each other this week so it doesn't matter who wins, it'll still add a win to our opponents' collective win total. There are only two games that matter: Packers vs Vikings (since we played the Packers but not the Vikings) and Seahawks vs Cardinals (since we played the Seahawks but not the Cardinals).

The only thing I'm not too sure about is what happens when two teams have the same SOS. I've read that it comes down to division record, then a coin flip. I'm imaging the worse division record the better, in which case, we're screwed since we have 3 division wins.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

fwiw, an easier way of tracking it is just total wins. Right now, our opponents have 127 wins through week 16, San Diego's has 126. I just don't see Miami beating New England, so I think the best we can hope for is a coin flip win.

edit: Or a San Diego victory, actually think that's reasonable.

 

[percyhoward]

The only thing I'm not too sure about is what happens when two teams have the same SOS. I've read that it comes down to division record, then a coin flip. I'm imaging the worse division record the better, in which case, we're screwed since we have 3 division wins.

Division record only applies if your SOS is tied with that of another team from your division. Then it goes to conference record (would only apply to another NFC team), then the coin flip. We won a flip against the Ravens in 2014. I've been looking specifically at what it would take to get ahead of the Browns.

In order to guarantee a position ahead of Cleveland in the 2016 draft, we need the following outcomes this weekend:
Dal loss vs Was + Cle win vs Pit + Sea loss at Az + GB loss vs Min + Jets win at Buf + Titans win at Ind

Since Cleveland and Dallas are in difference conferences, a tie in SOS would result in a coin flip to determine draft position. In order to force a coin flip with the Browns, we need this to happen:
Dal loss vs Was + Cle win vs Pit + any three of the following...
Sea loss at Az
GB loss vs Min
Jets win at Buf
Titans win at Ind

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Division record only applies if your SOS is tied with that of another team from your division. Then it goes to conference record (would only apply to another NFC team), then the coin flip. We won a flip against the Ravens in 2014. I've been looking specifically at what it would take to get ahead of the Browns.

In order to guarantee a position ahead of Cleveland in the 2016 draft, we need the following outcomes this weekend:
Dal loss vs Was + Cle win vs Pit + Sea loss at Az + GB loss vs Min + Jets win at Buf + Titans win at Ind

Since Cleveland and Dallas are in difference conferences, a tie in SOS would result in a coin flip to determine draft position. In order to force a coin flip with the Browns, we need this to happen:
Dal loss vs Was + Cle win vs Pit + any three of the following...
Sea loss at Az
GB loss vs Min
Jets win at Buf
Titans win at Ind

Good stuff. Yeah, that makes sense about division/conference record only mattering if they're in the same division/conference. I know we're 1 game ahead (or fewer win) of Cleveland in the SOS category. A team can at most catch up two wins (since there are only two games that can affect SOS this week. San Diego has a game on us and we have a game on Cleveland. Tennessee is out of reach no matter what since they have 3 wins and a much lower SOS. But thanks for clearing that up about division/conference tie breakers.

 

[percyhoward]

fwiw, an easier way of tracking it is just total wins. Right now, our opponents have 127 wins through week 16, San Diego's has 126. I just don't see Miami beating New England, so I think the best we can hope for is a coin flip win.

edit: Or a San Diego victory, actually think that's reasonable.

A Charger win and a Cowboy loss puts us ahead of them. If both teams lose, here's what needs to happen to guarantee Dallas a position ahead of San Diego in the draft:

Sea loss at Az + GB loss vs Min + Jags win at Hou + Mia win vs NE

Since San Diego and Dallas are in difference conferences, a tie in SOS would result in a coin flip to determine draft position. In order to force a coin flip with the Chargers, we need this to happen in the event of a San Diego loss:
Dal loss vs Was + any three of the following...
Sea loss at Az
GB loss vs Min
Jags win at Hou
Miami win vs NE

 

[FLCowboyFan]

A Charger win and a Cowboy loss puts us ahead of them. If both teams lose, here's what needs to happen to guarantee Dallas a position ahead of San Diego in the draft:

Sea loss at Az + GB loss vs Min + Jags win at Hou + Mia win vs NE

Since San Diego and Dallas are in difference conferences, a tie in SOS would result in a coin flip to determine draft position. In order to force a coin flip with the Chargers, we need this to happen in the event of a San Diego loss:
Dal loss vs Was + any three of the following...
Sea loss at Az
GB loss vs Min
Jags win at Hou
Miami win vs NE

The last scenario is very reasonable.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Opponent wins

Cle- 128
Dal-127
SD- 126

leap frogging Cleveland would be huge

 

[robjay04]

So what exactly do we need to happen to get the highest possible pick?

 

[percyhoward]

So what exactly do we need to happen to get the highest possible pick?

The easiest way to the 2nd pick (with no coin flip) is if the teams in bold win these seven games.

Was at Dal
Pit at Cle
SD at Den
Sea at Az
NYJ at Buf
Ten at Ind
Min at GB

The above scenario puts Dallas, Tennessee, and Cleveland all at 4-12. Opponents' total wins: Titans 124, Cowboys 135, Browns 136.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

The easiest way to the 2nd pick (with no coin flip) is if the teams in bold win these seven games.
Was at Dal
Pit at Cle
SD at Den
Sea at Az
NYJ at Buf
Ten at Ind
Min at GB

The above scenario puts Dallas, Tennessee, and Cleveland all at 4-12. Opponents' total wins: Titans 124, Cowboys 135, Browns 136.

We wouldn't need all that. We have one fewer combined win than Cleveland (127 to 128) so they'd need to catch us. We'd just need to stay a game ahead. The scenario you posted would put us 3 games ahead of Cleveland in strength of schedule. We just need to remain one game ahead as we are now. If Minnesota beats Green Bay and Arizona beats Seattle we don't have anything to worry about.

 

[robjay04]

We wouldn't need all that. We have one fewer combined win than Cleveland (127 to 128) so they'd need to catch us. We'd just need to stay a game ahead. The scenario you posted would put us 3 games ahead of Cleveland in strength of schedule. We just need to remain one game ahead as we are now. If Minnesota beats Green Bay and Arizona beats Seattle we don't have anything to worry about.

So I guess the right answer is to just wait until after the games? Seems very confusing lol.

 

[percyhoward]

We wouldn't need all that. We have one fewer combined win than Cleveland (127 to 128) so they'd need to catch us. We'd just need to stay a game ahead.

By us losing to the Skins, our opponents would pick up another couple of wins -- one as our week 17 opponent and another as our week 13 opponent.

 

[percyhoward]

So I guess the right answer is to just wait until after the games? Seems very confusing lol.

It's confusing as hell, but we'd actually be punished a couple of games by losing to Washington. It adds two wins to our opponents' total that aren't there right now. Our opponents have won 127 games, and after the 6 more wins that will inevitably happen this weekend (because 12 of our opponents play each other), that total will go up to 133.

The Skins only have 8 wins, and we play them twice, which represents 16 wins of our opponents' total of 133. If they beat us, that moves them up to 9 wins, which would represent 18 of our opponents' total of 135.

Any opponent's win makes our schedule stronger, even if they win against us.

 

[mcc2121]

A long shot that is being overlooked is how the Cowboys could technically wind up with two 1st rounders.

If DAL loses and TEN, CLE and SD win, it puts the Cowboys with the second worst record -- tied with TEN and CLE. Teams with tied records rotate picks in subsequent rounds. Thus, the Cowboys would pick first in the 2nd. However, because the Patriots forfeited the 1st this year and the collective bargaining agreement says there must be 32 picks in the 1st, the Cowboys would slide up. You ask, who cares whether it's 1/32 vs. 2/1? Well, being that 1st rounders get a 5th year option, that pick becomes VERY valuable, especially for someone wanting to pick Carson Wentz.

Got all that?

 

[JoeyBoy718]

By us losing to the Skins, our opponents would pick up another couple of wins -- one as our week 17 opponent and another as our week 13 opponent.

Oh I get what you're saying. Our opponents currently have 127 and Cleveland's have 128 wins, but if we lose to Washington and Cleveland wins, we'll both have 128. In that case, we'd still need to gain a game on Cleveland or go to a coin flip.

 

[robjay04]

A long shot that is being overlooked is how the Cowboys could technically wind up with two 1st rounders.

If DAL loses and TEN, CLE and SD win, it puts the Cowboys with the second worst record -- tied with TEN and CLE. Teams with tied records rotate picks in subsequent rounds. Thus, the Cowboys would pick first in the 2nd. However, because the Patriots forfeited the 1st this year and the collective bargaining agreement says there must be 32 picks in the 1st, the Cowboys would slide up. You ask, who cares whether it's 1/32 vs. 2/1? Well, being that 1st rounders get a 5th year option, that pick becomes VERY valuable, especially for someone wanting to pick Carson Wentz.

Got all that?

But would it actually be a first round pick?

Seems to me, the logical way for the NFL to do is to just have 31 first round picks this season so a team won't benefit by the patriots cheating with a fifth year option. After all, the only real difference is the fifth year option.