The only games that matter this weekend

[percyhoward]

Oh I get what you're saying. Our opponents currently have 127 and Cleveland's have 128 wins, but if we lose to Washington and Cleveland wins, we'll both have 128. In that case, we'd still need to gain a game on Cleveland or go to a coin flip.

We'll need to gain two games, because we will have played Washington twice. The Skins' season record (including the win this weekend) would count twice.

 

[viman96]

This would be the best case scenario but not going to happen. If anything I can see Dallas winning and every team we need to win loses their game.

Lose:
Cowboys - 50/50 Cowboys win

Every team +/- 1 game of Dallas were to Win:
Browns - Pitt will hammer the Browns
Titans - Indy at home takes it
Chargers - Broncos at home pound the SD
49ers - Very possible but still think the Rams win
Jaguars - Texans win
Dolphins - Pats hammer the Dolphins
Ravens - Bengals win

 

[punchnjudy]

We'll need to gain two games, because we will have played Washington twice. The Skins' season record (including the win this weekend) would count twice.

So is it better to lose or tie?

(Could happen if both teams are trying really hard not to score lol)

 

[ufcrules1]

Division record only applies if your SOS is tied with that of another team from your division. Then it goes to conference record (would only apply to another NFC team), then the coin flip. We won a flip against the Ravens in 2014. I've been looking specifically at what it would take to get ahead of the Browns.

In order to guarantee a position ahead of Cleveland in the 2016 draft, we need the following outcomes this weekend:
Dal loss vs Was + Cle win vs Pit + Sea loss at Az + GB loss vs Min + Jets win at Buf + Titans win at Ind

Since Cleveland and Dallas are in difference conferences, a tie in SOS would result in a coin flip to determine draft position. In order to force a coin flip with the Browns, we need this to happen:
Dal loss vs Was + Cle win vs Pit + any three of the following...
Sea loss at Az
GB loss vs Min
Jets win at Buf
Titans win at Ind

In other words we aren't jumping Cleveland. More likely is they take the first QB in the draft and send us Manziel... lol

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Update:

My original post mentioned these being the games that matter (matchup, who we need to win, why).
I'll also post the current status underneath each games:

* Cowboys/Commanders --- Commanders --- A loss guarantees us at worst the 4th pick, a win gives us at worst the 8th pick
--- Dallas getting stomped. Good news!

* Browns/Steelers --- Browns --- We'd jump the Browns in draft order due to weaker strength of schedule (SOS)
--- Browns down 7-3 but marching into the redzone. Good news.

* Chargers/Broncos --- Chargers --- We'd jump the Chargers due to worse record
--- Play in the afternoon game. We'll see.

* Packers/Vikings --- Vikings --- A Packers loss would decrease our SOS and give us a chance to jump the Chargers even if the Chargers lose
--- Play in the night game. We'll see.

* Seahawks/Cardinals --- Cardinals --- A Seahawks loss would decrease our SOS and give us a chance to jump the Chargers even if the Chargers lose
--- Play in the afternoon game. We'll see.

* Dolphins/Patriots --- Dolphins --- A Dolphins win would increase the Chargers' SOS and give us a chance to jump them even if they lose
--- Tied at 3 and Fins have the ball. Good news.

* Jaguars/Texans --- Jaguars --- A Jaguars win would increase the Chargers' SOS and give us a chance to jump them even if they lose
--- Texans up 10-3 and in the redzone again. Bad news.

* Titans/Colts --- Titans --- A Titans win would increase Cleveland's SOS and likely allow us to jump them in the case that they beat the Steelers.
--- Titans lead 14-13. Good news.

* Jets/Bills --- Jets --- A Jets win would increase Cleveland's SOS and likely allow us to jump them in the case that they beat the Steelers.
--- Jets down 13-7 but on Bill's side of field. Not awful news.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Opponent wins

Cle- 128
Dal-127
SD- 126

leap frogging Cleveland would be huge

Yea, one problem with this, is if Cleveland wins, they don't gain the two opponent wins that we would when Washington beats us, so we'll be looking at a minimum of 129 wins, while they stay at 128

given that Tennessee and the Jets are losing, we will 90% pick 4th, 10% pick third, if SD pulls off the upset.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

* Browns/Steelers --- Browns --- We'd jump the Browns in draft order due to weaker strength of schedule (SOS)
--- Browns down 7-3 but marching into the redzone. Good news.

The Browns winning helps their SOS enough that we would not leap frog them. A win for them = 2 losses in the SOS department.

 

[viman96]

This would be the best case scenario but not going to happen. If anything I can see Dallas winning and every team we need to win loses their game.

Lose:
Cowboys - 50/50 Cowboys win

Every team +/- 1 game of Dallas were to Win:
Browns - Pitt will hammer the Browns
Titans - Indy at home takes it
Chargers - Broncos at home pound the SD
49ers - Very possible but still think the Rams win
Jaguars - Texans win
Dolphins - Pats hammer the Dolphins
Ravens - Bengals win

So far the Cowboys are the only team losing that we want to lose for the a better draft position

 

[Manwiththeplan]

So far the Cowboys are the only team losing that we want to lose for the a better draft position

which is the way it normally works. unless a team has something to play for, they mainly go through the motions in week 17.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

The Browns winning helps their SOS enough that we would not leap frog them. A win for them = 2 losses in the SOS department.

I know we do have a chance for as high as the #2 pick. I understand that the Browns winning helps their SOS, but I also know there's some way that we can leap them. I'm just not sure exactly how. I'll wait until these games conclude and do a recalculation.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

I know we do have a chance for as high as the #2 pick. I understand that the Browns winning helps their SOS, but I also know there's some way that we can leap them. I'm just not sure exactly how. I'll wait until these games conclude and do a recalculation.

The Jets and Titans would need to win as well as the Cardinals and Vikings (actually 3 of them would need to)

 

[JoeyBoy718]

The Jets and Titans would need to win as well as the Cardinals and Vikings (actually 3 of them would need to)

Two of those might be reality in about a half hour. I'm confident at least one of Arizona and Minnesota can win later.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Two of those might be reality in about a half hour. I'm confident at least one of Arizona and Minnesota can win later.

We need 5 things to happen in order to get the #2 pic, and one of them (CLE over PIT) looks like it doesn't have much of a chance. Getting the #3 pick at this point is more likely since Miami is up on NE.

 

[Shotgun Dave]

I know we do have a chance for as high as the #2 pick. I understand that the Browns winning helps their SOS, but I also know there's some way that we can leap them. I'm just not sure exactly how. I'll wait until these games conclude and do a recalculation.

If they lose and we lose, we cannot pick ahead of them. Unless my world is upside down. Which is possible.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

The Jets and Titans would need to win as well as the Cardinals and Vikings (actually 3 of them would need to)

Although Pittsburgh is starting to run away with it and it looks like the Browns will finish with just 3 wins, I decided to do the math anyway. Taking into consideration all the games (if the Commanders win and Steelers lose), Dallas has 135 opponent combined wins not including the final game for the Packers and Seahawks, and the Browns have 134 opponent combined wins not including the final game for the Jets and Titans. If Jets and Titans win (and Cleveland finds a way to win), we'd still need Packers and Seahawks to lose to outright jump Cleveland. If only one of them lost, it would come down to a coin flip. Looks like our chances of jumping Cleveland are very, very slim.

 

[vicjagger]

In other words we aren't jumping Cleveland. More likely is they take the first QB in the draft and send us Manziel... lol

That's not funny.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

If Dolphins hold on to win, we'll need Packers and Seahawks to lose to go to a coin flip with San Diego.

 

[JD_KaPow]

If Dolphins hold on to win, we'll need Packers and Seahawks to lose to go to a coin flip with San Diego.

Both SD and we played Miami this season (as others have said), so that game makes no difference, correct?

 

[viman96]

Cowboys need SD and SF to win

Browns 3-13
Titans 3-13
Cowboys 4-12
Chargers 4-11
49ers 4-11
Jaguars 5-11

 

[RxMan]

I think you mean win