CFZ The Proper Way to Grade a Draft

Jumbo075

Jumbo075

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Based on the players that last on rosters, elevating a draft grade because a team did a good job drafting in the later rounds doesn't make a lot of sense. There is a reason the vast majority of long-term NFL players are drafted in the top 100-150 players.

Here is how you should grade a draft:

1st round pick - should account for about 45% of a draft grade
2nd round pick - should account for about 20% of a draft grade
3rd round pick - should account for about 15% of a draft grade
4th round pick - should account for about 8% of a draft grade

So, 88% of whatever draft grade you give a team should come from the first 4 rounds of the draft. There is just a low, low probability of any players drafted in rounds 5-7 make an impact on your team. Don't beliieve me? Just look at the current starting lineup and key backups of the Cowboys team

QB - 4th round pick (Prescott)
RB - 1st round pick (Elliott) & 4th round pick (Pollard)
TE - Two (2) 4th round picks (Shultz, Ferguson)
WR - 1st round pick (Lamb), 2nd round pick (Washington) and two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallup, Tolbert)
OL - Three (3) 1st round picks (Smith, Smith, Martin), 3rd round pick (McGovern), two (2) 4th round picks (Biadasz, Ball), Undrafted (Steele)

DE - 1st round pick (Fowler), two (2) 2nd round picks (Lawrence, Williams), two (2) 3rd round picks (Basham, Gholston), two (2) 4th round picks (Watkins, Armstrong)
DT - 2nd round pick (Hill), two (2) 3rd round picks (Gallimore, Odighizuwa), 4th round pick (Urban)
LB - Two (2) 1st round picks (Van der Esch, Parsons), 4th round pick (Cox), 5th round (Clark)
CB - Two (2) 2nd round picks (Diggs, Joseph), 3rd round pick (Lewis), 6th round pick (Brown)
S - 1st round pick (Hooker), 6th round pick (Wilson), 7th round pick (Kearse)

Totals:
9 - 1st round picks
6 - 2nd round picks
8 - 3rd round picks
10 - 4th round picks

So, picks from the top 4 rounds account for 33 of the starters and key backups. Only 5 key starters or backups come from the later rounds or undrafted ranks. Face it. Rounds 5-7 are for tackling dummies to assist during practice, provide emergency injury support when needed, and play special teams.

So, when you are grading the draft, make sure not to give too much weight to the 5 players the Cowboys selected in rounds 5 & 6 this past month.
 
dsturgeon

dsturgeon

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How can you accurately compare draft grades from 2 teams with this method.

If a team has 2 1st round picks, does each pick get 22.5 % of the 1st round grade. If they pick one good player and one horrible, that would average out to a bad 1st round pick grade percentage, and would not compare to a team with one 1st round pick that is good
 
Corso

Corso

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How to properly grade a Draft:
Is your 1st rounder a starter and looking like he could be a real player? Good
Is your 2nd rounder also a starter with potential? Very good.
You get a starter, or three from the rest of the Draft with some potentials from others? You nailed it.
 
Jumbo075

Jumbo075

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dsturgeon said:
How can you accurately compare draft grades from 2 teams with this method.

If a team has 2 1st round picks, does each pick get 22.5 % of the 1st round grade. If they pick one good player and one horrible, that would average out to a bad 1st round pick grade percentage, and would not compare to a team with one 1st round pick that is good
Click to expand...

You decide. My point is that only about 1/8 starters and key backup players come after round 4. The other 7 out of 8 players come from the top 4 rounds. This is true across the NFL, not just for the Cowboys. Teams NEED the younger players from the later rounds and free agency to fill out the roster and be cannon fodder in practice for the other players - much like the movie Rudy. They do have value to the team, but that value isn't usually on game day. It's during the week while the team is practicing.
 
G2

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Jumbo075 said:
You decide. My point is that only about 1/8 starters and key backup players come after round 4. The other 7 out of 8 players come from the top 4 rounds. This is true across the NFL, not just for the Cowboys. Teams NEED the younger players from the later rounds and free agency to fill out the roster and be cannon fodder in practice for the other players - much like the movie Rudy. They do have value to the team, but that value isn't usually on game day. It's during the week while the team is practicing.
Click to expand...
If that were true, I would trade my 5,6,7 rounders to move up and get filler UDFAs
 
Corso

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G2 said:
If that were true, I would trade my 5,6,7 rounders to move up and get filler UDFAs
Click to expand...
I would like to see a team adopt this philosophy just to see how that works out.

Would take years to witness the true ramifications, but I'm a patient man.
 
dsturgeon

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Corso said:
I would like to see a team adopt this philosophy just to see how that works out.

Would take years to witness the true ramifications, but I'm a patient man.
Click to expand...

it would work out to bad special teams
 
Corso

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G2 said:
The thing is, teams do hit on those rounds occasionally I dunno.
Click to expand...
True. I wonder the percentage vs trading up as far as players that end up keeping.
 
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G2

G2

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Corso said:
True. I wonder the percentage vs trading up as far as players that end up keeping.
Click to expand...
To be fair and looking at our draft history, it's not as often as I thought.
 
Cowpolk

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Wait 2-3 years then evaluate unless a player is an immediate improvement like Parsons was. Those are nice finds
 
G2

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I wonder. If you did move up with your late rounders, you're not wasting the pick on a project in a year or more, Not reaching for potential or a player rehabbing and you can fill roster needs and depth in UDFA cheaper and more conservative.
 
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