Discussion in 'Coronavirus Zone' started by iceberg, Jul 16, 2020.
this is why it gets so frustrating. no one believes the #'s and the #'s drive everything we do.
It's frustrating because people don't understand what was done and post nonsense like what Eagar posted without clarification. And then people get riled up and start sprouting conspiracy theories.
Nevermind that fact that 3400 cases, is maybe 3-4% of all the cases diagnosed cases in the last 14 days. Hardly a dent.
it's frustrating because we've NEVER had issues before counting infections. yet for this one, no one can simply say:
Infected: Yes | NO
and leave it at that.
I guess Texas was counting positive antigen tests as "probable" positive COVID-19 tests (makes sense since antigen tests check if a person has had the virus).
If I'm reading this right:
- nucleic acid based tests, like PCR tests look for genetic material of the virus.
- antigen tests look proteins or glycans like those on the surface of the virus.
If it detects the presence of virus antibodies then I can see why it's considered a "probable" and really could be categorized as "recovered"
I dunno, I'm just a meathead English major though. Please, smarter folks, can you make better sense of this?
My state lists both and will retroactively change the classification if laboratory testing is performed. I imagine this is the same for most states .
Hopefully most states do this. This is from “worldometer” today, who publishes cases, and deaths per day charts, this is from their national chart today.
“NOTE: Texas: Bexar County reported 5,501 cases today, 691 of which represent new cases, while 4,810 were backlogged, the result of "kinks in the communication process with the state, and that cases have been underreported in the past two weeks" according to reports citing San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg. Some of the 21 reported deaths were also backlogged [source] Worldometer has redistributed the 4,810 backlogged cases over the previous 14 days based on the existing pattern of Bexar County”
The point is they don’t just add or subtract all backlogged cases or deaths to a single day.
This is a huge issue. Giving idiots a platform to spout off nonsense that encourages more idiots to spout off a derivative of the nonsense spouted off, in turn causing a movement of idiots to spout off wild conspiracy theory.
My understanding of antigen tests is they detect an active infection not a recovered. The benefits are they are usually cheaper and provide faster results. The downside is they are not as reliable as the PCR test.
what is even more frustrating and a *huge issue* to me is that we can't talk about the issues we all in fact are facing TOGETHER, whether we like it or not. we attack other mindsets without cause nor concern - we just disagree so they must be idiots.
the fact remains that the counts are a huge issue and never in our history before have they been. you either test positive or you don't. this "probable" is NOT a YES and if you wish to create a PROBABLY category then do so and count them separately and figure out what to do with them later.
counting the way they have been and changing how they decide to count so many times brings the doubt upon themselves.
I can't speak for Texas (or even my state as I don't know if they even are using antigen testing) as to why they do not include them. They do get reported to the CDC and are included in those numbers from what I read.
what i don't think i will ever understand at a logical (political and emotional, sure) level is it's simple.
Positive Test = YES | NO
count the YES's and NO's and we're done.
if you MUST count "probable" fine - but do NOT include them in YES because that is wrong and taints the data.
So if we had 60000 = yes and 80000 = probably then we can say we have 140k probable to yes and know what we're talking about. but when they don't test people and use vague symptoms to say YES - that is wrong.
and that will cause people to question your methodology every time. after that they question motives and this is where things get "fun".
then again - create another category for which to put these results and we figure out how to count them all later when we know more.
but that isn't what we are doing.
I agree. A positive test should be counted as a yes. What I have read is the antigen test is less reliable in that it may produce more false negatives. But that just confuses the situation as to why you would not include the positive results from those tests.
The issue here is the practice of creating uncertainty through misreporting. This is very simple. If you want people to trust what you are telling them, you want them to have confidence in policy, things like wearing masks etc., then stop screwing things like this up and stop using it to create hyperbole.
Or don't and understand that you are never going to get those folks on board with how you want them to behave in this pandemic.
then classify them separately and note the inconclusive nature. to simply say COUNT THEM is either a panic move, just stupid and not thinking (not uncommon these days) or then yes, trying to "cook the books". so even if they are doing it for "good" reasons, it's still being done and that gives way to all the drama around it.
given how much "intentional damage" groups out there seem hellbent on causing, yes. i have to wonder if some groups are doing it on purpose for the fear factor. collin county had a public city council meeting where they said if you came in contact with someone who had tested positive, you now count as positive. What i have no idea on this one is how they KNOW someone got close enough to simply slide over.
but the fact they stated this is, in my mind, a huge cause for concern and valid reason to doubt the numbers.
ba-bamb. the cliff note version. >g<
All we are ever going to have is estimates. Even after all is said and done...we'll still be left with estimates.
I'm just doing my part to slow the spread...washing my hands often, stay six feet where possible and wearing a mask. We just have to slow the spread and wait more a vaccine. So the numbers being wrong or right changes nothing.
How are things on the ground in Texas? I live in Europe and we're getting news reports similar to what we saw earlier in NY and northern Italy.