AzorAhai
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But Rodgers, is also one in a million... First you have to get a projected top 10 QB to slip that far, which isn't all that uncommon, but to have that player end up being as good as Aaron Rodgers, that's practically one in a million... Rodgers just isn't a good example, he's one of the greatest QB's ever to play... Manziel is a better example of a QB who fell on draft day, and his perceived value was good... Brady Quinn is another...
I don't mind trying to find the next Tom Brady in the 6th, or perhaps even the next Russell Wilson in the 3rd, but there's really no circumstance where I would want to spend a 1st or probably even a 2nd any time soon on a QB.
When you look at the QB's drafted year by year, you see how rare it is to even find a QB who is a legit starter, and it's almost impossible to find a QB who is special like a Romo or a Rodgers... And half of the good to really good QB's, they were taken #1 overall, and I (thankfully) don't see us getting anywhere near the #1 pick anytime soon...
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/QB-1980-now.htm
Comparing Rodgers fall to Manziels is simply not identical. Rodgers was supposed to be in serious consideration for the 1st pick. His fall was extremely out of the ordinary. I don't really care what he turned in to, more to the fact that a top 3 talent in a draft inexplicably fell that far to begin with. To compare it to recent years, it would be like Clowney falling to the 20's, or Luck falling to the 20's. It just doesn't happen very frequently. If a top 5 talent were to fall like that, I would have no problems with the pick regardless of how it turned out 5 years later. Manziel was never rated that high and many didn't even think he was a 1st Rd worthy QB.
The sheer talent gap between the tiers of players is just too great with a fall like that at that point to pass up. For this year, I think that player is Goff. I think he is the best QB prospect since the Luck draft and he goes very early, top pick possibly. If for some reason he doesn't, take him and don't look back. The reason Rodgers is a perfect example is not because of what he became, but because of what he was projected to be before the draft.