xwalker
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Nice try, but that doesn't wash. Rodgers' fall in the draft wasn't out of the ordinary or inexplicable. It's very explicable - 32 organizations completely whiffed on how good this guy was. Even the Packers. Because if any team had any clue, they certainly would have been willing to move to the middle of the first round to get him. The saw him throw, they saw him run, they knew everything about him...and they passed on the guy. He was not in serious consideration for the first pick. If he was, he would have been the second, or third, or fourth pick. Yes, it does happen frequently - look at the highest rated passers today - Brady, Rodgers, Romo, Wilson - heck, even guys like Roethlisberger certainly went later than they should have, given how good they are today. And there are probably even more examples of guys who were supposed to be can't miss who were total disasters. The QB position is the highest paid and most valuable...and it's the most inexact in terms of finding true quality. It's just very hard to measure some of the things that really matter when it comes to great QB play. At least, it has been up to this point. I think some of the new technologies today, including some virtual reality setups, could probably do a much better job of identifying who will truly be good at the next level, but that's for another day. And even that might not matter because virtual reality could never mirror true reality in the sense that these guys wouldn't be getting crushed by 300 lbs. linemen in virtual reality scenarios. They would know they're not in any real danger. That changes things.
If a team could see into the future and know that a QB would be as good as Rodgers but the stipulation is that they have to keep that QB as a backup for 3 yeas and he can't be the starter until year 4, then where would that player be drafted?
Would teams use the #1 overall pick on a QB that won't start until his 4th season?
I think some top 10 QBs that failed would likely have succeed if they had been able to stay on the bench and not have the pressure to be the starter until their 4th season.