Not sure of the timing, just that it's based on the number of free agents we sign vs. the number we lose, and if a free agent we lose signs a big money contract, per formula, we could get as much as a 3rd round pick
Yes, but he wouldn't potentially exit until next year so it would only make sense that next offseason's movement determines if the team gets a pick. Free agency continues beyond the draft so current year picks can't be awarded until all movement is done.
Also, the formula apparently doesn't apply to all players lost or sign for whatever reason. Nobody knows all the details but aspects are known. Given that it factors money, playing time, and postseason honors it's possible that a lack of playing time could be a disqualifier.
Suspension is expected so any injury that cuts his snaps enough may exclude him from pick assignment. At the bare minimum it would drop his assignment within a round because his salary is tied to playing time so he takes a hit in 2 areas for missed playing time. Money is suspected to be the biggest determinant factor, but I don't think anyone knows for sure if a player must meet playing levels to qualify.
Basically, Dallas needs a net loss of 1 next year if Hardy leaves, and they can't have a player they will gain who gets assigned to the same round that Hardy does because the highest slotted remaining compensatory pick is negated first. If a team loses a monster player and is awarded top compensatory pick, it would be cancelled out by a player they signed if that player were to just barely cross the threshold for 3rd round assignment.
Another aspect in play is that Hardy projects to cancel out Murray for this offseason. Essentially, the team deferred a pick they would have had in 2016 had they not signed Hardy to a pick they could potentially have in 2017 if Hardy leaves and Dallas signs nobody to counter his loss.
Not really any sort of genius because it's doubtful a possible 3rd round pick in 2017 is any more valued than a likely 3rd round pick in 2016. Inconsequential happenstance. If they get a pick for him, it will be the one they lost when they signed him.
I'd say it's unlikely the team even considered this aspect to any significant extent, if at all. With all the uncertainty in future years, it seems like wasted effort to invest time considering whether or not you want an extra pick at the end of the 3rd round to be in next year's draft, or the draft after next year's draft.
