Eskimo;5018381 said:
Wulf, given there is a deep draft at OG, Safety and DT where we have big needs, what do you think the chances are of us dropping back from the first round slot and trying to get 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. This would be predicated on finding a willing trading partner but where we are in the draft is usually around where the last true first round grade players run out and that usually makes some team anxious to jump up and grab that player if he fills a position of need for them.
I think we should have done that last year and the failure to do so (we actually did the opposite) has left the roster dreadfully thin in a number of spots. We also suffer from a lack of cap space due to poor decisions regarding past contracts (Sensy, Rat, Free, Miles), Romo being on the last year of his deal and the franchise tag on Spencer. IMO, we need to go cheap and that means using the draft to fill out the roster rather than FA.
So given that, do you think we are likely to trade down (assuming a gift like D. Moore, S. Richardson or Star isn't still on our board).
It all depends on how the first 17 picks go, Eskimo. There is almost always at least one slider, and guards historically don't go anywhere near as high as they are ranked. A lot of people had Iupati ranked in the top 10 a few years back, but he didn't go that high. Last year, many had DeCastro that high or even higher, and he fell even further. So the likelihood of one of those two guards being available at #18 is pretty good. Having said that, I'm not sure the Cowboys take one in the first round even if one of those two is available. I would, mind you, but I'm not sure they will.
I think there's a pretty good chance that Richardson, Vacarro, or one of the guards will be available when the Cowboys go on the clock, and if they are, I take one of them and don't look back.
As for a trade down, a lot will depend on how far back we're talking about and what they anticipate will be available at the new spot. After all, we've learned the hard way that trading back just to get more picks is not the best way to go about it. If you're talking about dropping back 4 or 5 spots to pick up a second or third rounder, it's likely because one of the sliders is very appealing to a team with minimal needs.
An interesting possibility is the situation San Francisco is in. They don't have very many needs at all, and will likely have 15 draft picks after trading Alex Smith and getting compensatory picks. If there's something in particular that they want to go get--say a playmaker like Tavon Austin--and don't think he's going to be available, they could package their 1st (#31 overall), the 2nd they'll get from KC (# 34 overall), and the 3rd they got from Carolina (#74 overall) for our 1st (#18) and 2nd (#47). The deal would be slightly better for the Cowboys, but SF would only really be giving up one pick, so it might be something they'd do.
I don't trade out of the first round without getting, at a minimum, a high 2nd round pick this year and next year's 1st rounder...and it might take more than that. For example, let's say that Buffalo wants to jump back into the 1st round to take a QB. They could conceivably wait and get the player in the 2nd, but it's a gamble, and the new collective bargaining agreement gives teams a 5th year on the rookie contract for 1st round picks. So let's say they do it. When we traded out of the 1st round with them in 2004, they were only moving up to pick #22, and they traded us their 2nd rounder (#43) and 5th rounder (#144) in addition to their 1st rounder in 2005. If they wanted to come up to #18 this year, I would take nothing less than their 2nd (#41) and their 4th (currently pick #102, although it will change with compensatory picks) in addition to next year's 1st rounder.
One thing I have learned...don't be surprised by anything.
