Things to keep in mind for playoff scenarios

[Reality]

I know the general thinking is that winning the division is the easiest way for the Cowboys to get into the playoffs, and technically that is true, but I have a different perspective on it.

The Eagles have 5 games remaining, but 3 of them are against the Raiders and Commanders TWICE. The other two are against the Bills and Chargers (their next game), but the Chargers' QB Justin Herbert fractured his hand in their last game and had surgery on it. He says he plans to play but no idea what impact it might have on his performance and that's if he gets cleared to play.

Now, the current wild card teams all won last week, but the good news is the Rams lost. By losing, the Rams fell back into the mix with the Seahawks and 49ers for winning the division. They also fell back into the mix for the number one seed with the other NFC West teams as well as the Bears.

So, why is all of that good news? That means all of those teams will be playing to win hopefully through game 17. We always think about how the bad teams may not play to win late in the season, but there have been several games the last few years where even playoff bound teams rested their star players because they had no way to improve their playoff seeding.

With all of those wildcard teams and outside-the-bubble-but-close teams near each other in the standings, it increases the odds that every game those teams play will matter to them so they will be playing to win.

This is important because ALL of them are playing several games against current teams in the playoff hunt ..

• Bears -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Packers TWICE, 49ers and Lions
• Packers -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Bears TWICE , Broncos (fighting for #1 seed in AFC) and Ravens
• Seahawks -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Colts, Rams, Panthers and 49ers
• Lions -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Cowboys, Rams, Steelers and Bears
• 49ers -- (3 games against playoff contenders) -- Colts, Bears and Seahawks
• Panthers -- (3 games against playoff contenders) -- Buccaneers TWICE and Seahawks
• Rams -- (2 games against playoff contenders) -- Packers and Seahawks
• Eagles -- (2 games against playoff contenders) -- Chargers (QB hurt, may play) and Bills
• Cowboys -- (2 games against playoff contenders) -- Lions and Chargers

The Eagles will need to lose both of the games against playoff contenders and/or possibly get upset by a bad Raiders team or an injured Commanders team for the Cowboys to overtake them.

The wildcard on the other hand presents more possibilities because all 4 teams currently ahead of the Cowboys for the 3 wildcard spots play 3-4 games each against other playoff contending teams.

That includes the Bears playing 4 NFC contenders, the Seahawks playing 3 NFC contenders, the Lions playing 3 NFC contenders, the 49ers playing 2 NFC contenders, the Panthers playing 3 NFC contenders, the Packers playing 2 NFC contenders and the Cowboys playing 1 NFC contender.

That means there are going to be several losses by NFC teams in playoff contention.

What it will come down to is how spread out the losses are amongst the teams and whether the Cowboys can win every remaining game they have.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Wow, excellent post and crucial information @Reality !!! Thank you for your hard work and information. Everyone needs to read this. So self explanatory!

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Commanders no longer look like an easy out playing like they did against Broncos. Eagles better be careful.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

The Eagles will need to lose both of the games against playoff contenders and/or possibly get upset by a bad Raiders team or an injured Commanders team for the Cowboys to overtake them.

IMO this is overlooking two desperate teams led by former Super Bowl coaches. The Commanders could have Daniels back.......so I wouldn't rubber-stamp these games as wins for the Eagles. Yes, they would be favored but it would not surprise me at all to see them lose 3 of 5.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Commanders no longer look like an easy out playing like they did against Broncos. Eagles better be careful.

Just posted the same thing.........not to mention Daniel should be back and Quinn is starting to hear whispers. I fully expect the Eagles to split one game with them.

 

[Smith22]

Bottom line:

Win out and I think they find their way in.

As good as the team is playing, i think this will be a tough task and they fall 1 game short at 10 wins, barely missing the post season. I hope I am wrong.

 

[Kwyn]

Found this.

Shows the range of change for each team depending on a win or loss

It’s a nice chart although it certainly does put in stark terms our current situation.

 

[Hawkeye19]

Commanders no longer look like an easy out playing like they did against Broncos. Eagles better be careful.

Exactly. And Daniels coming back will provide a spark.

We can’t take anyone lightly either. Wash and NY will be looking to play the spoiler at the end of the year, and they have been in some close, hard fought losses

We need to focus on our own business each week and everything will sort itself out

 

[RodeoJake]

I know the general thinking is that winning the division is the easiest way for the Cowboys to get into the playoffs, and technically that is true, but I have a different perspective on it.

The Eagles have 5 games remaining, but 3 of them are against the Raiders and Commanders TWICE. The other two are against the Bills and Chargers (their next game), but the Chargers' QB Justin Herbert fractured his hand in their last game and had surgery on it. He says he plans to play but no idea what impact it might have on his performance and that's if he gets cleared to play.

Now, the current wild card teams all won last week, but the good news is the Rams lost. By losing, the Rams fell back into the mix with the Seahawks and 49ers for winning the division. They also fell back into the mix for the number one seed with the other NFC West teams as well as the Bears.

So, why is all of that good news? That means all of those teams will be playing to win hopefully through game 17. We always think about how the bad teams may not play to win late in the season, but there have been several games the last few years where even playoff bound teams rested their star players because they had no way to improve their playoff seeding.

With all of those wildcard teams and outside-the-bubble-but-close teams near each other in the standings, it increases the odds that every game those teams play will matter to them so they will be playing to win.

This is important because ALL of them are playing several games against current teams in the playoff hunt ..

• Bears -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Packers TWICE, 49ers and Lions
• Packers -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Bears TWICE , Broncos (fighting for #1 seed in AFC) and Ravens
• Seahawks -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Colts, Rams, Panthers and 49ers
• Lions -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Cowboys, Rams, Steelers and Bears
• 49ers -- (3 games against playoff contenders) -- Colts, Bears and Seahawks
• Panthers -- (3 games against playoff contenders) -- Buccaneers TWICE and Seahawks
• Rams -- (2 games against playoff contenders) -- Packers and Seahawks
• Eagles -- (2 games against playoff contenters) -- Chargers (QB hurt, may play) and Bills
• Cowboys -- (2 games against playoff contenters) -- Lions and Chargers

The Eagles will need to lose both of the games against playoff contenders and/or possibly get upset by a bad Raiders team or an injured Commanders team for the Cowboys to overtake them.

The wildcard on the other hand presents more possibilities because all 4 teams currently ahead of the Cowboys for the 3 wildcard spots play 3-4 games each against other playoff contending teams.

That includes the Bears playing 4 NFC contenders, the Seahawks playing 3 NFC contenders, the Lions playing 3 NFC contenders, the 49ers playing 2 NFC contenders, the Panthers playing 3 NFC contenders, the Packers playing 2 NFC contenders and the Cowboys playing 1 NFC contender.

That means there are going to be several losses by NFC teams in playoff contention.

What it will come down to is how spread out the losses are amongst the teams and whether the Cowboys can win every remaining game they have.

It's a daunting task for the Cowboys to make the playoffs, but to quote Yogi, "it ain't over til it's over"

 

[Cowboyny]

Washington is the team to watch, but also the Packers. If the Bears beat them this week, we are just one game behind them and they have a tough schedule to finish.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Just posted the same thing.........not to mention Daniel should be back and Quinn is starting to hear whispers. I fully expect the Eagles to split one game with them.

Yep. They are playing to win that game and I’m not saying they will but two divisional games that late in the season can be tricky.

 

[morasp]

Our playoffs have already started. Tomorrow night is Very important.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Washington is the team to watch, but also the Packers. If the Bears beat them this week, we are just one game behind them and they have a tough schedule to finish.

Yeah i sort of assume Bears are gonna lose 3 more. Maybe that’s unfair to them but man I can’t see them making it out of that alive.

 

[Cowboyny]

Yeah i sort of assume Bears are gonna lose 3 more. Maybe that’s unfair to them but man I can’t see them making it out of that alive.

They beat up the Eagles last week in Philly, think they are better then what we think.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

They beat up the Eagles last week in Philly, think they are better then what we think.

I agree. But it’s how they beat Philly. They ran it every play. Weather conditions were in effect so I get it but I don’t know I think I am underrating them. Sweeping the Lions and Packers and beating 49ers? That seems far fetched but I guess if they do that where does that leave the Packers and Lions at that point.

 

[charron]

Just win this week. That's all they can do right now.

 

[Diehardblues]

No doubt getting in as WC is most likely scenario. The WC teams in front of us schedules are much tougher and in many cases playing each other.

 

[Rockport]

I know the general thinking is that winning the division is the easiest way for the Cowboys to get into the playoffs, and technically that is true, but I have a different perspective on it.

The Eagles have 5 games remaining, but 3 of them are against the Raiders and Commanders TWICE. The other two are against the Bills and Chargers (their next game), but the Chargers' QB Justin Herbert fractured his hand in their last game and had surgery on it. He says he plans to play but no idea what impact it might have on his performance and that's if he gets cleared to play.

Now, the current wild card teams all won last week, but the good news is the Rams lost. By losing, the Rams fell back into the mix with the Seahawks and 49ers for winning the division. They also fell back into the mix for the number one seed with the other NFC West teams as well as the Bears.

So, why is all of that good news? That means all of those teams will be playing to win hopefully through game 17. We always think about how the bad teams may not play to win late in the season, but there have been several games the last few years where even playoff bound teams rested their star players because they had no way to improve their playoff seeding.

With all of those wildcard teams and outside-the-bubble-but-close teams near each other in the standings, it increases the odds that every game those teams play will matter to them so they will be playing to win.

This is important because ALL of them are playing several games against current teams in the playoff hunt ..

• Bears -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Packers TWICE, 49ers and Lions
• Packers -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Bears TWICE , Broncos (fighting for #1 seed in AFC) and Ravens
• Seahawks -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Colts, Rams, Panthers and 49ers
• Lions -- (4 games against playoff contenders) -- Cowboys, Rams, Steelers and Bears
• 49ers -- (3 games against playoff contenders) -- Colts, Bears and Seahawks
• Panthers -- (3 games against playoff contenders) -- Buccaneers TWICE and Seahawks
• Rams -- (2 games against playoff contenders) -- Packers and Seahawks
• Eagles -- (2 games against playoff contenters) -- Chargers (QB hurt, may play) and Bills
• Cowboys -- (2 games against playoff contenters) -- Lions and Chargers

The Eagles will need to lose both of the games against playoff contenders and/or possibly get upset by a bad Raiders team or an injured Commanders team for the Cowboys to overtake them.

The wildcard on the other hand presents more possibilities because all 4 teams currently ahead of the Cowboys for the 3 wildcard spots play 3-4 games each against other playoff contending teams.

That includes the Bears playing 4 NFC contenders, the Seahawks playing 3 NFC contenders, the Lions playing 3 NFC contenders, the 49ers playing 2 NFC contenders, the Panthers playing 3 NFC contenders, the Packers playing 2 NFC contenders and the Cowboys playing 1 NFC contender.

That means there are going to be several losses by NFC teams in playoff contention.

What it will come down to is how spread out the losses are amongst the teams and whether the Cowboys can win every remaining game they have.

Please post more often.

 

[JBS]

The Denver broncos just went to OT and barely beat the Commanders. There are no guaranteed wins in this league. Not for our competitors and not for us either. If you guys are circling wins for us or our competitors vs the commanders or the giants, you would be wrong.

 

[DallasEast]

This is just a playoff scenario using the ESPN Playoff Machine (link) with the following hypothetical conditions:

• Dallas wins out
• A Current Week 13 Higher AFC Seed beats a Current Week 13 Lower NFC Seed*
• A Current Week 13 Higher NFC Seed beats a Current Week 13 Lower AFC Seed**
• Same Seeded for Current Week 13 AFC and NFC Teams tie***

b = currently on the bubble
e = eliminated as of Week 14

Current Seed​	Team​	Week 14​	Week 15​	Week 16​	Week 17​	Week 18​
1​	Bears​	Win (Packers)​	Win (**Browns)​	Win (Packers)​	Win (49ers)​	Win (Lions)​
2​	Rams​	Win (Cardinals)​	Win (Lions)​	Win (Seahawks)​	Win (Falcons)​	Win (Cardinals)​
3​	Eagles​	Win (Chargers)​	Win (**Raiders)​	Win (Commanders)​	Win (**Bills)​	Win (Commanders)​
4​	Buccaneers​	Win (Saints)​	Win (Falcons)​	Win (Panthers)​	Win (**Dolphins)​	Win (Panthers)​
5​	Seahawks​	Win (Falcons)​	Win (**Colts)​	Loss (Rams)​	Win (Panthers)​	Win (49ers)​
6​	Packers​	Loss (Bears)​	Loss (*Broncos)​	Loss (Bears)​	Loss (*Ravens)​	Win (Vikings)​
7​	49ers​	Bye​	Win (**Titans)​	Loss (*Colts)​	Loss (Bears)​	Loss (Seahawks)​
8b​	Lions​	Loss (Cowboys)​	Loss (Rams)​	Win (**Steelers)​	Win (Vikings)​	Loss (Bears)​
9b​	Cowboys​	Win (Lions)​	Win (Vikings)​	Win (Chargers)​	Win (Commanders)​	Win (Giants)​
10b​	Panthers​	Bye​	Win (Saints)​	Loss (Buccaneers)​	Loss (Seahawks)​	Loss (Buccaneers)​
11b​	Falcons​	Loss (Seahawks)​	Loss (Buccaneers)​	Win (Cardinals)​	Loss (Rams)​	Win (Saints)​
12b​	Vikings​	Win (Commanders)​	Loss (Cowboys)​	Win (Giants)​	Loss (Lions)​	Loss (Packers)​
13e​	Commanders​	Loss (Vikings)​	Win (Giants)​	Loss (Eagles)​	Loss (Cowboys)​	Loss (Eagles)​
14b​	Cardinals​	Loss (Rams)​	Loss (*Texans)​	Loss (Falcons)​	Loss (*Bengals)​	Loss (Rams)​
15e​	Saints​	Loss (Buccaneers)​	Loss (Panthers)​	Loss (*Jets)​	Tie (***Titans)​	Loss (Falcons)​
16e​	Giants​	Bye​	Loss (Commanders)​	Loss (Vikings)​	Loss (*Raiders)​	Loss (Cowboys)​

Here are the playoff seedings and final regular season standings that the simulator spit out:

Before anyone asks, I do not believe certain things will happen. Like, I do not think Green Bay will go through a four-game losing streak. This scenario goes strictly by the outlined conditions that may or may not happen and is not dependent on my personal opinion...

...except my hope Dallas does not suffer another loss, of course, lol.

EDIT: Current seeding provided by https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture