waving monkey
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Patrick Rishe ,
Contributor
I cover the economics of the sports industry.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
On Monday morning during a discussion which appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box", I addressed some of Richard Thaler's findings in his examination of whether NFL teams overvalue first-round draft picks while undervaluing later-round picks.
Despite all the advanced metrics being developed to assess ideal playing strategies, training methods, and other in-game and out-of-game dynamics, the toughest thing to assess to this day across all sports is to determine which collegians will make the best professionals. Who will have staying power? Who will be a consistent starter? Who will become a stud?
Even in horse racing, there is no magic formula. American Pharoah, on the verge of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, was bought at $300,000. With wins at the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, experts place his value between $15-20 million. With the Triple Crown, the same experts place his value at $30 million.
Intuitively, we would expect 1st round draft picks to be more likely to (a) make and stay on NFL rosters, (b) start a higher percentage of games during their careers, and (c) make the NFL’s All-Pro Team.
link/http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/...nt-is-success-to-draft-position/#648cbc5528ea
Contributor
I cover the economics of the sports industry.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
On Monday morning during a discussion which appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box", I addressed some of Richard Thaler's findings in his examination of whether NFL teams overvalue first-round draft picks while undervaluing later-round picks.
Despite all the advanced metrics being developed to assess ideal playing strategies, training methods, and other in-game and out-of-game dynamics, the toughest thing to assess to this day across all sports is to determine which collegians will make the best professionals. Who will have staying power? Who will be a consistent starter? Who will become a stud?
Even in horse racing, there is no magic formula. American Pharoah, on the verge of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, was bought at $300,000. With wins at the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, experts place his value between $15-20 million. With the Triple Crown, the same experts place his value at $30 million.
Intuitively, we would expect 1st round draft picks to be more likely to (a) make and stay on NFL rosters, (b) start a higher percentage of games during their careers, and (c) make the NFL’s All-Pro Team.
link/http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/...nt-is-success-to-draft-position/#648cbc5528ea