Two major flaws with Chip Kelly's offense

[DOUBLE WING]

if this was going to work in the nfl someone would have done it by now.

When did Spags start posting here?

 

[dogunwo]

Boy, this thread sure was premature.

Just because it doesn't always get stopped, doesn't mean it isn't flawed.

 

[DOUBLE WING]

Just because it doesn't always get stopped, doesn't mean it isn't flawed.

Nothing is perfect, but there is really no factual basis behind the OP's points.

 

[bayeslife]

Nothing is perfect, but there is really no factual basis behind the OP's points.

How is he supposed to predict a BS interference call and a fumble?

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Kelly doesn't really have "an offense". He's like a Briles or a Malzahn -- he's very good at assessing the strengths and weaknesses of his players and tailoring his play design and playcalling to what they do best.

 

[Hoofbite]

Nothing is perfect, but there is really no factual basis behind the OP's points.

Whether or not people like it, it works for them.

 

[Bizwah]

It is fun to watch. It reminds me some of the old run and shoot.

The jury is still out, but I'm not too quick to write it off.

 

[percyhoward]

What was the defense ranked in close games which would be more important.

Their defense ranked 22nd in 4th-qtr TD allowed, and 18th in that category when the margin was 8 points or less in the 4th.

 

[wileedog]

Problem one: Pace

He kills his defense, if they don't score TDs their D is dead late.

Flip side, so is the opposing defense.

 

[percyhoward]

Nothing is perfect, but there is really no factual basis behind the OP's points.

The OP may smack of sour grapes, but the stats back up his points.

Over 16 games in 2013, their offense was decidedly not as good in the red zone, and their defense was decidedly not as good in the 4th quarter.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Their defense ranked 22nd in 4th-qtr TD allowed, and 18th in that category when the margin was 8 points or less in the 4th.

So 10th to 18th. I bet most teams generally worse 4th quarter than the 1st 3. So how much worse if anything are the Eagles? And we are probably talking small sample sizes.

Let's just say i'd be fine with Kelly as our coach.

 

[yimyammer]

looks like their fitness regime and pace are allowing them to excel late in games, of course the unbelievable gift from Luck at the end can't be planned for

 

[percyhoward]

So 10th to 18th. I bet most teams generally worse 4th quarter than the 1st 3. So how much worse if anything are the Eagles?

These are rankings. It isn't normal to rank 8 spots worse, for obvious reasons.

As for opinions, I'd take Kelly in a heartbeat.

 

[ShiningStar]

Problem one: Pace

He kills his defense, if they don't score TDs their D is dead late.

Problem two: Redzone

With all the spread and gimmicks he does not have the field to do it successfully inside the twenty.

mmm one big hting Chip has going for him, he made the playoffs and right now his team sits at 2-0. lets all stop being petty and give credit where credit is due. teh road is long and hard and yes, realistically we wont know what will happen. but lets stop belitting teams for every little thing. Lets jsut leave it with the facts, Chip saw the playoffs his first year, our guy is making a process of it.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

These are rankings. It isn't normal to rank 8 spots worse, for obvious reasons.

As for opinions, I'd take Kelly in a heartbeat.

Well what's the average difference? Clearly if it's all fatigue related then every team drops. Also rankings isn't very important and average decrease in performance would be more interesting. What of for instance the difference in 10th and 18th was a few percentage points?

Where do we factor in coaches abilities to make adjustments in the 4th quarter on offense?

And again we are talking about a very small sample size.

Data is inconclusive.

 

[DOUBLE WING]

The OP may smack of sour grapes, but the stats back up his points.

Over 16 games in 2013, their offense was decidedly not as good in the red zone, and their defense was decidedly not as good in the 4th quarter.

"not as good" is not the same as "cannot do it successfully inside the 20" which the OP said. They were just above the league average last year in red zone efficiency.

 

[percyhoward]

Well what's the average difference?

Since we're talking about rankings, every spot a team drops means that many other teams move up. That's why it can't be "normal" for any one team to move up or down 8 places.

 

[percyhoward]

They were just above the league average last year in red zone efficiency.

They were not nearly as good in the red zone as they were outside it. 13th in the red zone, compared to 1st in big play percentage.

Not that it matters how a good offense scores its points anyway.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Since Chip has taken over they are 12-6 (last year and this year combined).

Sure it is early. Sure NFL teams can learn to adjust to offenses...however right now that is not a bad record to have for a new coach especially considering the combined record for the 2 years prior to him showing up was 12-20.

So whatever is going on right now for Chip...it seems to be working and working better than anyone else in the NFC East so far. Which sucks as I would love to see them fall flat on their faces.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

It works. To me, it's more of a way to create an explosive offense that is more run dominated. When you try to run the ball a lot, the issue is that it wears down the clock and doesn't give you much time to score again. Against superior opponents, running the ball a lot is nice because it can keep you in the game. But against inferior opponents...running the ball hurts because it can keep them in a game.

It's creating more possible possessions. So, if the Eagles can score on about 25% of their possessions and the opponent can score on about 20% of their possessions...increasing the plays and the possessions just means that the Eagles can further separate themselves.

I think the main issues with it is that it requires fairly simplistic play design. Not a lot of motioning and shifting. Against the pros where you have adult men that do this for a living, one can create a system during the week to communicate what blitzes you want to set up. The Eagles are going to struggle against that because they can't take the time to counter them. However, the hurry up also makes it more difficult to set up those blitzes.

The other part is that if they don't move the chains right away, it's a real problem for their defense. And this is what I think many statistically oriented football fans miss out when it comes to the offense...yes, it's great to be able to score a lot of points quickly, but it also runs the risk of burning out your defense. And come December, you may have no defense and give up a gazillion points and lose key games down the stretch because you can't stop a nosebleed.





YR