News: Two reasons the Dallas Cowboys will go over 9.5 wins

[CCBoy]

Two reasons the Dallas Cowboys will go over 9.5 wins
By Neil Greenberg

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ons-the-dallas-cowboys-will-go-over-9-5-wins/

Dallas went 12-4 and won the NFC East last season, but underwent a face-lift in the offseason which included parting ways with the NFL’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray.

Murray was a workhorse for America’s team, rushing the ball 436 times while averaging 4.7 yards during the regular season and playoffs en route to being named the league’s Offensive Player of the Year. His potential replacement, 27-year-old Darren McFadden, is injury-prone and hasn’t averaged more than 3.4 yards per carry in a season since 2011. It is also unknown if Joseph Randle or Lance Dunbar can help shoulder the load.


But here are two reasons that group might not have to be great for the Cowboys to beat the over.

Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in the league

The game charters at Pro Football Focus had Dallas’s o-line ranked second for run blocking behind the Philadelphia Eagles, where Murray signed as a free agent.


The line McFadden ran behind in 2014 was ranked 30th (minus-46.4), so better blocking will see him improve on his 1.9 yards per carry after contact from last season. Plus, Randle already showed some promise, averaging 4.2 yards per carry after contact on 51 attempts.

Murray’s impact was overstated

Yes, Murray had a great season. And yes, Murray moved the chains better than any other back. But, according to Advanced Football Analytics, that was still only worth 1.23 wins during the regular season, second to LeVeon Bell (2.05 WPA).


Randle and Dunbar combined for 0.63 WPA and McFadden cost the Raiders at minus-0.87 WPA, but that will improve with the change of scenery. And the Cowboys still have their best playmaker in wide receiver Dez Bryant, who was fifth among his peers with 2.3 WPA.

So even if there is no improvement on the defensive side of the ball, which seems unlikely with the addition of Greg Hardy and Sean Lee returning from injury, at worst the Cowboys would lose one win due to a decline in the running game. And that would still be enough to beat the over with some room to spare.

 

[JBS]

Except that isn't how it works

 

[CashMan]

Also, you can not win 9.5 games.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Also, you can not win 9.5 games.

9-6-1?

 

[xwalker]

Except that isn't how it works

All they really need to say is that the defense is likely much better this year.

Young players like Hitchens, Lawrence and Wilcox will likely be much better.

New players Jones, Gregory, Hardy look like big upgrades.

 

[Clove]

The way to get back to 12 wins is to put serious pressure on the QB defensively, and control the clock like we did on the ground last year. Meanwhile, Romo & company can put the nail in the coffin. We must be much better than last year, and show the propensity to show up against great teams.

 

[Fletch]

The way to get back to 12 wins is to put serious pressure on the QB defensively, and control the clock like we did on the ground last year. Meanwhile, Romo & company can put the nail in the coffin. We must be much better than last year, and show the propensity to show up against great teams.

Front seven gotta get it done. If so, this team could be even better than last year. Should be better.

 

[Teague31]

Two reasons?

1. A healthy Tony Romo
2. A healthy Sean Lee

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

The way to get back to 12 wins is to put serious pressure on the QB defensively, and control the clock like we did on the ground last year. Meanwhile, Romo & company can put the nail in the coffin. We must be much better than last year, and show the propensity to show up against great teams.

Which great teams did they fail to show up for?

 

[Clove]

How

Which great teams did they fail to show up for?

How many games did they lose? We can start with those. And maybe great is the wrong word, let's say winning teams.

 

[Clove]

How

How many games did they lose? We can start with those. And maybe great is the wrong word, let's say winning teams.

Let me correct my own answer. Playoff teams. When you get in the playoffs, you need to simply perform in every game.

 

[Bleu Star]

Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in the league

The game charters at Pro Football Focus had Dallas’s o-line ranked second for run blocking behind the Philadelphia Eagles, where Murray signed as a free agent.

Wait. What? I heard on this very board that Demarco would have zero chance to run successfully in filthy. Strange parallel.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

Let me correct my own answer. Playoff teams. When you get in the playoffs, you need to simply perform in every game.

So you were wrong then and now you're saying they didn't show up for GB? Considering this and your immediate reaction to post that Romo lost them the game I'm not really sure you watched it. Against winning teams last season they performed pretty well.

 

[jrumann59]

Wait. What? I heard on this very board that Demarco would have zero chance to run successfully in filthy. Strange parallel.

That was last years line they have let a few of those boys go. There line is 3/5 of what it was last year and Dallas has added at least 1 starter with a pedigree. Collins will replace one of the "weaker" links in the line, either free or Leary.

 

[DandyDon52]

And yes, Murray moved the chains better than any other back. But, according to Advanced Football Analytics, that was still only worth 1.23 wins during the regular season, second to LeVeon Bell (2.05 WPA)

That right there says this is worth nothing.
Murray not here last year would only take away 1.23 wins so no murray last year and they still go11-5 ?? yeah that makes sense.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think the defense will be much improved this season as Dallas has upgraded some areas and some young vets will be much more experienced with in Marnielii defense. Offensively of course I think if they can continue to maintain some balance on offense they can have success. I think the main thing is winning situational battles and not doing things to beat yourself.

 

[erod]

I can tell you the ONE reason they'll win.

The locker room. That team believes in itself now wholeheartedly. Jason Witten said it's the best locker room he's been in. They're champing at the bit to get going.

Hoping you'll be good and KNOWING you're damn good are two very different things.

 

[Staubacher]

So you were wrong then and now you're saying they didn't show up for GB? Considering this and your immediate reaction to post that Romo lost them the game I'm not really sure you watched it. Against winning teams last season they performed pretty well.

He waited all season to say that about Romo he had to dump it after the last game like a boat dumps bilge.

 

[Longboysfan]

If Vegas odds are still saying 9.5 - over and under on wins.
Send it in.

 

[Apollo Creed]

Mind you Philly is projected at 9, Green Bay at 10.5 and Seattle is at 11

Our schedule is tougher, so I can see us winning the East at 10-6 with Philly missing out at 9-7.