Upsets in the NFL- why you can’t count wins looking ahead

[Macnalty]

But this past Sunday the Cowboys had to kick a FG with 20 seconds in regulation against one of those " kind of trash " teams to tie the game and extend it to overtime for a chance to pull out the win.

Of course in the NFL things like this happen, I am pretty sure the Raiders beating the Ravens would fall under that category. Its the NFL no one is perfect each week.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

The real test for the Cowboys is yet to come. They have been riding high all season, even after losing to the Buccaneers in week one since they outplayed Tampa Bay for long stretches in that game. The time will come when Dallas both plays poorly and loses. That hasn't happened yet. They have played well and lost (vs. the Bucs) and have played poorly and won (Patriots).

How will they come back from the next loss, whenever it is, will determine how far they will go in 2021.

 

[Bobhaze]

The real test for the Cowboys is yet to come. They have been riding high all season, even after losing to the Buccaneers in week one since they outplayed Tampa Bay for long stretches in that game. The time will come when Dallas both plays poorly and loses. That hasn't happened yet. They have played well and lost (vs. the Bucs) and have played poorly and won (Patriots).

How will they come back from the next loss, whenever it is, will determine how far they will go in 2021.

Excellent point. We aren’t going to be 16-1. How we handle the unknown adversity that lies ahead will ultimately measure this team.

 

[Bobhaze]

As a fan... I certainly can count wins.
Ive decided we will finish with a 15-2 record.

Hope you’re right!

 

[TWOK11]

A lifetime of NFL fandom has taught me that you can generally throw out week one results, and most upsets occur when the inferior team has the better QB.

Dallas has clearly the best QB in 9 of our 11 remaining games, and in none of those 9 games is the opposing team better than us to this point. We should be fine and I don’t expect many upsets.

 

[Bobhaze]

I’m sure almost everyone predicted that this is how things would look at Week 7…back in August, lol….

The Cowboys would have a 3.5 game lead in the NFC East after 7 weeks.
The Bengals would be in first place in AFC North.
The Chiefs would be tied for last in the AFC West
The Cardinals would be undefeated in NFC.
The Seahawks would be in last place in the NFC West.
Pat Mahomes would have the same number of interceptions as jets rookie Zach Wilson.

I’m sure we all saw this coming? #UnpredictableNFL.

 

[CouchCoach]

I used the count the wins in advance, even watched them to see them win, not just play. I felt cheated if they lost.

Now, I approach every game as an unknown and anything can happen and I enjoy the games more than I ever did looking for the win.

It is a game of funny bounces and one play can affect the outcome and momentum. How would the Cowboys have done in that rematch with BUF if not for James Washington turning the game around? Larry Brown turning out to be the receiver of choice against PIT?

The beauty of the game is we never know when that play might be coming as we've already seen with Diggs this season.

In that Any Given Sunday club, you can see Harbaugh and Reid in that today. A loss is one thing, a butt whoopin' is something else. Amd McVay might be concerned about joining them, playing a winless team.

I think we really do not realize just how evenly matched these teams are with talent and the margin for error so slim with missing pieces.

And about Diggs, what happens when he doesn't make those plays? A defense dependent on turnovers is a really good reason not to count the wins prematurely.

 

[Jake]

I doubt Rams fans were expecting to be sweating it out midway through the 4th against the Lions in LA today, yet here they are.

But if we knew for certain who was going to win every week wouldn't it be kind of boring?

 

[Bobhaze]

When I was a young Cowboys fan, I looked at the schedule and counted wins. As an older man, seeing that things don’t always work out as we plan, I now count wins when they happen, lol.

 

[Proof]

It’s always a fun fan exercise to look ahead on the schedule and “count the games we’re going to win”, then predicting a final season record accordingly.

The problem is the NFL has upsets happen almost weekly. Because the talent gap between the best and worst teams is not that big, predicting wins on the schedule is much harder to do in the NFL than in college football where the talent gaps can be giant.

Just look at the upsets that have happened so far in the NFL:

• Pittsburgh upsets Buffalo in Buffalo on opening day, 23-16.
• The Saints blast the pack on opening day 38-3.
  
• The Chargers beat the chiefs in week 3 at Arrowhead 30-24.
• The giants upset the Saints 27-21. (I’m sure we all had that one called)
• The jets upset the Titans 27-24 in week 4.
• The beagles upset the Panthers when they were hot 21-18.
• The Titans beat the bills 34-31 last week on Mon night. (The team that got beat by the jets beat the AFCs best team, lol)

It’s clear by now that looking at the schedule and counting wins is not that easy. Im excited about this Cowboys team this year. But every game on the schedule- every one- will be a winnable AND lose-able game. That’s just the NFL.

the saints whooping the packers, the steelers beating the bills, and the jets beating the titans are really the only surprises imo (considering kc's struggles)

i'm gonna continue to project our schedule and if they lose games i think they'll win, so be it.

 

[Proof]

There sre

No gimmies in today's NFL with parity.

there's plenty of gimmies. just not everyone you expect to be is. but there's still plenty

 

[Proof]

But this past Sunday the Cowboys had to kick a FG with 20 seconds in regulation against one of those " kind of trash " teams to tie the game and extend it to overtime for a chance to pull out the win.

they still have the goat coach, have played competitive ball (including against the sb champs) and we won despite getting hosed by the refs

 

[Proof]

The real test for the Cowboys is yet to come. They have been riding high all season, even after losing to the Buccaneers in week one since they outplayed Tampa Bay for long stretches in that game. The time will come when Dallas both plays poorly and loses. That hasn't happened yet. They have played well and lost (vs. the Bucs) and have played poorly and won (Patriots).

How will they come back from the next loss, whenever it is, will determine how far they will go in 2021.

this is what i'm waiting for. i want to see how they bounce back, and how they respond to the lovefest slowing

 

[Jake]

Of course in the NFL things like this happen, I am pretty sure the Raiders beating the Ravens would fall under that category. Its the NFL no one is perfect each week.

The Raiders and Ravens are both 5-2, though.

The Titans beat the Bills and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks. They've also lost to the Jets.

 

[Motorola]

I’m sure almost everyone predicted that this is how things would look at Week 7…back in August, lol….

The Cowboys would have a 3.5 game lead in the NFC East after 7 weeks.
The Bengals would be in first place in AFC North.
The Chiefs would be tied for last in the AFC West
The Cardinals would be undefeated in NFC.
The Seahawks would be in last place in the NFC West.
Pat Mahomes would have the same number of interceptions as jets rookie Zach Wilson.

I’m sure we all saw this coming? #UnpredictableNFL.

And more to come.

 

[JoeKing]

It's because of upsets like we just had this past weekend that makes betting so lucrative in this league. Makes me not regret skipping fantasy football this season.

 

[lukin2006]

At some point this season we will lose a game that we should easily win…it may even come Sunday.

it’s the nature of the game…

I certainly do not worry about that. We should easily be the division winner, and we still may be a year away…

 

[ondaedg]

And about Diggs, what happens when he doesn't make those plays? A defense dependent on turnovers is a really good reason not to count the wins prematurely.

Bet you never thought you’d be writing this post 9 months ago.