Teague31
Defender of the Star
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Jerry Jones mentioned yesterday that the team has already received two offers that would have the Cowboys moving into the second round and getting an ‘08 first rounder.
To keep things in context, lets examine the Cowboys deal with Buffalo that put QB J.P. Losman in Bills colors and brought Julius Jones and Marcus Spears to Dallas.
In 2004 Dallas had the 22nd pick, just as they do today. It’s worth 780 points. Buffalo owned the 43rd overall pick (which, coincidentally, they have again this year) worth 470 points.
The difference between the two picks is 310 points, or a late 2nd rounder. Since the Bills did not have a second 2nd rounder to spare, they gave Dallas a futures pick. In trades, futures are generally promoted one round; a 2nd rounder today is worth a 1st rounder next year. A 4th now is a 3rd in ‘08, etc. Teams exact a premium of one round if they have to delay their gratification.
This tells me that both of the offers likely came from teams in the 40 to 50 range. Any team picking in the 33 through 40 range could satisfy Dallas by giving their 3rd rounder this year for the move.
Do you really want the Cowboys to move down that far? I don’t. In my opinion, that’s getting too cute. Dallas picks up an extra 08 first rounder, but severely hampers its ability to get quality this year, since there’s a chance for a second talent dropoff at just the spot the Cowboys would be landing.
In other words, not only would they miss out on Jerry’s “wow” tier that runs eight or so players deep, but they would miss out on that second level of talent as well.
That’s a wow I can’t delay. This isn’t 2004, when Dallas was in year two of the Bill Parcells rebuilding project. The team is a couple of playmakers from making a move. Moving up, something Jerry also mentioned yesterday, seems like a better option this time around.
Which gets me back to a point I raised yesterday. Which wow player could fall? On further review I think the Adrian Peterson drop I predicted weeks ago is the most likely. That said, it’s hard to see him falling too far. The Browns would be an obvious fit for him at three. The Cards could take him at five. If he passes those two, the Bills will snap him up at pick 12, guaranteed.
That’s assuming the Texans don’t take him at 10. If Jones covets Peterson, he’ll likely have to move up to Miami’s spot at nine. That’s a 570 point jump, which would cost Dallas next year’s #1 and perhaps a late pick this year.
If the Cowboys want DLs Omobi Okoye or Alan Branch, they could land them by moving up to, oh, Buffalo’s pick at 12. That would cost Dallas next year’s #1 as well.
Are you willing to play the Julius Jones trade in reverse this time?
To keep things in context, lets examine the Cowboys deal with Buffalo that put QB J.P. Losman in Bills colors and brought Julius Jones and Marcus Spears to Dallas.
In 2004 Dallas had the 22nd pick, just as they do today. It’s worth 780 points. Buffalo owned the 43rd overall pick (which, coincidentally, they have again this year) worth 470 points.
The difference between the two picks is 310 points, or a late 2nd rounder. Since the Bills did not have a second 2nd rounder to spare, they gave Dallas a futures pick. In trades, futures are generally promoted one round; a 2nd rounder today is worth a 1st rounder next year. A 4th now is a 3rd in ‘08, etc. Teams exact a premium of one round if they have to delay their gratification.
This tells me that both of the offers likely came from teams in the 40 to 50 range. Any team picking in the 33 through 40 range could satisfy Dallas by giving their 3rd rounder this year for the move.
Do you really want the Cowboys to move down that far? I don’t. In my opinion, that’s getting too cute. Dallas picks up an extra 08 first rounder, but severely hampers its ability to get quality this year, since there’s a chance for a second talent dropoff at just the spot the Cowboys would be landing.
In other words, not only would they miss out on Jerry’s “wow” tier that runs eight or so players deep, but they would miss out on that second level of talent as well.
That’s a wow I can’t delay. This isn’t 2004, when Dallas was in year two of the Bill Parcells rebuilding project. The team is a couple of playmakers from making a move. Moving up, something Jerry also mentioned yesterday, seems like a better option this time around.
Which gets me back to a point I raised yesterday. Which wow player could fall? On further review I think the Adrian Peterson drop I predicted weeks ago is the most likely. That said, it’s hard to see him falling too far. The Browns would be an obvious fit for him at three. The Cards could take him at five. If he passes those two, the Bills will snap him up at pick 12, guaranteed.
That’s assuming the Texans don’t take him at 10. If Jones covets Peterson, he’ll likely have to move up to Miami’s spot at nine. That’s a 570 point jump, which would cost Dallas next year’s #1 and perhaps a late pick this year.
If the Cowboys want DLs Omobi Okoye or Alan Branch, they could land them by moving up to, oh, Buffalo’s pick at 12. That would cost Dallas next year’s #1 as well.
Are you willing to play the Julius Jones trade in reverse this time?
