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http://www.blueandsilverreport.com/2008/05/17/the-5-10-and-25-solutions/
May 17th, 2008 by Rafael Vela
The 5, 10 and 25% Solutions
Earlier this week, I put up a study of the “Wade Phillips Effect,” a comparison of his teams the year before he arrived and their first years on staff.
What we saw from the ‘07 Cowboys was a vast improvement in consistency. A team that had been winning and losing in alternating weeks the last two years of the Parcells regime suddenly stopped yo-yoing, winning five in a row to start the season and then reeling off seven more wins after a loss to New England.
The lineups on both sides of the ball were nearly identical to those in ‘06. How then did Phillips get his team to play better?
Part of the reason is maturity. In ‘07 we saw several key young defensive players took the next steps in their respective developmental curves. Demarcus Ware added 2.5 sacks to his ‘06 figures, moving from 11.5 to 14. Chris Canty became a rock against the run at RE and showed flashes of pass rushing skill. Bradie James rebounded from a disappointing ‘06, looking slimmer, faster and more confident. His tackle totals were identical to his ‘06 numbers but anybody who watched him know he adapted very well to the new scheme.
What helped the Cowboys was a general improvement by several players of 5 to 10% over the previous year. Add these small improvments together and Dallas was able to tip some frustrating ‘06 losses into the win column. We were spared the anxiety of ‘06 Commanders and Eagles road losses, where Dallas piled up miscue upon miscue.
What also helped were four increases in secondary performance, one obvious and the other three far more subtle, that together were probably worth a couple of wins.
Cast your mind back to December ‘06. The Cowboys were 1-3 that month and the defense looked poor in all four games. The Saints ripped them for 42; the Falcons tagged them for 28; the Eagles bludgeoned them on the ground 23-7 and the Lions threw up 39, with Jon Kitna laughing afterwards at the confusion he saw in Dallas’ back seven.
People on site grouse about the ‘07 secondary but the ‘06 version was the primary culprit in the defense’s collapse. RCB Anthony Henry played with a balky knee that locked up on him. He persisted on guts, smarts and pain killers but he had no top gear. I’m sure people remember his pick of Jeff Garcia in the Eagles’ loss. Henry had a clear path down the sideline for a touchdown but was caught from behind because he didn’t have the burst.
Teams began picking on Henry deep in December and succeeded because Keith Davis and Pat Watkins were combining to play two headed Cyclops at free safety. Neither could track a ball in the air, so they both allowed passes to be completed in front of them, behind them and right next to them. At nickel back, Aaron Glenn’s game was collapsing. His surprising ‘05 performance was apparently the flicker before the flame went out.
Add these problems up and Dallas had only one coverage man who was capable of playing at a better than league average level, that being Terence Newman, and even he had his yips in December. He played poorly in the Lions game just days after calling his defensive mates out in the press.
Last year the secondary took a giant step forward based on better health, trust in youth and one key, low money signing. Henry missed several games midseason but was solid when he was healthy early and late. Teams picked on him early but stopped when he snagged several September interceptions. The healthy ‘07 Henry represented perhaps a 5-10% increase over the gimpy ‘06 edition.
Newman missed early games with a heel injury but played stronger as the season went on. He was strong in both seasons but was more consistent in ‘07. He might give up a play here and there but never had awful games, as he did the year before.
Jacques Reeves, for all the deserved grief he received, upgraded the secondary. Yes, he played soft and conceded a maddening number of 8, 10 and 12 yard passes. But we need to keep his play in context; that so-so play rated Reeves in the middle of the pack and earned him notice from K.C. Joyner as one of the better buys in free agency.
He wasn’t Kenny Gant, circa 1992 but Reeves was still a step up from Glenn, who placed 60th among corners in Joyner’s final ‘06 ratings. Reeves rarely gave up deep balls, something Glenn had started to do with regularity.
The quantum leap, of course, came at free safety, where Ken Hamlin sutured the wound in the deep center of the Cowboys’ coverage. In Joyner’s ‘05 ratings Keith Davis ranked last among coverage safeties. This is probably more a function of Davis playing out of position — he’s a strong safety forced to play the free — but his performance is what it is.
In ‘06 Pat Watkins ranked 34th among the 36 rated coverage safeties. Davis wasn’t even on the list, meaning he was even worse that 36th rated Chris Crocker. Dallas was going on several consecutive years with the worst free safety play in the league. Hamlin couldn’t help but improve, even if he was mediocre.
He was far better than mediocre, earning a Pro Bowl berth. I haven’t seen Joyner’s ‘07 metrics, so I don’t know where Hamlin rated but these numbers don’t lie: the ‘06 Cowboys were 24th in passing yards allowed. In ‘07 they rose to 13th.
In ‘06 Dallas gave up 25 TD passes, ranking 27th; last year they gave up 19, ranking 8th. The interception total took a modest jump from 18 to 21.
If Henry, Newman and Reeves were offering 5 and 10% improvments, Hamlin’s might have been 50%. It’s hard to put a clear number on it, but the results are clear.
Going into ‘08. there appear to be several areas where the Cowboys can make more small improvements off last year’s work. On the line, new coach Todd Grantham’s improved attention to technique could squeeze more from Canty, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher and even Marcus Spears.
At OLB, it’s not unreasonable to expect Anthony Spencer’s game to make a leap. The same is also true for Ware. He worked hard with Greg Ellis during camp to improve his hand usage and rush technique. That said, Joyner’s recent ratings of the game’s top rushers found that Ware made all but one of his 14 ‘07 sacks on speed and bull rush moves. If Ware can ever incorporate Ellis’ techniques, he could be looking at an 18 to 20 sack season.
At WILB, Zach Thomas offers promise that he can improve on Akin Ayodele’s disappointing ‘07. Ayodele dropped from 84 total tackles in ‘06, an average of just over 5 per game, to 57 last year, an average of 3.5 per game. Thomas has never averaged less than 10 total tackles per game the past seven years.
In the secondary, Dallas will try to move up another level or two from Reeves’ standard, hoping that either Pacman Jones, a top-5 corner in Joyner’s ‘06 numbers or top pick Mike Jenkins can provide the improvement.
Remember, the Cowboys don’t need to add Lawrence Taylor Jr. to be better. A few modest upgrades can take them from their 11th ranking last year into the top five.
Posted in News | 66 Comments » | Read more..
May 17th, 2008 by Rafael Vela
The 5, 10 and 25% Solutions
Earlier this week, I put up a study of the “Wade Phillips Effect,” a comparison of his teams the year before he arrived and their first years on staff.
What we saw from the ‘07 Cowboys was a vast improvement in consistency. A team that had been winning and losing in alternating weeks the last two years of the Parcells regime suddenly stopped yo-yoing, winning five in a row to start the season and then reeling off seven more wins after a loss to New England.
The lineups on both sides of the ball were nearly identical to those in ‘06. How then did Phillips get his team to play better?
Part of the reason is maturity. In ‘07 we saw several key young defensive players took the next steps in their respective developmental curves. Demarcus Ware added 2.5 sacks to his ‘06 figures, moving from 11.5 to 14. Chris Canty became a rock against the run at RE and showed flashes of pass rushing skill. Bradie James rebounded from a disappointing ‘06, looking slimmer, faster and more confident. His tackle totals were identical to his ‘06 numbers but anybody who watched him know he adapted very well to the new scheme.
What helped the Cowboys was a general improvement by several players of 5 to 10% over the previous year. Add these small improvments together and Dallas was able to tip some frustrating ‘06 losses into the win column. We were spared the anxiety of ‘06 Commanders and Eagles road losses, where Dallas piled up miscue upon miscue.
What also helped were four increases in secondary performance, one obvious and the other three far more subtle, that together were probably worth a couple of wins.
Cast your mind back to December ‘06. The Cowboys were 1-3 that month and the defense looked poor in all four games. The Saints ripped them for 42; the Falcons tagged them for 28; the Eagles bludgeoned them on the ground 23-7 and the Lions threw up 39, with Jon Kitna laughing afterwards at the confusion he saw in Dallas’ back seven.
People on site grouse about the ‘07 secondary but the ‘06 version was the primary culprit in the defense’s collapse. RCB Anthony Henry played with a balky knee that locked up on him. He persisted on guts, smarts and pain killers but he had no top gear. I’m sure people remember his pick of Jeff Garcia in the Eagles’ loss. Henry had a clear path down the sideline for a touchdown but was caught from behind because he didn’t have the burst.
Teams began picking on Henry deep in December and succeeded because Keith Davis and Pat Watkins were combining to play two headed Cyclops at free safety. Neither could track a ball in the air, so they both allowed passes to be completed in front of them, behind them and right next to them. At nickel back, Aaron Glenn’s game was collapsing. His surprising ‘05 performance was apparently the flicker before the flame went out.
Add these problems up and Dallas had only one coverage man who was capable of playing at a better than league average level, that being Terence Newman, and even he had his yips in December. He played poorly in the Lions game just days after calling his defensive mates out in the press.
Last year the secondary took a giant step forward based on better health, trust in youth and one key, low money signing. Henry missed several games midseason but was solid when he was healthy early and late. Teams picked on him early but stopped when he snagged several September interceptions. The healthy ‘07 Henry represented perhaps a 5-10% increase over the gimpy ‘06 edition.
Newman missed early games with a heel injury but played stronger as the season went on. He was strong in both seasons but was more consistent in ‘07. He might give up a play here and there but never had awful games, as he did the year before.
Jacques Reeves, for all the deserved grief he received, upgraded the secondary. Yes, he played soft and conceded a maddening number of 8, 10 and 12 yard passes. But we need to keep his play in context; that so-so play rated Reeves in the middle of the pack and earned him notice from K.C. Joyner as one of the better buys in free agency.
He wasn’t Kenny Gant, circa 1992 but Reeves was still a step up from Glenn, who placed 60th among corners in Joyner’s final ‘06 ratings. Reeves rarely gave up deep balls, something Glenn had started to do with regularity.
The quantum leap, of course, came at free safety, where Ken Hamlin sutured the wound in the deep center of the Cowboys’ coverage. In Joyner’s ‘05 ratings Keith Davis ranked last among coverage safeties. This is probably more a function of Davis playing out of position — he’s a strong safety forced to play the free — but his performance is what it is.
In ‘06 Pat Watkins ranked 34th among the 36 rated coverage safeties. Davis wasn’t even on the list, meaning he was even worse that 36th rated Chris Crocker. Dallas was going on several consecutive years with the worst free safety play in the league. Hamlin couldn’t help but improve, even if he was mediocre.
He was far better than mediocre, earning a Pro Bowl berth. I haven’t seen Joyner’s ‘07 metrics, so I don’t know where Hamlin rated but these numbers don’t lie: the ‘06 Cowboys were 24th in passing yards allowed. In ‘07 they rose to 13th.
In ‘06 Dallas gave up 25 TD passes, ranking 27th; last year they gave up 19, ranking 8th. The interception total took a modest jump from 18 to 21.
If Henry, Newman and Reeves were offering 5 and 10% improvments, Hamlin’s might have been 50%. It’s hard to put a clear number on it, but the results are clear.
Going into ‘08. there appear to be several areas where the Cowboys can make more small improvements off last year’s work. On the line, new coach Todd Grantham’s improved attention to technique could squeeze more from Canty, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher and even Marcus Spears.
At OLB, it’s not unreasonable to expect Anthony Spencer’s game to make a leap. The same is also true for Ware. He worked hard with Greg Ellis during camp to improve his hand usage and rush technique. That said, Joyner’s recent ratings of the game’s top rushers found that Ware made all but one of his 14 ‘07 sacks on speed and bull rush moves. If Ware can ever incorporate Ellis’ techniques, he could be looking at an 18 to 20 sack season.
At WILB, Zach Thomas offers promise that he can improve on Akin Ayodele’s disappointing ‘07. Ayodele dropped from 84 total tackles in ‘06, an average of just over 5 per game, to 57 last year, an average of 3.5 per game. Thomas has never averaged less than 10 total tackles per game the past seven years.
In the secondary, Dallas will try to move up another level or two from Reeves’ standard, hoping that either Pacman Jones, a top-5 corner in Joyner’s ‘06 numbers or top pick Mike Jenkins can provide the improvement.
Remember, the Cowboys don’t need to add Lawrence Taylor Jr. to be better. A few modest upgrades can take them from their 11th ranking last year into the top five.
Posted in News | 66 Comments » | Read more..
