Vela - What Does 21 Mean for Pick 22?

[SMCowboy]

To have 21 players with first round grades is actually a VERY large number. I think we only had like 18 in 2003 when we took Jason Witten (with Witten being one of our first round grades).

 

[TheCount]

I agree. The list of 21 won't impact the 22 pick. The 28 however is an entirely different story. I see us trading down a few spots with that pick for two reasons. One, we don't want to use a first round pick on someone we think is a second round talent. Two, $$$$$$$$.

How did we get ourselves in a position where we question using a pick because of the contract? When we made the deal with the Browns, we had to understand that it could be a high selection, and we still managed to get right up against the cap and put ourselves in a position where we have to consider whether we can AFFORD to use the pick?

 

[ejthedj]

Come on, Guys! The fun of this post is guessing who are the 21. We can at least narrow it down...

Locks in the 21
McFadden
Long
Long
Gholston
Dorsey
Ellis
Ryan
Stewart
Mendenhall
DRC
McKelvin
Jenkins
Phillips
Talib
Clady
Rivers


These 16 go before our pick and at least in the first round in nearly every mock I've seen. So, who are the other 5?

 

[SMCowboy]

Redball, if we do indeed have 21 players with first round grades, then the chances that one of our first round grades is avaible at 28 is all but a LOCK. You are GREATLY under estimating how different each teams draft board looks.

Each team plays in a different style of offense, with different styles of players needed. Some teams view RB's that are recieving threats out of the backfield as an essential part of being a top RB, other teams do not throw the ball to the RB much, so they are not as concerned with that part of a RB's game.

Not to meantion teams playing different styles of defense. Players that fit well into the 3-4 scheme are not always near as valuable to teams that play the 4-3. And Guys who are good in the 4-3 may not have a real spot in the 3-4, and thus are not as valuable. For for example, I would not expect say Derrick Harvey to be on our list of players with first round grades, as his ability to play OLB in the 3-4 is questioned, but he is viewed as one of the best 4-3 DE's in the draft and 4-3 teams would most likely have him much higher on their draft boards. Anouther guy that certainly is viewed as a first round talent by everyone, but MAY not have a first round grade for Dallas is Sedrick Ellis. While he has the tools to be a force as a 4-3 DT, but lacks the size to be an ideal 3-4 NT and we may doubt if he can fit in as a 3-4 DE.

I am not saying any of these guys are not on our draft board, I have no idea. But keep in mind that teams develope their draft board based on the type of offense and defense that they run and the players ability to play in their offense and defense. Some players to so talented, that they are no doubt first round talents, no matter the draft board. Others, are guys are only fit a certain type of offense or defense, and if you don't play that type of offense or defense, then that player may not be near as attractive to you.

 

[BlueStar II]

We pick at 28 as well. I'd say that increases the chances we'd look to trade down at 28 if all 21 guys are gone.

Unless there is a player who falls much further than expected, I think there is a distinct possibility that Jones will do his best to try to trade down from #28. I'm not saying that I advocate this trade down, but it won't surprise me at all - if Jones does it anyway.

 

[SMCowboy]

Come on, Guys! The fun of this post is guessing who are the 21. We can at least narrow it down...

Locks in the 21
McFadden
Long
Long
Gholston
Dorsey
Ellis
Ryan
Stewart
Mendenhall
DRC
McKelvin
Jenkins
Phillips
Talib
Clady
Rivers


These 16 go before our pick and at least in the first round in nearly every mock I've seen. So, who are the other 5?

You are not grasping the idea of the draft board, and how teams set up their draft board. I see several players that you have on your list of so called locks to be in the group of 21, that I have serious doubts would actually be on our list.

Let me first say, that I have no idea who actually IS on our list of first round players, and I am by no means an expert when it comes to all these players, some of them I have never seen and others I have not seen enough to make any sort of informed opinion on, so I am using ONLY the opinions of others. But below are a few that seem very questionable to me as sure things to be in our group of 21 first round players.

Sedrick Ellis - While he is usually projected going right around the 6 to 12 area of the draft. What position would he play for Dallas? Can he play NT in the 3-4? His strengths are rushing the passer not stuffing the run and his ability to hold up against massive blockers is questioned. Supposedly his best position in the 3 technique in the 4-3 defense. He is viewed as a 1 gap DT, that USUALLY does not match well with 3-4 DT's OR DE's. Not saying is definately isn't in our list of first round grades, but I could certainly see alot of reasons that he wouldn't be.

Keith Rivers - He is projected to be the idea WILL LB, basically a clone of Derrick Brooks, but where would he fit in in the 3-4 scheme? His ideal position is OLB, but the OLB's in the 3-4 are supposed to excel at rushing the QB, that is not one of Rivers strengths. Can he play one of the ILB spots in the 3-4, maybe. But would that really be playing to his strengths as a player?

Glenn Dorsey - I know most will scoff at the idea that Glenn Dorsey isn't on our list of first round grades. And the team certainly MAY feel that he is to good at what he does to not get a first round grade despite how well he fits into our 3-4 defense. But what position does he play in the 3-4? He doesn't have the ideal size of bulk to be a 3-4 NT, he really isn't enough of a pass rushers to be an ideal 3-4 DE. I am not saying that he COULDN'T play those positions, but is he such of a good fit for those positions that we would definately spend a first round pick on him? Maybe so, but it is certainly reason for skepticism.

Kenny Phillips - I have yet to see a mock draft that has him going in the TOP 25 players in the draft. Maybe he does have a first round grade by us, but maybe he doesn't. I certainly wouldn't have him in the list of sure thing to be on our list.

Jonathan Stewart - While he is no doubt is an excellent RB prospect, is he viewed as the type of RB that we are looking for to backup Barber. If we are indeed looking for a game breaker type of RB who is a threat to score anytime he touches the football, then Stewart may not be the type of RB that we are ideally looking for and thus not have a first round grade by us. Stewarts strengths are not his home run hitting ability, but instead his solid all around play.

 

[JohnnyHopkins]

I believe that their "WOW" player will be Kelly from Oklahoma and the "surprise at how we will get there" will be offering up #22 and next year's #1.

Not sure how much wow that will generate (not a ton of wow for me personally), but that is my theory nonetheless.

 

[BigDFan5]

It's like deja-vu all over again.

It's like vu-daja all over again.

 

[BigDave95]

You are not grasping the idea of the draft board, and how teams set up their draft board. I see several players that you have on your list of so called locks to be in the group of 21, that I have serious doubts would actually be on our list.

Let me first say, that I have no idea who actually IS on our list of first round players, and I am by no means an expert when it comes to all these players, some of them I have never seen and others I have not seen enough to make any sort of informed opinion on, so I am using ONLY the opinions of others. But below are a few that seem very questionable to me as sure things to be in our group of 21 first round players.

Sedrick Ellis - While he is usually projected going right around the 6 to 12 area of the draft. What position would he play for Dallas? Can he play NT in the 3-4? His strengths are rushing the passer not stuffing the run and his ability to hold up against massive blockers is questioned. Supposedly his best position in the 3 technique in the 4-3 defense. He is viewed as a 1 gap DT, that USUALLY does not match well with 3-4 DT's OR DE's. Not saying is definately isn't in our list of first round grades, but I could certainly see alot of reasons that he wouldn't be.

Keith Rivers - He is projected to be the idea WILL LB, basically a clone of Derrick Brooks, but where would he fit in in the 3-4 scheme? His ideal position is OLB, but the OLB's in the 3-4 are supposed to excel at rushing the QB, that is not one of Rivers strengths. Can he play one of the ILB spots in the 3-4, maybe. But would that really be playing to his strengths as a player?

Glenn Dorsey - I know most will scoff at the idea that Glenn Dorsey isn't on our list of first round grades. And the team certainly MAY feel that he is to good at what he does to not get a first round grade despite how well he fits into our 3-4 defense. But what position does he play in the 3-4? He doesn't have the ideal size of bulk to be a 3-4 NT, he really isn't enough of a pass rushers to be an ideal 3-4 DE. I am not saying that he COULDN'T play those positions, but is he such of a good fit for those positions that we would definately spend a first round pick on him? Maybe so, but it is certainly reason for skepticism.

Kenny Phillips - I have yet to see a mock draft that has him going in the TOP 25 players in the draft. Maybe he does have a first round grade by us, but maybe he doesn't. I certainly wouldn't have him in the list of sure thing to be on our list.

Jonathan Stewart - While he is no doubt is an excellent RB prospect, is he viewed as the type of RB that we are looking for to backup Barber. If we are indeed looking for a game breaker type of RB who is a threat to score anytime he touches the football, then Stewart may not be the type of RB that we are ideally looking for and thus not have a first round grade by us. Stewarts strengths are not his home run hitting ability, but instead his solid all around play.

You're right. I'm scoffing. Dorsey and Sed Ellis might not be perfect fits for our scheme but there is no doubt every draft board in the league will have them with 1st round grades.

There's no chance we're drafting Matt Ryan but there's also no doubt we have him with a 1st round grade.

 

[SMCowboy]

You're right. I'm scoffing. Dorsey and Sed Ellis might not be perfect fits for our scheme but there is no doubt every draft board in the league will have them with 1st round grades.

There's no chance we're drafting Matt Ryan but there's also no doubt we have him with a 1st round grade.

You are greatly misunderstanding how teams use the draft boards if you consider us not drafting Matt Ryan but still having him with a 1st round grade as well Dorsey and Ellis.

When teams setup the draft boards, they are NOT concerned with the players they have on the roster currently and what needs they have. BUT, they ARE concerned with how a certain player fits into their scheme. They may very well put a player that they know will get drafted VERY HIGH in the draft WAY down their draft board because he would not be able to play in their system.

 

[BigDave95]

You are greatly misunderstanding how teams use the draft boards if you consider us not drafting Matt Ryan but still having him with a 1st round grade as well Dorsey and Ellis.

When teams setup the draft boards, they are NOT concerned with the players they have on the roster currently and what needs they have. BUT, they ARE concerned with how a certain player fits into their scheme. They may very well put a player that they know will get drafted VERY HIGH in the draft WAY down their draft board because he would not be able to play in their system.

If you don't think the Cowboys will have Glenn Dorsey with a first round grade on their board, then you are certifiably insane.

There is a question about his knee but unless the doctors call for a complete transfemoral amputation of that leg, he will have a first round grade.

 

[ejthedj]

Kenny phillips is in the top 25 in every draft, as is Rivers

I agree we may not draft them and may not fit our system, but I think people look for talent first.

If NOBODY else has a first round grade, do you stab at a 2nd rounder w/22? Or take a Phillips or Rivers who don't quite fit? Wade always says give me players and I'll make them fit. That's what smart teams do...not leave off Dorsey and Ellis b/c they don't fit.

Dumb

 

[SMCowboy]

If you don't think the Cowboys will have Glenn Dorsey with a first round grade on their board, then you are certifiably insane.

There is a question about his knee but unless the doctors call for a complete transfemoral amputation of that leg, he will have a first round grade.

Dorsey may very well have a first round grade still. I have no idea either way. But people need to understand something about how teams develop draft boards. They do NOT set the draft boards based on where they think the rest of the league values a player. But instead based on how well a said player fits into their system. Teams absolutely have not given guys first round grades with full knowledge that the said player absolutely will be drafted high in the draft but the player does not fit their scheme.

We most certainly MAY view Dorsey as such a good player that he is a take if he fits into our scheme or not, I have no idea. But, I do know that teams don't set draft boards based on how talented players are. They set draft boards based on how well said player fits into their scheme.

 

[Redball Express]

Redball, if we do indeed have 21 players with first round grades, then the chances that one of our first round grades is avaible at 28 is all but a LOCK. You are GREATLY under estimating how different each teams draft board looks.

Each team plays in a different style of offense, with different styles of players needed. Some teams view RB's that are recieving threats out of the backfield as an essential part of being a top RB, other teams do not throw the ball to the RB much, so they are not as concerned with that part of a RB's game.

Not to meantion teams playing different styles of defense. Players that fit well into the 3-4 scheme are not always near as valuable to teams that play the 4-3. And Guys who are good in the 4-3 may not have a real spot in the 3-4, and thus are not as valuable. For for example, I would not expect say Derrick Harvey to be on our list of players with first round grades, as his ability to play OLB in the 3-4 is questioned, but he is viewed as one of the best 4-3 DE's in the draft and 4-3 teams would most likely have him much higher on their draft boards. Anouther guy that certainly is viewed as a first round talent by everyone, but MAY not have a first round grade for Dallas is Sedrick Ellis. While he has the tools to be a force as a 4-3 DT, but lacks the size to be an ideal 3-4 NT and we may doubt if he can fit in as a 3-4 DE.

I am not saying any of these guys are not on our draft board, I have no idea. But keep in mind that teams develope their draft board based on the type of offense and defense that they run and the players ability to play in their offense and defense. Some players to so talented, that they are no doubt first round talents, no matter the draft board. Others, are guys are only fit a certain type of offense or defense, and if you don't play that type of offense or defense, then that player may not be near as attractive to you.

and understood your theories.

I'm with you..I guess where I think it changes is that while there maybe some guys that drop down the board to us at #22 and #28 that maybe in the Dallas top 21 or whatever..

I just highly suspicion what will be there at #22 and #28 will be the caliber of player at those 3 positions of our need we want. Another words, Dallas may not be willing to draft them there and pay them 1st. Rd. money. The guys that would fit their draft profiles at those positions and warrant paying them as such as #22 and #28 will be gone. IMO.

I really think Dallas is going to continue at looking at the fiscal end of where they are willing to draft and what they want to commit to with these #1's and it will affect their draft decisions. This team is not on the same cash flow diet they have been on in the last 5 years to get here.

The team has to look at what it still has to re-sign and do in the next several years to remain competitive. And I think Dallas is watching it's pocketbook now at all times in FA and the draft.

I understand why you think those players may be there based on the needs of other teams.

I'm just thinking Dallas should look at what is best for them and do what they need to do to get the players they need and the value and dollars they want to pay.

So I think based on what is left for us, it will trigger us to do a trade up and a trade back with our picks at #22 and #28 to cover the spread for us.

Take a risk that we can move up and get a clearly high player of need for us using our #22 to get to somewhere in the mid-teens with a trade and get a player we don't want to play the guessing game with..I think that guy will be a CB.

..and then move back out of the #28 pick to the 2nd rd. and pickup another 2nd rd. pick from somebody and another pick on top of that to make it happen.

Then look at looking at the second tier of talent for WR and RB to fill those holes in the second rd.

Again, I'm sort of looking at what you say and factoring all that in as I state the above. I just think for what we need, 2/3 of it can be gotten in the 2nd rd. and that is something we'll look to do.

So I'm really agreeing with your post, but finding different answers going forward..



:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS:starspin

Thanks for your reply.

 

[TNCowboy]

Seems to me like a case of trying to outsmart yourself. If we had pick 18, would we only have 17 players with first round grades? It's like they're just looking for an excuse to trade down, and I really would rather we just use our picks.

It's very unlikely that the teams ahead of them would have a board that close to the Cowboys.

Almost certainly one of their top 21 players will be there when they pick.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Well i think we what the cowboys do is eliminate some of the players they now they can't get their hands on

Jake Long
Dmac
Ryan Long
Vernon Gholston
Matt Ryan

etc etc...

The list is more than likely more than 5 players i think it could be any where from 10-15 players they feel they have no shot at and don't even worry about grading them. When that player slides down the draft board that is when a trade up comes.

I think its over 30 but seeing how some players are out of reach they don't even think about it. But have plans if a player falls far enough

 

[SMCowboy]

Kenny phillips is in the top 25 in every draft, as is Rivers

I agree we may not draft them and may not fit our system, but I think people look for talent first.

If NOBODY else has a first round grade, do you stab at a 2nd rounder w/22? Or take a Phillips or Rivers who don't quite fit? Wade always says give me players and I'll make them fit. That's what smart teams do...not leave off Dorsey and Ellis b/c they don't fit.

Dumb

Yes, Rivers is in the TOP 25 of every draft, BUT where do you propose to play a 4-3 WILL LB in the 3-4 defense.

And yes you do take players and find a place for them, BUT there is a limit to how far that can go. If your entire offense is based around a timing based West Coast Style offense, then a QB like Vince Young or Michael Vick when he came out no matter how talented they were viewed as are even of remote interest to you no matter how badly you need a QB.

As for Kenny Phillips being in the TOP 25 in every draft, well here are just a few that he is NOT in the TOP 25 on:
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/sub/mockdraft.html
http://sportsline.com/nfl/draft/mock
http://www.gbnreport.com/3-roundprojection.html
http://thefootballexpert.com/abromowitzmockdraft.html
http://www.drafttek.com/round12008.html
http://BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1/draft2008.php

 

[BigDave95]

Dorsey may very well have a first round grade still. I have no idea either way. But people need to understand something about how teams develop draft boards. They do NOT set the draft boards based on where they think the rest of the league values a player. But instead based on how well a said player fits into their system. Teams absolutely have not given guys first round grades with full knowledge that the said player absolutely will be drafted high in the draft but the player does not fit their scheme.

We most certainly MAY view Dorsey as such a good player that he is a take if he fits into our scheme or not, I have no idea. But, I do know that teams don't set draft boards based on how talented players are. They set draft boards based on how well said player fits into their scheme.

This is just not right. They most certainly draft players based on fit and it's true a fringe player might slide to the next level if he's not the right fit. But a sure thing player like Dorsey will receive a first round grade because he's a first round talent. Scheme doesn't matter with elite players when teams are simply ranking them.

They rank them based on their evaluation of their talent.

Let's say you are completely set at DT. You've got two pro bowlers there. You still evaluate Dorsey in a vacuum. What kind of talent is he? Where does he deserve to be drafted? Then when it's your turn to pick, you may pass because you don't need a DT but he's still a 1st round grade on your board. And then at some point you have to ask, can we afford to pass on this highly rated player simply because it's not a position of need or do we take best player available.

The Colts will not have a 6th round grade on Matt Ryan just because they don't need a QB. You rank them based on where you think their talent level lies.

And Dorsey is unquestionably a first round grade.

 

[TheCount]

It's very unlikely that the teams ahead of them would have a board that close to the Cowboys.

Almost certainly one of their top 21 players will be there when they pick.

It's not the first 21 I'm worried about, it's the first 27. We had two first rounders, and it seems they are looking for an excuse to use just one and trade the other one.

 

[SMCowboy]

This is just not right. They most certainly draft players based on fit and it's true a fringe player might slide to the next level if he's not the right fit. But a sure thing player like Dorsey will receive a first round grade because he's a first round talent. Scheme doesn't matter with elite players when teams are simply ranking them.

They rank them based on their evaluation of their talent.

Let's say you are completely set at DT. You've got two pro bowlers there. You still evaluate Dorsey in a vacuum. What kind of talent is he? Where does he deserve to be drafted? Then when it's your turn to pick, you may pass because you don't need a DT but he's still a 1st round grade on your board. And then at some point you have to ask, can we afford to pass on this highly rated player simply because it's not a position of need or do we take best player available.

The Colts will not have a 6th round grade on Matt Ryan just because they don't need a QB. You rank them based on where you think their talent level lies.

And Dorsey is unquestionably a first round grade.

You are right teams do grade players completely in a vacuum, but they grade them in a vacuum based on how well the said player fits into their scheme. For Example, a teams that plays a 3-4 scheme will have a players like Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, and Phillip Merling ranked higher on there draft boards that Dorsey and Ellis. Why, because when ranking them in the vacuum Long, Gholston and Merling fit the type of players that fit in THEIR system better.

How much higher, I don't know I haven't sat down and evaluated each player. But a 3-4 team is not going to list Dorsey over Long, and still draft Long because he fits there system better. They will no doubt down Dorsey down on THEIR draft board, how much? I have no idea. Do they drop him from a TOP 5 pick to a TOP 15 PICK, or maybe TOP 20 pick, maybe to the early second round, I have NO IDEA. But to pretend that teams don't give ANY consideration into how well a said player would fit into their scheme when setting up their draft boards is naive.

A perfect example with RB's a few years ago. In the 1999 draft the Colts had Edgerrin James listed above Ricky Williams on there draft board. Why, because for the offense that Indy was and still does run, it was essential for a RB to be able to catch the football. Thus Ricky Williams while still very highly thought of by the Colts was NOT listed as high on there draft board as James was. For a team that a RB's ability to catch the ball is VERY VERY important, then James was viewed as a MUCH better player than Ricky Williams. But for a team like New Orleans who at the time was not as worried about a RB's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, Ricky Williams was the viewed as the best player in the draft.

Want another example, take a look at our draft board from 2002, do you really think Dallas expected Ed Reed to be the 4th safety drafted and that he would make it to the middle of the second round? I highly doubt it. Then why else would Dallas have Ed Reed ranked that low? Probably because if you look at the other Safety's that they have listed above and around Reed, they were safeties that were known more for their strong play against the run. At the time if you remember Dallas's safety's were viewed as interchangeable by the staff, they were not interested in true CF type FS's, they placed higher value in a safety's ability to play the run very strong than they did in his ability to play CF.

Does that necessarily mean that the Cowboys didn't give Dorsey a 1st round grade, absolutely not. But, what I am trying to say is we need to consider that guys like Dorsey and Ellis will NOT be as high on our draft board as they will be on say the Colts draft board. Does that mean that we will drop either or both out of being first round grades? Absolutely not, but at the same time to say for 100% sure that it won't would be just as wrong as to say that it absolutely will.