Vela - What Does 21 Mean for Pick 22?

[Chocolate Lab]

It's not the first 21 I'm worried about, it's the first 27. We had two first rounders, and it seems they are looking for an excuse to use just one and trade the other one.

What do you mean, looking for an excuse? Vela has posted before that there are usually around 18 players with first round grades, with a range of something like 17 to 23. Whether we had the first pick or the 32nd pick, that wouldn't change. We just happen to have one pick right on the line and one below it this year.

 

[SMCowboy]

It's not the first 21 I'm worried about, it's the first 27. We had two first rounders, and it seems they are looking for an excuse to use just one and trade the other one.

No teams EVER gives 32 players first round grades. Heck alot of teams will only give 18 to 20 players first round grades. I wouldn't worry at all about atleast someone that we gave a first round grade to being available at #28, the chances of that are extremely high given that we gave first round grades to 21 players....

There are SEVERAL players in this draft that simply will NOT fit very well in the 3-4. So guys like Dorsey, Ellis, Harvey, Rivers. That will cause them to be dropped farther in our rankings than in say the Colts draft boards. Not saying none would be first round grades for us, just saying that since they are not the type of player that our system requires, they will not have near the grade on our draft board as on the Colts, and most likely atleast one of them will not get a first round grade.

 

[BigDave95]

But to pretend that teams don't give ANY consideration into how well a said player would fit into their scheme when setting up their draft boards is naive.

I never said that teams don't give ANY consideration to scheme when ranking players. I simply said that it is ridiculous to think that Glenn Dorsey wouldn't have a 1st round grade on our board just because he's not the prototypical 3-4 NT. Jay Ratliff isn't that either.

You also said, and I quote "But, I do know that teams don't set draft boards based on how talented players are." That's equally as ridiculous. Scheme matters but overall talent evaluation is the key deciding factor when setting a board.

 

[TheCount]

No teams EVER gives 32 players first round grades. Heck alot of teams will only give 18 to 20 players first round grades. I wouldn't worry at all about atleast someone that we gave a first round grade to being available at #28, the chances of that are extremely high given that we gave first round grades to 21 players....

There are SEVERAL players in this draft that simply will NOT fit very well in the 3-4. So guys like Dorsey, Ellis, Harvey, Rivers. That will cause them to be dropped farther in our rankings than in say the Colts draft boards. Not saying none would be first round grades for us, just saying that since they are not the type of player that our system requires, they will not have near the grade on our draft board as on the Colts, and most likely atleast one of them will not get a first round grade.

You're missing my point entirely. Every single year, players are drafted 28th overall and lower. We can find a player worth the 28th overall pick, and 3-4 is only a defensive designation, there's a whole offense to think about.

I understand quite well that only so many players end up with 1st round grades, but you end up out smarting yourself if you say, oh only this many guys are worth taking in the first so if we have the 28th pick, we've just GOT to deal it, there's no possible way we'll find a player worth that pick.

 

[SMCowboy]

I never said that teams don't give ANY consideration to scheme when ranking players. I simply said that it is ridiculous to think that Glenn Dorsey wouldn't have a 1st round grade on our board just because he's not the prototypical 3-4 NT. Jay Ratliff isn't that either.

You also said, and I quote "But, I do know that teams don't set draft boards based on how talented players are." That's equally as ridiculous. Scheme matters but overall talent evaluation is the key deciding factor when setting a board.

The overall talent within the scheme that a team uses.

If I had to guess, I would agree that Glenn Dorsey would still have a first round grade by us, but you never know. But atleast two guys who I would be very suprised to see them get first round grades from us are Keith Rivers and Derrick Harvey. Neither are so good, that they defy rankings and both really do need to play in 4-3 defense.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

I'd imagine that Jake Long, Chris Long, Dorsey, McFadden, Ryan, DRC, McKelvin, Jenkins, Mendenhall are some of the names that are for sure in their 21. I'm pretty sure you could throw in Ellis as well.

 

[SMCowboy]

You're missing my point entirely. Every single year, players are drafted 28th overall and lower. We can find a player worth the 28th overall pick, and 3-4 is only a defensive designation, there's a whole offense to think about.

I understand quite well that only so many players end up with 1st round grades, but you end up out smarting yourself if you say, oh only this many guys are worth taking in the first so if we have the 28th pick, we've just GOT to deal it, there's no possible way we'll find a player worth that pick.

You are missing the point EVERY NFL team will only give first round grades to as many prospects as it views as worthy of getting a first round pick. MOST of the time every team has a hand full of players still available on that list when the first round is over with. Why is that, because there are 32 different teams, so if each team has even 1 player on its first round grade sheet that no other team has (not hard to do, we could easily do that if we choose 32 people off this board to say who they view the first round prospects as) then you already has MORE than enough players with first round grades by atleast 1 team to fill well over one round of the draft. Especially considering you can count on atleast 12-15 players being on everyones draft list.

As an example, here is one idea of what our list of 21 first round grades looks like:
Darren McFadden
Chris Long
Jake Long
Matt Ryan
Vernon Gholston
Sedrick Ellis
Glenn Dorsey
Ryan Clady
Leodis McKelvin
Chris Williams
Mike Jenkins
Phillip Merling
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
James Hardy
Aqib Talib
Rashard Mendenhall
Jeff Otah
Malcolm Kelly
Quentin Groves
Devin Thomas
Brandon Flowers

Do you really think that all those guys will be gone at the end of the first round? Some guys were left off that will no doubt be drafted in the first round, but may very well not be viewed as first round grades by Dallas because they would not fit what Dallas is looking for in a player.

 

[TheCount]

You are missing the point EVERY NFL team will only give first round grades to as many prospects as it views as worthy of getting a first round pick. MOST of the time every team has a hand full of players still available on that list when the first round is over with. Why is that, because there are 32 different teams, so if each team has even 1 player on its first round grade sheet that no other team has (not hard to do, we could easily do that if we choose 32 people off this board to say who they view the first round prospects as) then you already has MORE than enough players with first round grades by atleast 1 team to fill well over one round of the draft. Especially considering you can count on atleast 12-15 players being on everyones draft list.

I don't really know how to be more clear about what my concerns are, so I'll leave it where it is. We're having two different conversations at this point.