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Which Teams Drop? NFC 2007 Edition
By Rafael Vela
On Saturday I profiled four NFC bottom feeders who have fair chances of rising in 2007. Today I want to look at the reverse trend: which 2006 playoff teams are most likely to take a fall?
Let’s begin at the top, where the Chicago Bears will have to fight off a string of bad fortune that’s befallen Super Bowl losers. In seven of the past ten years, the title loser has failed to make the playoffs the following year. In two other cases, the 2002 Giants and the 2003 Rams, finished with double digit wins but lost their first playoff game. Only last year’s Seahawks, who won their weak division nearly by default, managed to win a playoff game the next year, and that came courtesy of Tony Romo’s infamous drop.
The larger point is that no Super Bowl loser in recent memory returned to finish their unfinished business. The Bears show many signs of a dropoff. They’ve lost starting RB Thomas Jones. Starting DE Alex Brown is being shopped and star linebacker Lance Briggs is in a contract standoff with management and is threatening to sit out 10 games.
Chicago did draft a potential impact player in TE Greg Olson, but you wonder if he’ll be enough to raise Rex Grossman’s standard of play?
The defense is tough when healthy, but the Bears broke down in December when DT Tommie Harris went down. The Bears rely on their line for a rush and showed little depth.
New York Giants — They’ve got an unpopular coach working off a one-year contract; they replaced Tiki Barber, their best offensive weapon, with Rueben Droughns ; hey lost left tackle Luke Petitgout and are trying to replace him with their starting left guard. At a time when the Giants should be taking some stress off erratic QB Eli Manning, they’re putting the offense on his shoulders. He could break out and make me look foolish, but he could also go the other way…
New Orleans Saints — They got no luck in ‘05. They got some in ‘06, not to mention some great coaching and great play from newcomers like Drew Brees and Reggie Bush. I picked them to flounder because I didn’t see talent on defense. I still wonder how DC Gary Gibbs got his cast of Cowboys’ castoffs like Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita to play at such a high level?
And that’s why I think the Saints could backslide. New Orleans has a weak LB corps and a so-so secondary. Yet only one of the Saints first five picks was on defense. They’re not going to surprise anybody this time around.
Dallas — It’s unlikely that the Cowboys have three 9-7 seasons in a row. Either Wade Phillips will elevate the young defense and Tony Romo will continue to improve or the Cowboys take a giant step back. The season could boil down to Romo, rookie OLB Anthony Spencer and free agent FS Ken Hamlin. If all three do their job the Cowboys are legitimate NFC title contenders. If two come through, the Cowboys should make the playoffs again. If only one of them emerges, the Cowboys will have two high draft picks next April.
By Rafael Vela
On Saturday I profiled four NFC bottom feeders who have fair chances of rising in 2007. Today I want to look at the reverse trend: which 2006 playoff teams are most likely to take a fall?
Let’s begin at the top, where the Chicago Bears will have to fight off a string of bad fortune that’s befallen Super Bowl losers. In seven of the past ten years, the title loser has failed to make the playoffs the following year. In two other cases, the 2002 Giants and the 2003 Rams, finished with double digit wins but lost their first playoff game. Only last year’s Seahawks, who won their weak division nearly by default, managed to win a playoff game the next year, and that came courtesy of Tony Romo’s infamous drop.
The larger point is that no Super Bowl loser in recent memory returned to finish their unfinished business. The Bears show many signs of a dropoff. They’ve lost starting RB Thomas Jones. Starting DE Alex Brown is being shopped and star linebacker Lance Briggs is in a contract standoff with management and is threatening to sit out 10 games.
Chicago did draft a potential impact player in TE Greg Olson, but you wonder if he’ll be enough to raise Rex Grossman’s standard of play?
The defense is tough when healthy, but the Bears broke down in December when DT Tommie Harris went down. The Bears rely on their line for a rush and showed little depth.
New York Giants — They’ve got an unpopular coach working off a one-year contract; they replaced Tiki Barber, their best offensive weapon, with Rueben Droughns ; hey lost left tackle Luke Petitgout and are trying to replace him with their starting left guard. At a time when the Giants should be taking some stress off erratic QB Eli Manning, they’re putting the offense on his shoulders. He could break out and make me look foolish, but he could also go the other way…
New Orleans Saints — They got no luck in ‘05. They got some in ‘06, not to mention some great coaching and great play from newcomers like Drew Brees and Reggie Bush. I picked them to flounder because I didn’t see talent on defense. I still wonder how DC Gary Gibbs got his cast of Cowboys’ castoffs like Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita to play at such a high level?
And that’s why I think the Saints could backslide. New Orleans has a weak LB corps and a so-so secondary. Yet only one of the Saints first five picks was on defense. They’re not going to surprise anybody this time around.
Dallas — It’s unlikely that the Cowboys have three 9-7 seasons in a row. Either Wade Phillips will elevate the young defense and Tony Romo will continue to improve or the Cowboys take a giant step back. The season could boil down to Romo, rookie OLB Anthony Spencer and free agent FS Ken Hamlin. If all three do their job the Cowboys are legitimate NFC title contenders. If two come through, the Cowboys should make the playoffs again. If only one of them emerges, the Cowboys will have two high draft picks next April.
