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By Rafael Vela
Last March I took a look at team drafts by positions, to see which positions went high on draft day and which ones dropped. I was working with a heuristic that quarterbacks rose and running backs generally fell on draft day. Some readers challenged me to put my research where my mouth was. The chart below, showing offensive drafts from the past decade, is the result. I’ve updated it for ‘08:
Position 1st Rd Top 10 % in Top 10
Quarterbacks 28 16 57%
Tackles 27 11 41%
Receivers 43 17 40%
Running Backs 30 12 40%
Tight Ends 13 2 15%
Guards 10 1 10%
Centers 3 0 0
Fullbacks 0 0 0
Some conclusions:
1. There are only four positions that get serious first round attention on offense — quarterback, offensive tackle, receivers and tailback. A tight end might sneak in now and then but guards, centers and fullbacks are afterthoughts.
Dallas follows this template. In the past 25 years the Cowboys have taken a QB — Troy Aikman, three WRs — Mike Sherrard, Michael Irvin and Alvin Harper and a running back — Emmitt Smith, from the marquee positions. They even drafted a TE, nabbing David LaFleur in ‘97. They have never, however, gone for an interior offensive lineman.
2. A lot of wide receivers will go in the first round, as they always do.
It’s been mentioned that first round WRs are bad bets. But look at the charts. Does this ever stop teams from selecting them? Receiver is easily the most popular first round position. This year will be no different. Malcolm Kelley, DeShawn Jackson and Limas Sweed are among the receivers getting first round attention, but I doubt we’ll see one taken in the top 14 to 15 and fewer than normal in the first round. Nevertheless, three or four will likely leave the board in the first 31 picks.
And odds are roughly half of them will bust. But that’s a subject for another day.
To summarize:
If you go on success, offensive tackle is the safest bet. If you like taking risks, wide receiver is your pick. Quarterbacks, however, rise to the top, ahead of OTs, because there are never enough of them.
Running backs, as you can see, fall, in relation to the other marquee spots. More first round backs have been taken than QBs or OTs, but fewer of them in the top ten.
– What does this mean for Dallas and for the board in general?
Forget QB. There’s no Brady Quinn, who could even be used as a bargaining chip. Brian Brohm might fall, but I doubt he would inspired the package that Cleveland gave Dallas last year.
There could be a short lull after Jake Long leaves the board in the top five, if not the top three, but the OTs will go in round one. There’s an abundance of them and they’re as safe a pick as you can make.
Once again, the running backs could slip a little. I’m not talking an Aaron Rogers-like fall, but Darren McFadden could be closer to pick ten than pick one. And once he’s gone, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall could wait a while. They should go in the first round, but this year’s RB crop is rich, so team that need a RB, like Arizona and Houston, may choose to address other positions in round one.
Last March I took a look at team drafts by positions, to see which positions went high on draft day and which ones dropped. I was working with a heuristic that quarterbacks rose and running backs generally fell on draft day. Some readers challenged me to put my research where my mouth was. The chart below, showing offensive drafts from the past decade, is the result. I’ve updated it for ‘08:
Position 1st Rd Top 10 % in Top 10
Quarterbacks 28 16 57%
Tackles 27 11 41%
Receivers 43 17 40%
Running Backs 30 12 40%
Tight Ends 13 2 15%
Guards 10 1 10%
Centers 3 0 0
Fullbacks 0 0 0
Some conclusions:
1. There are only four positions that get serious first round attention on offense — quarterback, offensive tackle, receivers and tailback. A tight end might sneak in now and then but guards, centers and fullbacks are afterthoughts.
Dallas follows this template. In the past 25 years the Cowboys have taken a QB — Troy Aikman, three WRs — Mike Sherrard, Michael Irvin and Alvin Harper and a running back — Emmitt Smith, from the marquee positions. They even drafted a TE, nabbing David LaFleur in ‘97. They have never, however, gone for an interior offensive lineman.
2. A lot of wide receivers will go in the first round, as they always do.
It’s been mentioned that first round WRs are bad bets. But look at the charts. Does this ever stop teams from selecting them? Receiver is easily the most popular first round position. This year will be no different. Malcolm Kelley, DeShawn Jackson and Limas Sweed are among the receivers getting first round attention, but I doubt we’ll see one taken in the top 14 to 15 and fewer than normal in the first round. Nevertheless, three or four will likely leave the board in the first 31 picks.
And odds are roughly half of them will bust. But that’s a subject for another day.
To summarize:
If you go on success, offensive tackle is the safest bet. If you like taking risks, wide receiver is your pick. Quarterbacks, however, rise to the top, ahead of OTs, because there are never enough of them.
Running backs, as you can see, fall, in relation to the other marquee spots. More first round backs have been taken than QBs or OTs, but fewer of them in the top ten.
– What does this mean for Dallas and for the board in general?
Forget QB. There’s no Brady Quinn, who could even be used as a bargaining chip. Brian Brohm might fall, but I doubt he would inspired the package that Cleveland gave Dallas last year.
There could be a short lull after Jake Long leaves the board in the top five, if not the top three, but the OTs will go in round one. There’s an abundance of them and they’re as safe a pick as you can make.
Once again, the running backs could slip a little. I’m not talking an Aaron Rogers-like fall, but Darren McFadden could be closer to pick ten than pick one. And once he’s gone, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall could wait a while. They should go in the first round, but this year’s RB crop is rich, so team that need a RB, like Arizona and Houston, may choose to address other positions in round one.
