Waldo and Twitch look at some players: LBers

[Macnalty]

This is a nice read but very simplistic, I thought it was worth sharing.

You can read about it here. http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601

The formula for Explosive Power = (vert+3.5X broad)*(weight/height)/3000.
Twitch = Shuttle - 2*10 yd split - (1.60 - 10 yd split)


Anyone with a 1.05 or higher "explosive power" score (which basically uses Vert and broad jump, compared to Weight/Height to gauge a player's explosive power), have had an extremely good chance (~80%) of not only succeeding in the NFL but being a pro bowl or > quality player. This number is pretty much a threshold, either your above 1.05, or you're not in the same group.

Another player type that has nearly as great chance of success that has a very low risk value is someone that both has a twitch score of under 1.1, and has a sub-7.0s 3 cone time.

Players with Explosive Power rating > 1.05:

• None

Players with a Twitch Score < 1.1 and 3 cone < 7 seconds:

• TJ Watt .90, 6.79
• Brooks Ellis .98, 6.8
• Duke Riley 1.02, 6.89
• Ben Gedeon .88, 6.98
• Blair Brown .96, 6.92
• Vince Biegel 1.08, 6.92
• Alex Anzalone 1.04, 6.88
• Tyus Bowser** ?, 6.75

Some thoughts

• I haven't been able to get access to 10 yard splits, so had to extrapolate from 40 yard times (40yd/2.88). Not ideal, but good enough.
  
  
• There's no power guys, this year. No one even above .99 rating. Last year Myles Jack was the only guy that tested over 1.05, with almost a Garrett (like) effort of 1.1.
  
  
• This year there is a VERY DEEP list of guys who have elite agility. Who all tested very similar to J. Bosa ( .93, 6.89).
  
  
• Reuben Foster didn't partake. I have no idea of what he is expected to run.
  
  
• Zach Cunningham just missed the cutoff, via a slightly slow 3 cone time, 1.07, 7.03
  
  
• Tyus Bowser** had a phenomenal 3 cone at 6.75. But as far as I know, he didn't run a 20ss? I have no data, so didn't get a twitch time. But I think we can assume he'd do enough to make the elite. He also had an equal best for the year with Blair Brown explosive power rating of .986. I'd expect him to overtake Z. Cunningham and perhaps be a surprisingly high pick.
  
  
• TJ Watt is the other clear stand out. And has bonus pedigree.
  
  
• J. Davis not at combine.
  

 

[rkell87]

If I understand your ideology Vince biegel is the only one that hits not only the first metric but both?

 

[Macnalty]

It is very simplistic like I stated and is for the time between the combine and draft day on April 27th, the lb are a average group this year. Yes Vince Biegel fits both categories and has a high football IQ. Some have contrasted him with the NE Patriots old LB Tedy Bruschi.

 

[rkell87]

Cool I'm just wondering why watt is a clear stand out when Ellis had a better twitch score and 1/100 slower 3-cone

 

[rkell87]

Also I think these look way different if you can get the actual 10-yard times. Pretty sure I saw a guy with a 1.6_ 10 split and a nearly 6 second 40

 

[Macnalty]

The key is getting the 10 yard times. Full participation is lacking at the combine.
The twitch formula is pretty much based on 3 cone 10 yard and 20ss.
It's a couple of formulas that were used a long time ago to assess LB's and edge guys. They're still just for discussion and simplistic.
It's not so effective at assessing the interior DL so, u can take that for what it's worth.
There's 2 types of players that excel based on these ratings. Big, strong powerful guys (explosive rating) and agile guys (twitch rating).