EGTuna
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So, during a conference call that I had little to say on, I did some basic research, and concluded based on 4 years of sack data, that finding a "War Daddy" DE is so completely random, that it's impossible to say one way or another who will be Von Miller and who will be Aundray Bruce. My best case reasonable scenario for Taco Charlton is that he gets 6-9 sacks a year, is solid against the run, not injury prone (i.e., he's reliable and available every week), and makes a few big plays a season. 5 years of that with the 28th pick would be a win when compared to the numerous DEs taken in the draft over the years.
Looking at the top10 sack lists from 2016-2013, the guys who make the list have almost nothing in common draft wise - there's UDFAs, 6ht rounders, 2nd rounders, 1st rounders, etc. It's so inexact and unpredictable. Even year to year, there's only a few guys who show up in the top 10 more than once (which makes Ware's career and HOF credentials that much more impressive).
Year Player Drafted Sacks
2016 Beasley 8 15.5
2016 Miller 1 13.5
2016 Alexander UDFA 12.5
2016 Golden 58 12.5
2016 Hunter 88 12.5
2016 Avril 92 11.5
2016 Wake UDFA 11.5
2016 Walden 167 11
2016 Kerrigan 16 11
2016 Jones 21 11
2015 Watt 11 17.5
2015 Mack 5 15
2015 Ansah 5 14.5
2015 Dunlap 54 13.5
2015 Jones 21 12.5
2015 Wilkerson 30 12
2015 Mercilus 26 12
2015 Atkins 120 11
2015 Miller 2 11
2015 Donald 13 11
2014 Houston 70 22
2014 Watt 11 20.5
2014 Dumervil 126 17
2014 Williams 1 14.5
2014 Barwin 46 14.5
2014 Miller 2 14
2014 Kerrigan 16 13.5
2014 Pierre-Paul 15 12.5
2014 Griffen 100 12
2014 Suggs 10 12
2013 Mathis 138 19.5
2013 Quinn 14 19
2013 Hardy 175 15
2013 Williams 1 13
2013 Jordan 24 12.5
2013 Gallette UDFA 12
2013 Vernon 72 11.5
2013 Allen 128 11.5
2013 Jones 21 11.5
2013 Abraham 13 11.5
Avg pick drafted (Assiging 220 to UDFA) 60
Avg w/o UDFA=220, 46
Looking at the top10 sack lists from 2016-2013, the guys who make the list have almost nothing in common draft wise - there's UDFAs, 6ht rounders, 2nd rounders, 1st rounders, etc. It's so inexact and unpredictable. Even year to year, there's only a few guys who show up in the top 10 more than once (which makes Ware's career and HOF credentials that much more impressive).
Year Player Drafted Sacks
2016 Beasley 8 15.5
2016 Miller 1 13.5
2016 Alexander UDFA 12.5
2016 Golden 58 12.5
2016 Hunter 88 12.5
2016 Avril 92 11.5
2016 Wake UDFA 11.5
2016 Walden 167 11
2016 Kerrigan 16 11
2016 Jones 21 11
2015 Watt 11 17.5
2015 Mack 5 15
2015 Ansah 5 14.5
2015 Dunlap 54 13.5
2015 Jones 21 12.5
2015 Wilkerson 30 12
2015 Mercilus 26 12
2015 Atkins 120 11
2015 Miller 2 11
2015 Donald 13 11
2014 Houston 70 22
2014 Watt 11 20.5
2014 Dumervil 126 17
2014 Williams 1 14.5
2014 Barwin 46 14.5
2014 Miller 2 14
2014 Kerrigan 16 13.5
2014 Pierre-Paul 15 12.5
2014 Griffen 100 12
2014 Suggs 10 12
2013 Mathis 138 19.5
2013 Quinn 14 19
2013 Hardy 175 15
2013 Williams 1 13
2013 Jordan 24 12.5
2013 Gallette UDFA 12
2013 Vernon 72 11.5
2013 Allen 128 11.5
2013 Jones 21 11.5
2013 Abraham 13 11.5
Avg pick drafted (Assiging 220 to UDFA) 60
Avg w/o UDFA=220, 46