Was it a mistake not to get a deal done with Lawrence?

J12B

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I’m beginning to think so.

Lawrence has reportedly made it known that he will not play under the franchise tag in 2019. Given that this is most likely David Irving’s final year, due to off the field issues, concussion concerns, and back to back season beginning 4 game suspensions, who else would opposing offenses fear rushing the quarterback. As of today, no one.

We shouldn’t expect a big year from Charleton after a subpar rookie season as a 1st rounder. Dorance Armstrong is a 4th round rookie and the expectation on him is that he will need two years to develop into a starter DE. Kony Ealey is on a one year deal. Charles Tapper has not been able to stay healthy and Randy Gregory, well we all know what has been his issue.

The outlook on defensive ends is bleak. Lawrence’s agent realizes this and they now have more leverage on next year’s contract. And not having Lawrence back in 2019 would almost certainly mean another 1st round draft pick being utilized towards the most important defensive position.

In order for Lawrence to get the deal he is looking for (Olivier Vernon type of money), he will most likely need between 9 to 11 sacks for the 2018 season. Anything above that kind of production and the asking price will go up, significantly.

Now it’s very possible that Lawrence will have a down year, meaning producing 7 sacks or below, due to either a drop off in performance or injury. In this scenario, Dallas will have more leverage in the deal making. But will he even be worth to sign if this turns out to be the case. If he under performs, for whatever reason, he is gone unless he takes a team friendly deal for one year. This most likely only happens if he played well, but his season is cut short due to injury.

Ideally, the year we want Lawrence to have is: 8 to 10 sacks, strong against the run, and created consistent disruptive pressure against opposing QBs that helped the team win a Superbowl (obviously). This production would justify an extension. If he has a year like this, the front office will have to pay him what he wants, which will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 million a year/45 million guaranteed. This will allow us to keep a strong pass rusher for the long term and allow the front office to address other positions early on in the 2019 draft.

Of course more sacks are welcome if that means they were needed to get to a Superbowl and win. But if he has a monster year and walks...well he is not going to be easy to replace at all.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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I was for signing him long term but I won't say it was a mistake not doing so. If he performs well he will probably get the same contract we would've signed him to this season. I don't think he can really make himself anymore money at this point. This year for him is about getting a long term deal and giving this organization or another organization confidence to give him a long term deal.

But Cowboys not giving him a deal doesn't hurt them.
 

speedkilz88

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It is most likely that the Cowboys offered a similar contract to the 14 million a year Danielle Hunter got with the vikings. And his agent wanted 17 million a year similar to the contract Olivier Vernon got with the giants (same agent). Also the same as the franchise tag he's already getting.


 

Cowboys22

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How can anyone answer that question without knowing any of the facts about what each side was offering?
 

Alexander

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How can anyone answer that question without knowing any of the facts about what each side was offering?
Good point. But honestly, it just does not seem from the outside looking in that they ever got serious about looking at a long term deal, on either side.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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How can anyone answer that question without knowing any of the facts about what each side was offering?
Well not only that but if he sucks this year....then of course it was the right move. Its just a premature question being asked here.
 

J12B

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Well not only that but if he sucks this year....then of course it was the right move. Its just a premature question being asked here.

Premature? A majority of decisions are made prematurely, we never know what is going to happen. My point is that we know the outlook this team has at the pass rusher position and by playing it safe with our best pass rusher it could very well cost not being able to sign him long term next year.

If you're correct that he is playing for a long term deal this season and not a potential pay raise then the correct move is allowing him to play on the tag.

However, if he puts up 14.5 sacks or more, I can see him and his agent wanting more which will more than likely be more than Dallas can afford. In this case he'll be gone and DE becomes a huge void to fill next off season.
 

GroundZero1970

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If they exclusive franchise tag him next year again he really doesnt have a choice to not play, if he doesnt sign it then he doesnt play. The exclusive tag lets no other team even talk to him. So its all just bravado from hin at this point.
 

J12B

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If they exclusive franchise tag him next year again he really doesnt have a choice to not play, if he doesnt sign it then he doesnt play. The exclusive tag lets no other team even talk to him. So its all just bravado from hin at this point.

20.6 million to tag him next year. That is a high price to pay for a single season
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Premature? A majority of decisions are made prematurely, we never know what is going to happen. My point is that we know the outlook this team has at the pass rusher position and by playing it safe with our best pass rusher it could very well cost not being able to sign him long term next year.

If you're correct that he is playing for a long term deal this season and not a potential pay raise then the correct move is allowing him to play on the tag.

However, if he puts up 14.5 sacks or more, I can see him and his agent wanting more which will more than likely be more than Dallas can afford. In this case he'll be gone and DE becomes a huge void to fill next off season.
Yeah I think its premature. We have him under contract this year. If i'm not mistaken we can franchise tag him again next year. If he sucks this year than what the decision be wrong? No.

I wanted to give him a deal because I think he's the real deal. I don't think this is some lucky season by him. I think he's a smart football player and he's not getting by on athleticism and speed he's getting by on technique and skill.

But not giving him a long term deal doesn't hurt the Cowboys. If he's looking for 17 million a year.....there's not much he can do to get more than this year. Unless he gets like 20 sacks. He was GREAT last year. He can't play much better than that. No one can. And if that warrants 17 million a year than he should have that same option next offseason.
 

PUSHfold

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Soon as I read "we shouldn't expect much from Taco Charlton after a disappointing season for a 1st rounder" I stopped reading....
He played just fine for where he was drafted and got better as the season went along.He's a DE they take time typically to produce. Am I putting my hopes of the future on him? Not yet but he looks promising.
 

J12B

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Soon as I read "we shouldn't expect much from Taco Charlton after a disappointing season for a 1st rounder" I stopped reading....
He played just fine for where he was drafted and got better as the season went along.He's a DE they take time typically to produce. Am I putting my hopes of the future on him? Not yet but he looks promising.

Perhaps, with all the hit's the Front Office has had on 1st rounders (with the exception of Bryan Jones), Charelton's rookie year was a dispaointment as he could not win the starting job. I too am hopeful he can further develop and have not even closely written him off yet. But the fact is he didn't contribute much at all.
 
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Centex

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This feels like Stephen Jones.

It seems like we weren't getting a significant discount for getting him signed now versus waiting. If there is not a significant discount why not wait?
 

J12B

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This feels like Stephen Jones.

It seems like we weren't getting a significant discount for getting him signed now versus waiting. If there is not a significant discount why not wait?

Because if he has another big year his price goes up. And also with this being David Irving's last year (most likely), Lawrence will have even more leverage next off season since there is no depth at the position at the moment.
 

lukin2006

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If he produces in 2018 ... lock him up.

I'm willing to be patient with Charlton....
 

xwalker

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I’m beginning to think so.

Lawrence has reportedly made it known that he will not play under the franchise tag in 2019. Given that this is most likely David Irving’s final year, due to off the field issues, concussion concerns, and back to back season beginning 4 game suspensions, who else would opposing offenses fear rushing the quarterback. As of today, no one.

We shouldn’t expect a big year from Charleton after a subpar rookie season as a 1st rounder. Dorance Armstrong is a 4th round rookie and the expectation on him is that he will need two years to develop into a starter DE. Kony Ealey is on a one year deal. Charles Tapper has not been able to stay healthy and Randy Gregory, well we all know what has been his issue.

The outlook on defensive ends is bleak. Lawrence’s agent realizes this and they now have more leverage on next year’s contract. And not having Lawrence back in 2019 would almost certainly mean another 1st round draft pick being utilized towards the most important defensive position.

In order for Lawrence to get the deal he is looking for (Olivier Vernon type of money), he will most likely need between 9 to 11 sacks for the 2018 season. Anything above that kind of production and the asking price will go up, significantly.

Now it’s very possible that Lawrence will have a down year, meaning producing 7 sacks or below, due to either a drop off in performance or injury. In this scenario, Dallas will have more leverage in the deal making. But will he even be worth to sign if this turns out to be the case. If he under performs, for whatever reason, he is gone unless he takes a team friendly deal for one year. This most likely only happens if he played well, but his season is cut short due to injury.

Ideally, the year we want Lawrence to have is: 8 to 10 sacks, strong against the run, and created consistent disruptive pressure against opposing QBs that helped the team win a Superbowl (obviously). This production would justify an extension. If he has a year like this, the front office will have to pay him what he wants, which will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 million a year/45 million guaranteed. This will allow us to keep a strong pass rusher for the long term and allow the front office to address other positions early on in the 2019 draft.

Of course more sacks are welcome if that means they were needed to get to a Superbowl and win. But if he has a monster year and walks...well he is not going to be easy to replace at all.

He has had two back surgeries and just 1 year healthy since.

The price won't go up much regardless of how good he is in 2018. His value was already very high based on last season.

The team gets another year to see if his back holds up and to see if he can still produce now that teams will scheme against him.

Summary: There was very little to gain for the Cowboys to sign him now and a huge amount to lose.
 
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